[BettorBob]

I have to go run errands so I can only do a partial report today...

Plays:
5* Cubs
3* Indians
5* Giants/Mets Under
3* Giants
1* Rays
5* Brewers RL
7* Brewers
5* Astros/Brewers Under
5* Cardinals RL
12* Cardinals
5* Red Sox/Rangers Over
3* Yankees

Biggest play is obviously the Cardinals, which is a consensus among:
Wonderdog (27-11) +32.61%
LV Insiders (9-9) +13.11%
Chris Jordan (16-10) +8.57%
Bobby Cash (14-12) -3.28%
Tipps (35-21) -5.71%
Computer Picks (21-15) -93.24%

The only capper opposed to the Cards is:
Platinum (10-12) -21.73%

[tasmania12]

Thanks

[BettorBob]

Much better day today, more than makes up for yesterday's Oakland snafu.

Overall: +31.93 units, +21.15% ROI

+---------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+----------------+------+-------+-----------+
| time                | away_team             | home_team             | pick           | odds | units | net_units |
+---------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+----------------+------+-------+-----------+
| 2009-08-04 19:05:00 | Minnesota Twins       | Cleveland Indians     | Away Moneyline | -150 |     1 |      1.00 |
| 2009-08-05 14:05:00 | San Francisco Giants  | Houston Astros        | Under          | -115 |     1 |     -1.15 |
| 2009-08-05 19:05:00 | Minnesota Twins       | Cleveland Indians     | Over           |  100 |     1 |     -1.00 |
| 2009-08-05 19:05:00 | New York Yankees      | Toronto Blue Jays     | Over           | -115 |     1 |      1.00 |
| 2009-08-05 19:10:00 | Chicago Cubs          | Cincinnati Reds       | Over           | -110 |     1 |     -1.10 |
| 2009-08-05 22:10:00 | Milwaukee Brewers     | Los Angeles Dodgers   | Over           | -110 |     1 |     -1.10 |
| 2009-08-07 19:35:00 | Florida Marlins       | Philadelphia Phillies | Under          | -110 |     3 |      3.00 |
| 2009-08-07 21:10:00 | Chicago Cubs          | Colorado Rockies      | Home Moneyline | -147 |     1 |      1.00 |
| 2009-08-07 22:10:00 | Tampa Bay Rays        | Seattle Mariners      | Home Spread    |  160 |     3 |     -3.00 |
| 2009-08-07 22:15:00 | Cincinnati Reds       | San Francisco Giants  | Home Spread    | -140 |     2 |     -2.80 |
| 2009-08-08 20:10:00 | Chicago Cubs          | Colorado Rockies      | Home Moneyline | -145 |     1 |     -1.45 |
| 2009-08-09 13:35:00 | Arizona Diamondbacks  | Washington Nationals  | Home Spread    | -160 |     2 |      2.00 |
| 2009-08-09 13:35:00 | Arizona Diamondbacks  | Washington Nationals  | Home Moneyline | -101 |     2 |      2.00 |
| 2009-08-10 19:10:00 | Houston Astros        | Florida Marlins       | Away Spread    | -135 |     2 |     -2.70 |
| 2009-08-10 20:40:00 | Chicago Cubs          | Colorado Rockies      | Home Moneyline | -145 |     5 |      5.00 |
| 2009-08-10 20:40:00 | Chicago Cubs          | Colorado Rockies      | Home Spread    |  145 |     4 |      5.80 |
| 2009-08-10 21:40:00 | New York Mets         | Arizona Diamondbacks  | Over           | -105 |     5 |      5.00 |
| 2009-08-11 19:05:00 | Texas Rangers         | Cleveland Indians     | Home Moneyline | -115 |     1 |      1.00 |
| 2009-08-11 19:10:00 | Detroit Tigers        | Boston Red Sox        | Home Moneyline | -125 |     8 |      8.00 |
| 2009-08-11 19:10:00 | Houston Astros        | Florida Marlins       | Under          | -115 |     1 |     -1.15 |
| 2009-08-11 22:05:00 | Tampa Bay Rays        | Los Angeles Angels    | Over           | -105 |     3 |     -3.15 |
| 2009-08-11 22:05:00 | Tampa Bay Rays        | Los Angeles Angels    | Home Moneyline |  111 |     2 |      2.22 |
| 2009-08-12 13:35:00 | Oakland Athletics     | Baltimore Orioles     | Home Moneyline | -126 |     1 |     -1.26 |
| 2009-08-12 20:05:00 | San Diego Padres      | Milwaukee Brewers     | Home Moneyline | -138 |     3 |     -4.14 |
| 2009-08-12 20:05:00 | Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago Cubs          | Over           | -115 |     2 |      2.00 |
| 2009-08-13 15:10:00 | Pittsburgh Pirates    | Colorado Rockies      | Home Moneyline | -220 |     2 |      2.00 |
| 2009-08-13 22:10:00 | New York Yankees      | Seattle Mariners      | Away Moneyline | -200 |     1 |      1.00 |
| 2009-08-14 19:05:00 | Los Angeles Angels    | Baltimore Orioles     | Away Moneyline | -155 |     1 |     -1.55 |
| 2009-08-14 19:05:00 | Kansas City Royals    | Detroit Tigers        | Home Moneyline | -125 |     5 |      5.00 |
| 2009-08-14 22:05:00 | Chicago White Sox     | Oakland Athletics     | Home Moneyline | -160 |    11 |    -17.60 |
| 2009-08-14 22:05:00 | Chicago White Sox     | Oakland Athletics     | Home Spread    |  125 |     6 |     -6.00 |
| 2009-08-15 13:05:00 | Pittsburgh Pirates    | Chicago Cubs          | Home Moneyline | -165 |     5 |      5.00 |
| 2009-08-15 16:10:00 | San Francisco Giants  | New York Mets         | Under          |  100 |     5 |     -5.00 |
| 2009-08-15 16:10:00 | San Francisco Giants  | New York Mets         | Home Moneyline | -138 |     3 |     -4.14 |
| 2009-08-15 16:10:00 | Cleveland Indians     | Minnesota Twins       | Away Moneyline |  140 |     3 |      4.20 |
| 2009-08-15 19:05:00 | Houston Astros        | Milwaukee Brewers     | Home Spread    |  145 |     5 |      7.25 |
| 2009-08-15 19:05:00 | Houston Astros        | Milwaukee Brewers     | Under          | -120 |     5 |      5.00 |
| 2009-08-15 19:05:00 | Houston Astros        | Milwaukee Brewers     | Home Moneyline | -132 |     7 |      7.00 |
| 2009-08-15 19:15:00 | San Diego Padres      | St. Louis Cardinals   | Home Spread    | -115 |     5 |      5.00 |
| 2009-08-15 19:15:00 | San Diego Padres      | St. Louis Cardinals   | Home Moneyline | -225 |    12 |     12.00 |
| 2009-08-15 20:05:00 | Boston Red Sox        | Texas Rangers         | Over           | -105 |     5 |     -5.25 |
| 2009-08-15 22:10:00 | New York Yankees      | Seattle Mariners      | Away Moneyline | -134 |     3 |      3.00 |
+---------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+----------------+------+-------+-----------+

