The Phillies send left-hander J.A. Happ (8-2, 2.75 ERA) to the mound for the rubber match of a series against the Braves, who will counter with Javier Vazquez (10-7, 2.90) at Turner Field.
After scoring a 3-2 win on Friday, Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge blew his eighth save of the season on Saturday, allowing two runs in the bottom of the ninth as the Braves rallied for a 4-3 win. Even with the loss, the Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 trips to Atlanta, but the Braves have won six of the last seven overall meetings between these two and eight of 11 this season.
Philadelphia remains on runs of 8-3 against the N.L. East, 21-9 against right-handed starters, 4-1 on the road, 35-18 on the road against teams with a winning record and 70-33 on Sundays. Atlanta is on positive streaks of 6-1 overall, 14-5 at home, 5-1 against southpaws and 11-5 as a home chalk.
Happ is 4-1 on the road this season with a 1.84 ERA, and in his last three games he’s posted a 1.71 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings on Tuesday at Chicago, getting a no-decision in his team’s 4-3, 10-inning victory. Only once in his last 10 starts has Happ allowed more than three runs, including back on July 2 when he held these Braves to two runs on seven hits in seven innings, but his offense let him down in the 5-2 loss
In three career starts against Atlanta, Happ has allowed four runs in 19 2/3 innings (1.83 ERA). Finally, Philadelphia is 5-2 in Happ’s last seven starts against N.L. East competition and 4-1 in his last five against teams with winning records.
Vazquez is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last three outings, but this is his first home start since July 19. Atlanta is unbeaten in Vazquez’s last seven outings, including an 8-2 win in Los Angeles a week ago today. The veteran right-hander has already faced these Phillies three times this season, winning two and allowing a combined seven runs in 19 innings (3.32 ERA). The Braves are on runs of 6-0 when Vazquez starts as a favorite, 4-0 when he faces the N.L. East rivals and 5-0 when he battles teams with winning records.
With Happ on the mound, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 6-2 as a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road and 15-3-1 overall, while as a team, Philadelphia has stayed below the total in 10 of 13 road games, 9 of 12 against the N.L. East and nine of 10 on the road against right-handed starters. With Vazquez on the bump, the Braves are on “under” streaks of 5-0-1 at home and 8-3-1 against teams with winning records.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in this divisional rivalry, all played at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (66-50) at Texas (65-50)
The top two teams battling it out for the A.L. wild-card wrap up a three-game set at Rangers Ballpark as the Red Sox send right-hander Junichi Tazawa (1-1, 4.05 ERA) to the mound opposite Rangers righty Dustin Nippers (3-1, 3.62).
Texas scored a 7-2 victory Saturday night after allowing Boston to steal Friday’s game 8-4 with a six-run ninth inning. The Rangers have won six of eight against the Red Sox this season, including four of five in Texas.
Terry Francona’s squad continues to struggle, currently on slides of 1-7 on the road, 4-10 against teams with winning records, 4-8 overall and 2-11 on the road against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rangers are on runs of 10-3 at home, 12-4 against winning teams, 10-2 as a favorite, 8-0 as a home chalk, 4-0 on Sundays and 8-1 against A.L. East competition.
Tazawa made the first start of his career on Tuesday at home against the Tigers and gave up three runs (one earned) in five innings, striking out six and walking two, and the Red Sox rewarded him with the 7-5 victory.
Nippert is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA at home this season and made his last home outing against these Red Sox on July 22 when he gave up one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 Texas victory. In his five starts this season, Nipper has allowed three runs or less four times, but the Rangers are just 2-3 in those five outings.
Boston has gone over the posted total in five of six against A.L. West teams and four of six against teams with winning records, but the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 12-5 on the road, 19-8-1 on the highway against right-handed starters, 17-5-1 as a ‘dog and 12-3 as a road ‘dog. Texas is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 4-0 when Nippert starts, 37-17-5 on Sundays, 38-14-2 at home, 44-16-2 overall, 26-7-2 as a favorite, 12-2 against the A.L. East and 23-4-1 as a home favorite. Finally, in this series, the “under” is on runs of 8-1 overall, including 5-1 in Arlington.
The New York Yankees are running at full speed this month – posting an 11-2 record heading into Saturday. It seems like nothing can slow the club down, besides maybe injuries.
