Top pick: #1 (FUHERVER DANCING) - Part of a Gary Gullo-trained entry and only one will run. Very steady runner is exiting a good-looking win at Belmont July 19 and it's by far the best last out of any entered. Repeat of it wins this.
2nd pick: #1a (Hurricane Heat) - The other half of the Gullo-trained entry has won two in a row since being claimed and he brings good tactical speed and a nice outside post to use it from. Win candidate if he runs.
3rd pick: #9 (Chief Export) - Stalker was claimed two back by Enrique Arroyo for $14,000 and finished an even fifth, facing $25K stock last out. Drops and has a big work at Belmont for this.
4th pick: #7 (Double Or Nothing) - Freshened-up by the Mike Maker barn for the past two months, speedy gelding is working sharply and Maker is excellent off of this type of layoff (26%).
Game: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago Cubs -170 (moneyline)
The Pirates have played well at home, but when they take to the road, the wins have been hard to come by as they enter this one at just 18-42 on the season, or winning at a 30% rate. The Cubs really get it turned up playing against the poor teams in the league at home, as they have compiled a 53-19 record against them, or a 73.6% winning percentage. Take those percentages and look at this line, and ask where the value is in this one? Zach Duke has pitched well for the Pirates, but with that said, they have still lost seven of his last eight starts and on the road, they have dropped eight of his last nine. This one shows solid value for the Cubs across the board, so Chicago gets the call here.
Wunderdog 8/15
Reply With Quote