My No. 1-rated NFLX total is a 20* on Cle/GB Over at 8:00 ET. Eric Mangini takes over as the head coach of the Browns and he was 8-4 SU in preseason games with the Jets. The Browns have a real QB 'battle' in the preseason, as Derek Anderson will try and hold off Brady Quinn. Anderson was terrific in 2007 (3,787 passing yards with 29 TDs and 19 INTs / 82.5 rating) but his numbers fell way off in 2008, as he fought injuries (1,615 yards with 9 TDs and 8 INTs / 66.5 rating). I'm not completely sold on Quinn but he did show some promise in a trio of starts last season (Weeks 10-12), before his season ended with a broken finger. I expect both QBs to "work hard" while they are on the field. Mangini had not named a starter for Saturday's game as I'm writing this (Friday afternoon) but that matters little, as both QBs are expected to receive an equal amount of snaps. The Browns were an awful 19-45 (.297) from 2003-006 but then went 10-6 in 2007. Although they failed to make the postseason in '07, hopes were high heading into 2008 and the team's 4-12 finish was unacceptable (thus Mangini replacing Crennel). As for the Packers, don't blame Aaron Rodgers for last year's "fall from grace." In a very tough situation (replacing Brett Favre), Rodgers completed 63.6 percent of his passes for 4,038 yards with 28 TDs and just 13 INTs (93.8 rating). Both Jennings and Driver topped 1,000 receiving yards last year and the Green Bay passing game will be just fine in 2009. RB Ryan Grant's "coming out party" in the second half of the 2007 season was a huge reason the Pack went 13-3 that year and while he wasn't as dynamic last year, he still ran for 1,203 yards (averaged just 3.9 YPC). Green Bay was 4-3 heading into its bye week last year, then lost the next two weeks by three (in OT) at Tennessee and by one the following week at Minnesota. Green Bay beat the Bears in Week 11 by the score of 37-3 but then lost five straight games before beating the Lions in Week 17. The record will show that Green Bay lost seven of its final nine games after the team's bye week but it should be pointed out that six of those lessee came by 3 (OT), 1, 4, 3, 4 and 3 (OT) points! The Packers outscored their opponents (419-380) and outgained them (by about 17 YPG), which is hardly indicative of a 6-10 team. My point is, Green Bay could easily reverse its 2008 mark and go 10-6 in 2009. While I don't expect to see too much of Rodgers in this one, I also don't see any reason why the Packers can't move the ball vs the Cleveland defense. As for the Browns, I really like their chances of scoring 24 points or more and similar to my over call on the HOF game, I believe this game should be in the 21-to-28 point range at the half. NFLX Week 1 20* Total Cle/GB Over.
My No. 1-rated NFLX Week 1 side play is a 20* on the KC Chiefs at 8:00 ET.
The Houston Texans travel to KC to open their 2009 preseason with the Chiefs. The Texans have yet to post a winning season since entering the NFL in the 2002 season but are "on the verge," after consecutive 8-8 seasons. As for the Chiefs, a new GM (Scott Pioli), new head coach (Todd Haley) and new starting QB (Matt Cassel) will try and get this franchise "back on track," after a combined 6-26 (.188) record the last two seasons. Houston head coach Gary Kubiak announced that he expects his starters to play for 12-15 snaps during the first quarter on Saturday night. Second-teamers will into play the second and third quarters and his third-teamers will play the rest of the way. With starting QB Matt Schaub so often injured (plus Sage Rosenfels now in Minnesota), expect Shaub's work to be limited in the preseason, as Kubiak tries to get work for QBs Rex Grossman (Bears) and Dan Orlovsky (Lions), who are both trying learn a new system. Grossman of course, has gone from a starter in Super Bowl 41 to fighting for a roster spot, while Orlovsky's "claim to fame" is he started seven (played in 10) of Detroit's 16 losses last year. Both Pioli and Haley have excellent pedigrees. When Bill Belichick accepted the Patriots head coaching position in 2000, Pioli joined him and the two eventually became the first personnel director/head coach tandem in league history to win three Super Bowls during a four-year span (2001–2004). Haley worked under Bill Parcells from 1997-1999 with the Jets (where he met Pioli) and also from 2004-06 in Dallas. He left for Arizona in 2007 to accept the job of OC under Ken Whisenhunt and you just may remember how well the Cards (particularly their passing) did last year. According to Haley, Cassel may play as much as 1 1/2 quarters on Saturday night (he should know!) plus Tyler Thigpen and Brodie Croyle will follow. Thigpen, who played in 14 games last year (attempted over 400 passes),and Brodie Croyle (Alabama), could both be very effective while facing non-starters. This game means little to Kubiak and Houston but my belief is that Haley wants and expects a big effort from his team. Parcells will be proud! No. 1-rated NFLX Week 1 Play 20* KC Chiefs.
Thats disguisting... ppl actually who pay for these picks got ripped off.... Ness doesnt seem to know when to lay good money... always seem to lose the big games
Larry Ness 8/15
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