The top two quarterbacks taken in the past two NFL drafts meet at Ford Field, with Lions rookie Matthew Stafford seeing his first pro action against the Falcons and reigning Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan.
Ryan, whose first NFL throw in regular-season action last year was a touchdown pass against Detroit, will start tonight and may play the entire first quarter. Coach Mike Smith said his other three passers – Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley and rookie John Parker Wilson – will also play one quarter.
Stafford will have to wait a bit to make his NFL debut, as new Lions coach Jim Schwartz said that veteran Daunte Culpepper will start under center and play into the second quarter before giving way to Stafford. Third-string QB Drew Stanton will finish up.
The Falcons covered in three of four preseason contests in Smith’s first season at the helm last year (2-2 SU), including going 2-0 ATS on the road. Atlanta hasn’t had a losing preseason in any of the last four summers, going 11-6 SU and 11-5-1 ATS. Also, the Falcons have been a very profitable ‘dog during this stretch, going 8-2 ATS.
The Lions’ 2008 preseason was as successful as their regular season was not, as they preceded their record 0-16 campaign with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark in exhibition play. Detroit started off by winning its third consecutive preseason opener – 13-10 over the Giants as a 2½-point home chalk – and finished with three convincing victories over the Bengals (27-10), Browns (26-6) and Bills (14-6). Then the Lions began their winless regular season with a 34-21 loss at Atlanta as a 3½-point road favorite.
Prior to cashing in both games as a favorite last summer, the Lions had failed to cover in five straight August contests as a chalk.
The under is 5-2 in the Falcons’ last seven preseason contests, 4-1 in Detroit’s last five in the summer and 6-3 in the last nine overall meetings between these clubs (1-1 in the preseason).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Chicago at Buffalo (0-1, 0-0-1 ATS)
The Jay Cutler era commences for the Bears, who travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to battle the Bills.
Cutler, who was traded from Denver in the offseason, will start tonight but is only expected to participate for about 15 snaps, while the rest of the first-stringers on both sides of the ball are slated to play into the second quarter. Behind Cutler are inexperienced passers Caleb Hanie and Brett Basanez.
Trent Edwards, who went 3-for-4 for 13 yards and an INT in Sunday’s 21-18 loss to the Titans in the Hall of Fame Game, is expected to play about as much as last week and maybe “a few more plays” coach Dick Jauron said. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the No. 2 quarterback, followed by Matt Baker and Gibran Hamdan. Newly acquired WR Terrell Owens (injury) will sit out.
The Bears are 11-10 SU and 9-11-1 ATS in five preseasons for coach Lovie Smith, including 1-3 SU and ATS last year. However, Chicago has won and covered three of its last four exhibition roadies and is 6-3 ATS as a preseason pup under Smith.
The Bills, who fell behind 21-3 to Tennessee on Sunday, got a miracle spread-push as a three-point underdog when the Titans took an intentional safety on the final play of the game. Since Jauron took over as coach in 2005, Buffalo is 0-5 SU and ATS in preseason home games, all as a favorite. In fact, the Bills are 1-7 ATS as a favorite since 2005.
Although the Hall of Fame Game flew over the total, the under is still 7-3 in Buffalo’s last 10 preseason contests. Conversely, Chicago has topped the posted total in its first three exhibition games each of the last two years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tampa Bay at Tennessee (1-0, 0-0-1 ATS)
The Bucs and new coach Raheem Morris travel north to LP Field for their preseason opener against the Titans.
Tampa Bay remains unsettled at the quarterback position, but Morris has tabbed veteran Luke McCown as the starter tonight. McCown will be on the field for 12-15 plays, and Morris said the plan is the same for newcomer Byron Leftwich, who will follow McCown. Rookie Josh Freeman will start the second half with second-year pro Josh Johnson also playing down the stretch.
Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher said QB Kerry Collins, who led Tennessee to two touchdown drives in last week’s 21-18 victory over Buffalo in the Hall of Fame Game, and the rest of the starters will likely play one more series than they did against the Bills. Vince Young, who was shaky in Sunday’s contest, will once again replace Collins and play through the third quarter with the second-string. Veteran Patrick Ramsey will be the third quarterback off the bench, with rookie Alex Mortensen possibly finishing the contest.
The Buccaneers went 3-1 SU and ATS in each of the past two preseasons under former coach Jon Gruden. Last year, Tampa Bay scored upsets in each of its two exhibition road games, and it has won seven consecutive preseason openers, going 7-0 ATS.
The Titans are now on a 7-2 roll in preseason play since 2007, but just 4-4-1 ATS. Tennessee swept its two preseason home contests in 2008, but is just 2-6 ATS at LP Field in August dating to 2005 and 2-7-1 ATS as an exhibition chalk during this stretch.
The over is 5-2 in Tampa’s last seven exhibition games and 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Houston at Kansas City
The Texans will try to open the preseason with a victory for the third time in the last four years when they trek to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the new-look Chiefs.
Houston coach Gary Kubiak announced that his starters, including QB Matt Schaub, will be on the field for 12-15 snaps in the first quarter. The second-string, led by veteran QB Dan Orlovsky, will play through the third quarter, with former Bears starting quarterback Rex Grossman guiding the third-team for the duration of the game.
New chiefs coach Todd Haley suggested that his starters, including new No. 1 quarterback Matt Cassel, could play 1½ quarters. Brodie Croyle is battling with Tyler Thigpen for the No. 2 spot, while Matt Gutierrez is fourth on the depth chart.
The Texans went 2-2 SU each of the last two summers (4-3-1 ATS) and they’re 7-5 SU and 7-3-2 ATS since Kubiak took over in 2006, going 5-1 ATS on the road, all as an underdog. They’re also 2-1 SU (1-1-1 ATS) in Week 1 under Kubiak.
The Chiefs split their four preseason contests last year (1-3 ATS), but have otherwise had little success in August in recent years, going 5-15 SU and 4-16 ATS since 2004. During this five-year stretch, Kansas City is 3-7 ATS at home, 2-7 ATS as a chalk and 1-4 ATS in preseason openers.
Kansas City topped the total in three of four summer games last year, and the over is 3-0 in its last three preseason home games. Also, the over is 7-1 for Houston over the last two exhibition campaigns.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and OVER
Cleveland at Green Bay
New coach Eric Mangini takes the field with the Browns for the first time as they invade Lambeau Field for a clash with the Packers.
Mangini this week listed Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn as co-starting quarterbacks, meaning he’s not close to deciding whom he’ll put under center when the regular season begins. And while he told both passers on Friday who would start and how long each would play, he did not make that information public. Both figure to see significant action, with third-stringer Brett Ratliff moping up.
Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy wasn’t forthcoming on his plans for this contest, but expect Aaron Rodgers, beginning his second season in charge of the Packers’ offense, to start and play a handful of series Rodgers is backed up by second-year pros Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm.
The Browns went winless in the preseason last year (0-4 SU and ATS) after going 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS the previous four summers, including 6-2 SU and ATS on the road and 8-2 ATS as an underdog. On the bright side, Mangini won eight of his 12 preseason contests as coach of the Jets from 2006-08, going 4-1 ATS on the road.
The Packers haven’t had a winning August since 2002, and they’re 4-8 (5-7 ATS) in three years under McCarthy. Last year, Green Bay lost both of its preseason home games and it has split the cash in its two Lambeau contests each of the last five preseasons.
The over is 9-3 for Green Bay in the preseason under McCarthy (5-1 at home). However, the under is 6-3 in Cleveland’s last nine August outings (3-1 on the road).
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Seattle at San Diego
The Jim Mora era commences at Qualcomm Stadium as the coach guides the Seahawks against the Chargers.
Mora wasn’t specific about playing time for this contest, but did hint that veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck would only be on the field for a series or two. Veteran backup Seneca Wallace will take over for Hasselbeck and see time with the first-team offensive line. Jeff Rowe and rookie Mike Teel, who are battling for the No. 3 spot, will likely split time in the second half.