The long MLB schedule is starting to wear on the Yankees. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who is hitting .273 BA with five RBI in August, was scratched from Friday’s game due to back spasms. Rodriguez missed the series opener Thursday because of a bruised elbow.
"I've never had a pain like that in my back," Rodriguez told the Daily News. "I went down and I was dizzy a little bit. I kind of braced myself. I didn't really feel it until an hour later. I was thinking about (the elbow). ... Hopefully I'll be ready to go (this weekend)."
A-Rod isn’t the only player in pinstripes feeling aches and pains. Shortstop Derek Jeter missed time this week with a bruised right foot after getting hit by a pitch. He was back in the lineup the past two games, going 3-for-8 with a home run and two RBI.
Even Sunday’s starter Joba Chamberlain is feeling a little worn out. He was supposed to skip his spot in the rotation this week to rest but will go against the Mariners to help ease the bullpen’s work load. Chamberlain has pitched 121 2-3 innings this season and is close to surpassing the work limit the club set for him this season.
Pick: Mariners +172
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (+105, 8.5)
Giants veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria is pulling a page out of Ozzie Guillen’s playbook. He put the word out to opposing pitchers that San Fran slugger Pablo Sandoval would not be bullied.
"I think they're trying to scare Pablo because he's young," Renteria told the San Francisco Chronicle. "I told Pablo already, 'You're such a good hitter. You can't be intimidated by anybody or you'll never hit again.' If they do something to him, we have to do something. I'm not talking for the skipper. I'm talking for myself."
Those comments came after Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher James McDonald hit Sandoval with a pitch, prompting an infield mêlée between the NL West rivals. Renteria barreled out of the Giants dugout and went toe-to-toe with Dodgers catcher Russell Martin.
Renteria went on to say that the San Francisco pitching staff should take it upon themselves to protect the club’s lone big bat and go after opponents’ top hitters if they try to intimidate the burly infielder.
The scare tactics might be working. Sandoval is batting .340 BA in August, but in the past week he is hitting just .208 BA and has no home runs or RBI. San Francisco has lost five of seven and is averaging only 2.5 runs in that span.
The left-hander is emerging as the staff ace since the departure of Cliff Lee.
Laffey has not allowed an earned run in three of his last four starts, going 3-1 in that span without surrendering a homer.
Despite being roughed up by the Los Angeles Angels July 29, Laffey has a 2.10 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in his last four outings. He is 2-0 this year vs. Minnesota, his opponent today.
J.A. Happ (Philadelphia Phillies)
The Phillies have the best road record in baseball and Happ is a key to their success.
In his last five road starts, the left-hander has pitched at least six innings without allowing more than two earned runs and deserves better than his 2-1 mark in that span.
Happ has a 1.54 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his last five road starts, twice holding his oppoonent scoreless while allowing just two homers in 35 innings.
Justin Lehr (Cincinnati Reds)
The journeyman right-hander doesn't have a huge body of work, having made just three starts. But he's been very good in the last two.
Lehr tossed a four-hit shutout against the Cubs, then followed up by somehow dancing around 11 hits and a walk in six innings, allowing just one run in a win over Albert Pujols and the Cardinals. He has walked just two in his last 15 innings.
With Edinson Volquez out for the season and Johnny Cueto slumping, the Reds should be taking a long look at Lehr for the rest of the season.
Slumping
Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles)
The right-hander won his first start after the All-Star break and has not won since.
Guthrie has lost four in a row, giving up hits, homers and walks in bunches. During his recent stumble, he had allowed 34 hits, five homers and eight walks in 25 1-3 innings.
Guthrie has given up season highs in hits twice in his last three starts.
Nick Blackburn (Minnesota Twins)
There apparently will be no second-half surge by the Twins this season, who have tumbled out of contention partially due to Blackburn's poor pitching.
The right-hander won his last two starts before the All-Star break, but the Twins are 0-5 in his second-half starts. Blackburn is 0-3 and has worked almost exclusively as a favorite, costing bettors.
In this awful stretch, Blackburn has an ERA of 8.87 and a WHIP of 1.93. He has allowed 12 hits in one start, 13 in another and lasted a season-low 1 2-3 innings in another.