[n1co35]

great day today
i hope it keeps goin

[BettorBob]

Me too. We'll probably be seeing a lot of big days from now on as more and more cappers cross the 20 pick threshold.

[n1co35]

question for the units played do u add up all the cappers units betted to decide how much to bet? like if wonderdog has cards for 2 units and computer picks has cards for 2 units. will u list it as 4 units here?

[BettorBob]

question for the units played do u add up all the cappers units betted to decide how much to bet? like if wonderdog has cards for 2 units and computer picks has cards for 2 units. will u list it as 4 units here?

It's actually quite a bit more complicated than that...

For a given play (example: 2009-08-15 Cardinals Moneyline), I first look at all the handicappers who are on that particular play. I knock off all the handicappers who have 20 or fewer previous picks, and all handicappers with a negative ROI. This leaves me with only the handicappers who appear to be making money not simply through dumb luck.

For each of those handicappers, I then come up with an "experience rating", which I calculate by counting the number of picks he's made, subtracting 20, and then taking the fourth root (that is, x ^ .25). So, if a capper has 25 picks, his experience rating is (25 - 20) ^ .25 = 1.49. If he has 100 picks, his experience rating is 2.99. If he has 1000 picks, his experience rating is 5.6. The more picks he has, the greater his experience rating, but the rate at which the rating increases, decreases.