San Diego coach Norv Turner refused to specify exactly how much action his starters will get against Seattle, but did say he informed his players to be prepared to play a full half. If past history is any indication, No. 1 quarterback Philip Rivers will start and play two to three series before giving way to veteran backup Billy Volek for the rest of the half, followed by third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst. One potentially big change for San Diego: RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who hasn’t made a preseason appearance since 2005, said he’s “95 percent” certain he’ll be on the field – if only briefly – tonight.
Mora takes over for legendary coach Mike Holmgren, who finished his tenure in Seattle with two strong preseasons, going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS, including six consecutive spread-covers going back to Week 3 in 2007. Since 2004, the Seahawks are 13-7 SU and ATS overall in August, 7-3 (8-2 ATS) as a visitor, 7-2 ATS when catching points and 5-1 SU and ATS in Week 1.
The Chargers went 3-1 SU in Turner’s first two preseasons, and last year they cashed in three of four exhibition contests after going 2-2 ATS each of the previous five years. San Diego has also won seven of its last eight preseason home games (5-3 ATS).
These teams have met in August each of the last three years, with the Chargers winning twice and Seattle going 2-1 ATS. In fact, since 2002, the Seahawks are on a 6-1 roll versus San Diego, including two regular-season games.
The over is 9-2 in Seattle’s last 11 preseason contests and 13-5 in the last 18. The over is also 7-3 for San Diego in preseason action since 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (66-49) at Texas (64-50)
After a huge ninth-inning on Friday, the Red Sox send veteran right-hander Brad Penny (7-6, 5.16 ERA) to the hill at the Ballpark at Arlington looking for a second straight victory over the Rangers, who send lefty Derek Holland (5-7, 5.04) to the mound.
Boston scored six runs in the ninth inning, rallying for an 8-4 victory on Friday night and breaking a four-game losing streak to the Rangers, including three straight in Texas. The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 Saturday contests, but otherwise they are still on slides of 1-6 on the road, 4-10 against teams with winning records, 4-7 overall and 2-10 on the road against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Rangers remain on runs of 9-3 at home, 11-4 against winning teams, 9-2 as a favorite, 7-0 as a home chalk and 7-1 against the A.L. East.
Penny has not been sharp lately, going 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in his last three games. On Monday at home, Penny allowed three runs in six innings, but his offense did the job in a 6-5 win over the Tigers. The Red Sox are just 2-6 in his last eight overall and 0-4 in his last four versus A.L. West competition.
Boston has lost Penny’s last three road starts (1-4 in his last five). His last roadie was Aug. 5 when the Rays got to him for five runs on six hits in six innings and beat the Sox 6-4. Also, Penny suffered a 5-1 to Texas in June, allowing all five runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings.
Holland is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts. He threw a complete-game, three-hit shutout at the Angels on Sunday, winning 7-0. He was stellar in his last home outing as well, allowing one run on two hits in 8 2/3 innings of a 7-1 win over the Mariners, striking out 10 and walking just one.
Holland faced the Red Sox on June 6 at Fenway Park and gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-1 loss. Texas has won four straight when he faces winning teams, but it is just 1-4 when he pitches on Saturday.
Boston is riding “under” streaks of 11-5 on the road, 8-3 against southpaws, 11-3 as a road ‘dog, 6-1-1 on Saturdays and 7-3 on the road against winning teams. It’s all been “unders” for the Rangers lately, including 43-16-2 overall, 37-15-2 at home, 36-15-2 against right-handed starters, 22-4-1 as a home favorite, 4-0-1 when Holland starts and 4-1 in Holland’s last five home outings.
Finally, seven of the last eight Red Sox-Rangers clashes, including four of the last five in Texas, have stayed under the total.
If you’re looking for a good spot to back Johan Santana and the Mets, it doesn’t get much better than Saturday’s tilt against the light-hitting San Francisco Giants.