Rich Harden (Chicago Cubs)
The bottom line is the Cubs have lost the right-hander's last three starts. But that doesn't tell the whole story.
Harden is just 0-1 in that stretch while receiving a measly five runs of support. His ERA is 3.00, his WHIP is 1.11 and he has 26 strikeouts in 18 innings.
The Cubs have not lost four straight games started by Harden all season.
Sunday Night Baseball: Phillies at Braves
By MARC LAWRENCE - They say the harder you work, the luckier you get
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-120, 8)
A key clash in the National League East pennant chase takes center stage when Atlanta hosts Philadelphia at Turner Field Sunday night.
The Braves send surging right-hander Javier Vazquez (10-7 2.90 ERA) to the hill against left-handed Philly phenom J.A. Happ (8-2 2.75 ERA).
Trading places
Braves 1B Andy LaRoche was traded twice at midseason, first from Atlanta to Boston and then back to Atlanta. He played in six games for the Red Sox, batting .263 BA with a homer, two doubles and three RBI.
The Red Sox decided they needed Victor Martinez and were willing to re-ship LaRoche back to Atlanta as part of a three-way deal.
"I feel like I've never left this place," LaRoche told reporters. "For the most part, it just feels like I took a break and came back. I'm never sure anymore.”
LaRoche went on to elaborate, saying "I'm not unpacking yet. But I think with the deadline past, chances are pretty good that I'm staying here."
Francisco treat
When Philly OF Ben Francisco homered to lead off the 12th inning against Cubs closer Kevin Gregg in a 4-3 Philadelphia victory over Chicago Tuesday night, it put more than a smile on manager Charlie Manuel’s face.
Gregg had entered the contest with a 0.79 career ERA against the Phils. Francisco was acquired along with LHP Cliff Lee in a trade with the Indians just prior to the trade deadline last month.
“He can play all three outfield positions, and he can spell any of those guys out there,” Manuel beamed, referring to Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. “I’m going to try and get him in the lineup when I can.”
Alternative measures
An array of injuries to the Philadelphia pitching staff signaled the acquisitions of Lee and veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez.
Former starters Antonio Bastardo (strained left shoulder) and Brett Myers (torn labrum in right hip), along with relief pitcher J.C. Romero (left forearm strain), all currently reside on the DL.
Neither Bastardo nor Myers figures to rejoin to the starting lineup when they return. Romero’s return this season is uncertain.
Nate the Great
Braves CF Nate McLouth was back in the starting lineup for the series opener Friday.
McLouth has missed four starts and three entire games with a sore left hamstring. He was acquired from Pittsburgh on June 3. His bat is critical to Atlana’s hopes of catching Philadelphia in the NL East.
An All-Star last season, McLouth is on pace for a 20-homer/20-stolen base campaign.
Choose your weapon
Despite rumors of him headed to the bullpen with the recent acquisition of Martinez, Happ remains in Philadelphia’s starting rotation.
The rookie has pitched like a veteran and continues to impress. He threw 100 pitches in six inning of work in a 4-3 win at Chicago Tuesday night.
Happ has cashed in four of his last six team starts, sporting a 2.19 ERA along the way. He has developed an interesting pitching pattern this season.
In his nine road starts, the Phillies are 5-4, going W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W, the most recent W being the victory over the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Vazquez picked up his seventh straight team start win in his most recent effort, an 8-2 win at Los Angeles last Sunday.
He owns a sharp 3.17 ERA in his last seven contests, issuing nine walks against 46 strikeouts in those games.
With the victory over the Dodgers, Vazquez reached double digits in wins for the 10th consecutive season. He also has at least 150 strikeouts for the 10th year in a row.
He has thrown 98 or more pitches in all but two of his 23 starts this season. His 171 strikeouts are the second-most in the NL behind Tim Lincecum's 198 for the Giants. In 155.3 innings of work this season, Vazquez has issued only 35 walks.
While it’s tough to fade a Philadelphia squad that owns the best road mark in the Big Leagues and is 13-3 away on Sundays, look for form to prevail over function Sunday.
The weekend wraps up with a handful of series involving teams battling it out for playoff positioning. The American League leaders in the Wild Card race, the Boston Red Sox, go for a series victory in Arlington against the Rangers.