Next, I look at the number of units that the handicapper is putting on this particular play. Since he has already released more than 20 picks, I should have a pretty good idea of his average bet size, so I divide the number of units he's wagering by his average unit size. Therefore, if this bet is bigger than his average, then the result will be greater than one; if it is below his average, it will be less than 1.

I then multiply this number times his experience rating times his ROI. (I calculate his ROI as 100 * "units earned" / "units risked" - 100.) "Units earned" means all the money he has received back from his winning wagers (risk + profit).

Finally, I divide the resulting number by 10, and round it off to the nearest integer. That number ends up being the unit size for that particular capper. I then add up the unit sizes from all the other handicappers and end up with a total unit size for the play.

Though I will throw the whole bet away if I see that another handicapper with more than 20 picks and a positive ROI has a pick on the opposite side. In cases where the bet is on the ML or RL, I kill the bet if there's another bet on either the ML or RL of the other team (to avoid a situation where we might have, for example, a RL bet on the Cardinals but a ML bet on the Padres).

I plan to use this same strategy on football and basketball as well. When moving to another sport, I plan to only look at the cappers' records for that particular league. For example, if Wonderdog proves he is good at capping baseball, he will have to also prove he is good at capping NFL before his picks are calculated into the NFL consensus. Similarly, even if Anthony Redd proves he is good at capping college hoops, his record won't spill over into the NBA -- he will need to become profitable there as well (which, if you followed him earlier this year, you know he isn't). For football, though, I may need to lower the number from 20 to like 10, because there aren't very many football games compared to other sports.

[ziptoe]

[dvb02]

It's actually quite a bit more complicated than that...

For a given play (example: 2009-08-15 Cardinals Moneyline), I first look at all the handicappers who are on that particular play. I knock off all the handicappers who have 20 or fewer previous picks, and all handicappers with a negative ROI. This leaves me with only the handicappers who appear to be making money not simply through dumb luck.

For each of those handicappers, I then come up with an "experience rating", which I calculate by counting the number of picks he's made, subtracting 20, and then taking the fourth root (that is, x ^ .25). So, if a capper has 25 picks, his experience rating is (25 - 20) ^ .25 = 1.49. If he has 100 picks, his experience rating is 2.99. If he has 1000 picks, his experience rating is 5.6. The more picks he has, the greater his experience rating, but the rate at which the rating increases, decreases.

Next, I look at the number of units that the handicapper is putting on this particular play. Since he has already released more than 20 picks, I should have a pretty good idea of his average bet size, so I divide the number of units he's wagering by his average unit size. Therefore, if this bet is bigger than his average, then the result will be greater than one; if it is below his average, it will be less than 1.

I then multiply this number times his experience rating times his ROI. (I calculate his ROI as 100 * "units earned" / "units risked" - 100.) "Units earned" means all the money he has received back from his winning wagers (risk + profit).

Finally, I divide the resulting number by 10, and round it off to the nearest integer. That number ends up being the unit size for that particular capper. I then add up the unit sizes from all the other handicappers and end up with a total unit size for the play.

Though I will throw the whole bet away if I see that another handicapper with more than 20 picks and a positive ROI has a pick on the opposite side. In cases where the bet is on the ML or RL, I kill the bet if there's another bet on either the ML or RL of the other team (to avoid a situation where we might have, for example, a RL bet on the Cardinals but a ML bet on the Padres).

I plan to use this same strategy on football and basketball as well. When moving to another sport, I plan to only look at the cappers' records for that particular league. For example, if Wonderdog proves he is good at capping baseball, he will have to also prove he is good at capping NFL before his picks are calculated into the NFL consensus. Similarly, even if Anthony Redd proves he is good at capping college hoops, his record won't spill over into the NBA -- he will need to become profitable there as well (which, if you followed him earlier this year, you know he isn't). For football, though, I may need to lower the number from 20 to like 10, because there aren't very many football games compared to other sports.

Wow, that is detail.....You really put a lot into it.....Good luck, I will be keeping an eye on it.

[BettorBob]

Wow, that is detail.....You really put a lot into it.....Good luck, I will be keeping an eye on it.

Actually, I'm quite lazy so I wrote a program that does all the calculation for me.

But thanks for the encouragement.

[n1co35]

i see i can't say i fully understand it but i understand a little bit now.
thanks. and let's keep the run goin