Santana (13-8, 3.00 ERA) sometimes suffers from lack of run support, but he won’t need much to get by a Giants team that ranks No. 28 in Major League Baseball at 3.99 runs per game.
The Mets are also in a favorable spot against San Francisco’s Matt Cain (12-4), who has lost his past two starts and shown some trouble with his control.
If the Mets can find a way to get a couple of runs on the board early, they should be in great shape for bettors and this is about as good of a price you could hope for.
The Mets are 5-0 in Santana’s last five starts against the National League West, and 5-1 in his past six Saturday starts.
Pick: Mets
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds (-180)
The struggling Cincinnati Reds and their woeful pitching staff might just the cure for the road-weary Nationals, who had won seven straight before starting another recent losing skid.
The heart of Washington’s lineup including Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn blasted away against mediocre pitching during their winning run. They’ll have a chance to do the same against the Reds’ Johnny Cueto, who is 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with losing records.
Conversely, the Nationals have posted a 5-1 mark against teams with losing records and face a Reds club that has given their home fans just two wins in their past 10 outings.
Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Johan Santana, New York Mets
When he’s on his game, Santana is still one of the most formidable hurlers in the game. Lately, the Mets have seen the best of him.
Santana (13-8, 3.00 ERA) is 4-1 with one no-decision in his past six starts, with two shaky outings sandwiched in between four trademark, shutdown performances.
He has given up one or fewer earned runs in the four wins and lasted at least seven innings in those victories.
Doug Davis, Arizona Diamondbacks
Davis (7-10, 3.49 ERA) has been prone to the occasional crooked number, which has hurt his overall record. But lately he has found his groove and become a model of consistency for the Diamondbacks.
The 33-year-old lefty is 3-0 with one no-decision in his past four starts. He has given two earned runs in each of his past three starts, which includes wins over the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Slumping
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
Cueto has come to exemplify the struggles of the Reds’ starting pitching, as he is 0-5 with two no-decisions in past seven starts.
The 23-year-old Cueto (8-9, 4.23 ERA) has been inconsistent, giving up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. He also has failed to make it past the sixth inning in each of his past six outings.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Cain might still be a candidate for the NL Cy Young Award, but the 24-year-old righty has had some recent struggles.
Cain (12-4, 2.44 ERA) is 0-2 with a no-decision in his past three starts. His losses include ugly outings against the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds in which he gave up nine earned runs in two starts.
He struggled with location in these losses and was tagged for a total of four home runs in the two-start span.
Saturday’s televised action on Fox continues this weekend with another trio of games, including a very important National League East battle between the Braves and Phillies. Philadelphia is fresh off a three-game sweep over the Cubs in Wrigley Field and remains in first place of the division. However, the club is only up by 4 1/2 games over the Marlins and six on Atlanta, who enters this weekend with a five-game winning streak before last night. Let’s take a closer look at this tilt, plus the other National League battle between the Giants and Mets as well.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Gamblers have to be scratching their heads right now with the Phillies. The team has been so unpredictable this year, often stepping up when you think they’re down. After losing three straight at home to the Marlins, the team rebounds with the aforementioned sweep over Chicago. Philly scored 22 runs in the victories over the Cubs, but just nine in the setbacks to the Fish. The Braves have had the Phillies’ number this year, winning seven of the first nine, including a home sweep just before the All-Star break.
Last night, Ryan Howard led off the ninth inning with a tie-breaking shot that gave the Phillies a 3-2 victory over the Braves.
On Saturday, Cole Hamels (7-7, 4.77 ERA) hopes he can get some offensive support since he hasn’t been on top of his game lately. Philadelphia has dropped two straight with Hamels, who has been tagged for 15 hits and 10 earned runs in the two losses. The lefty does own a 7-4 career mark against the Braves but in his one start this season against them, he was lit up for nine hits and seven earned runs in just four innings. Total players would expect Hamels to be an ‘under’ pitcher but it’s been the opposite. The ‘over’ is on a 7-1 in his last eight efforts. Lastly, the day games have been bad news this year for Hamels, who is 0-4 with a 5.45 ERA in six outings. If you’re looking for another reason to fade Cole, then look at the Braves’ record (24-16) against lefties.