Red Sox at Rangers (2:05 PM EST)
The top two teams in the AL Wild Card chase wrap up their three-game set at Ameriquest Field. The pitching matchup features a pair of young right-handers, as Dustin Nippert and Junichi Tazawa take the hill.
Nippert (3-1, 3.62 ERA) makes his sixth start of the season, coming off a 10 strikeout effort his last time out, a loss at Cleveland. Nippert has made only one home start this season, but it came against these Red Sox. The righty held Boston to one run and five hits in 5.2 innings of work, as the Rangers won, 3-1. The 'under' has been a profitable play with Nippert on the mound, hitting in four of his five starts.
Tazawa (1-1, 4.05 ERA) allowed three runs (one earned) in five innings against the Tigers in his first career start on Tuesday, a 7-5 victory. To refresh everyone's memory, that game featured the Kevin Youkilis/Rick Porcello brawl, which started when Tazawa drilled Miguel Cabrera with a pitch earlier in the contest.
The Rangers have been 'under' machines all season long, hitting the 'under' in 22 of their last 26 games as a home favorite. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are 18-8-1 to the 'under' their last 27 road contests against right-handed starters.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Rangers as a $1.20 home favorites, with the total set at 10 ½ (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00 on the 'under.')
Rockies at Marlins (1:35 PM EST)
Following Saturday night's rain-out, the Rockies and Marlins play two on Sunday, with plenty on the line. Florida held off Colorado on Friday night, 6-5, behind Josh Johnson's 12th victory. The Rockies begin the day two games ahead of the Marlins in the NL Wild Card race.
Colorado sends out Aaron Cook (10-4, 3.93 ERA), who makes his first start since a loss at Philadelphia on August 6. Cook suffered a toe injury, and actually benefited from the rain-out by getting an extra day of rest. Cook has performed well on the road, going 6-3 away from Coors Field. However, the Rockies are just 12-11 in Cook's 23 starts. Cook beat the Marlins at home earlier this season, allowing four hits and two runs in six innings.
Rick VandenHurk (2-1, 4.15 ERA) has pitched well in two home starts this season, giving up nine hits and four earned runs, as the Marlins are 1-1 in the righty's two home outings. Florida has been on a tear recently, winning seven of eight, while scoring six runs or more seven times in this stretch. The 'over' has been a great play for the Marlins lately, hitting in nine of the last ten games.
The Rockies are a $1.10 road 'chalk,' while the total is set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'over') according to LVSC.
Astros at Brewers (2:05 PM EST)
One week after the Astros took two of three from the Brewers in Houston, Milwaukee has turned the tables, going for the series sweep Sunday afternoon.
The Brewers send out Braden Looper (10-6, 4.99 ERA), who has actually had less success at home as opposed to the road. Milwaukee is 7-6 in Looper's 13 starts at Miller Park, as the righty has allowed five earned runs in each of his last three home outings. Looper faced the Astros five times last season as a member of the Cardinals, as St. Louis dropped four of his five starts against Houston.
Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.87 ERA) was touched up by the Marlins in his last start, giving up nine hits and six earned runs in five innings of work. Houston lost 9-8 in extra-innings, as Oswalt made his first start after missing two turns with a back injury. That loss snapped a six-game win streak in Oswalt's previous six outings. The Astros veteran was on the losing side of a 4-3 decision against the Brewers on May 21, allowing ten hits and three earned runs in 6.1 innings. This is Oswalt's first start at Miller Park since September 3, 2007, when the Astros beat the Brewers, 9-7.
LVSC has installed the Brewers as a $1.10 home favorite, while the total is set at 9.
These teams have been huge disappointments this season but despite making some trades before the deadline these are teams that seem to be playing well right now. Down the stretch these teams will serve as tough opponents and even spoilers, and will likely sit in the underdog role more often than not. Backing these clubs could be beneficial in the coming weeks and there could be significant value in many situations. Although these teams are not playing for the playoffs, the influx of young players should bring strong efforts and they could be teams that play .500 or better the rest of the way despite being losing teams for the season.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have out-scored opponents by 40 runs this season yet are sitting five games below .500 and 16 games out of the division lead. Such is life in the AL East and Toronto will continue to be a decent team that ends up with a worse record than it deserves due to playing such a tough schedule. The Blue Jays are 32-21 against the rest of the AL but just 15-27 against the AL East which features three playoff contenders.
Statistically the Blue Jays have the resume of a team with a much stronger record. Toronto is 10th in baseball in runs scored per game and fifth in baseball in team batting average. Toronto lacks clear sluggers in the lineup but the Jays have hit 135 home runs this season, ranking 7th in all of baseball. With Toronto keeping ace Roy Halladay they have one of the few true #1 starters in baseball and rookie starter Ricky Romero has had a great year and should be a Rookie of the Year finalist. Toronto ranks 10th in baseball in ERA and 5th in quality starts. The bullpen has had some rough patches but overall has had decent results. Toronto also has committed the fewest errors in baseball, yet this is a losing team.
Aside from a three-game set with the Orioles in late September the Blue Jays will only play playoff contenders the rest of the season so they will play an intricate role in the playoff race. Aside from series with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays, the Blue Jays will play Seattle, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Texas, and Detroit, leaving a brutal finish to the season that will likely cause their record to fall even further. That said, Toronto still has a quality team and this will be a tough match-up for any of those contending squads.
Oakland Athletics
The A’s were a trendy pick to compete in the AL West this season as they signed several bigger-name, but past their prime batters in the off-season and were featuring young but promising pitching. The season has not gone as expected for the A’s as the pitching staff dealt with injuries and perhaps took a bit longer to develop than hoped at the big league level. The A’s lineup has struggled all season but finally rid of costly veterans like Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, young players are stepping up to produce.
Despite featuring one of the worst team batting averages in baseball, a number deflated by playing home games in a great pitcher’s park, the A’s have been in the middle of the pack for scoring runs. Oakland has scored 4.6 runs per game and in great contrast to A’s teams of the past this is one of the top base stealing teams in the AL. Oakland’s pitching has not been great but the young rotation is starting to gel as Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Vin Mazzaro have come a long ways since this spring. Dallas Braden recently hit the DL but he has had a fine season and veteran Justin Duchscherer should be back in action soon. Andrew Bailey has also emerged as a solid closer for the A’s making this a formidable pitching staff.
Since the All Star Break the A’s are 14-14 despite playing though arguably the toughest scheduling stretch of the season. Oakland faced consecutive series against the Angels, Twins, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rangers, and yet managed to compete. The A’s are in the midst of a long home stand that could provide some excellent underdog situations as they will be facing top teams and in September the schedule will soften a bit, and Oakland should be a team that finishes well and provides some momentum for the young team heading into next season.
Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is actually on a 12-7 run and the offense has produced the numbers that many expected to see all season. Cleveland has scored over 5.7 runs per game in that span despite losing several key players in trades as Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko and Ben Francisco have all been dealt, not to mention pitchers Cliff Lee and Carl Pavano. The current Indians lineup still features several proven young hitters that were with the team for the playoff run two years ago and has now integrated some promising young talent. With the AL Central race still up in the air, Cleveland could be a spoiler team as they may benefit from addition by subtraction after underachieving most of the season.
The offense is scoring over five runs per game for the season ranking sixth in baseball, so pitching has been the key problem. Cleveland owns the worst team ERA in baseball, and quality starts have been very tough to come by particularly now without its two most reliable starters. No current Cleveland pitcher has topped 90 innings on the season and no pitcher has more than six wins. Still, there have been some promising results. Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey have both been up and down in the past few years with the Indians and both appear much more comfortable at this juncture, looking like legitimate big league pitchers and producing better results. Justin Masterson was acquired from Boston and he has been effective so far. Fausto Carmona has not recaptured his past form, but he has had a few encouraging results and still has tremendous potential on any given night.
18 of the last 25 games for Cleveland will be at home so they will have the opportunity to finish the season strong. Cleveland will play Minnesota nine times, Detroit six times, and Chicago three times before the season ends so they will play a pivotal role in deciding the division champion in a race that the current leading Tigers have not been able to pull away from. The Indians also will play two series each with Kansas City and Baltimore and the Orioles are the only remaining AL East team on the schedule so Cleveland’s record can partially be blamed on playing the best teams early in the year. Cleveland is 16 games below .500 but could actually climb significantly closer to the even water mark in the final weeks despite looking like a worse team on paper.
Inside the lines 8/16
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