The Braves look to stay hot behind the right-handed Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.12 ERA). Even though the club is just 1-4 in the last five, his most recent start opened up some eyes. Kawakami threw seven scoreless innings and gave up just four hits on Aug. 8 as Atlanta nipped the Dodgers 2-1. Kawakami faced the Phils on May 10 and he helped the Braves earn a 4-2 victory by giving up two hits and two runs over five innings. The Japanese product might not have the most glaring stats but he hasn’t been helped at all. Atlanta has gone 9-12 in his 21 starts and the offense has produced four runs or less in all 12 losses. In the nine wins, the team his notched four runs or more on seven occasions. Gamblers leaning to KK today might want to look at a team total ‘over’ instead.
All the numbers in the pitching matchup appear to lean towards Kawakami, but the oddsmakers have still made the Phillies a short favorite. It seems very fair considering the Phillies own a league-best 36-19 record on the road which has returned a profit of over 19 units.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets
The Giants begin their 11-game road trip in Flushing against the banged-up Mets. San Francisco is eight games better than New York in the win column but that hasn’t mattered this year. New York captured three of the first four in the Bay Area and has owned the Giants on its home turf. San Francisco has lost five in a row in Queens and 14 of 18 while visiting the Mets, including Friday's setback. The Mets’ Bobby Parnell went a solid six innings and the club blanked the Giants 3-0. The bullpen finished up the final three innings, and reliever Francisco Rodriguez notched his 26th save of the season.
If the team from Northern California wants to remain in the NL Wild Card hunt, then it better win this series. That’s a lot easier said than done for the Giants and its fair to say that Saturday’s matchup will be their toughest test.
New York will throw Johan Santana (13-8, 3.00 ERA) to the mound this afternoon. The lefty is coming off an impressive 5-1 victory over the Padres last Sunday, which saw him go eight innings. Santana hasn’t received much offensive support in the past but the Mets’ attack has posted four-plus runs in each of his last six starts. The former Cy Young winner is 8-2 with a 2.07 ERA at home this season, plus he’s 2-0 in his career against the Giants. Santana has produced a 7-4 record with a 2.48 ERA under the sun this season. San Francisco is 17-13 versus lefties this year.
San Francisco will try to counter the Mets’ dominance at home by Santana with its own road warrior Matt Cain (12-4, 2.44 ERA). The big right-hander gave up a season-high five runs in last Sunday’s 5-2 defeat to the Reds, which was his second straight setback. Despite the losses, he still boasts a 2.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. It should also be noted that in his four losses, the Giants’ offense has managed a total of nine runs. The afternoon affair should help Cain, who has gone 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA in day games this year. He’s faced the Mets once this year and gave up no runs and three hits over six innings.
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The White Sox own a league-best 14-4 record on Saturday, followed by the Rays (12-6) and Red Sox (12-6). Looking for a couple clubs that haven’t played well on this day? Take a quick peek at the Reds (4-14) and Indians (5-13).
‘Chalk’ players looking for automatic winners might turn their attention to Detroit (-250) against Kansas City and St. Louis (-230) over San Diego tonight. The Cards have beaten the Padres seven out of eight, and the Tigers own a 7-3 mark against the Royals. If you toss the pair into a two-team parlay, you’ll get an even-money return.
The New York Yankees have been on fire in the month of August, posting an 11-2 record. All gamblers know that you have to lay a healthy price when backing the Bronx Bombers but the run-line has been golden during this stretch. All of the 11 victories except one were by more than one run. After two more contests against Seattle, the Yanks head to Oakland for three and then a big three-game set at Fenway Park against the Sox.
It’s really amazes me looking at the Totals Report this year and seeing Texas as a clear-cut ‘under’ team, considering the ball used to fly out of Arlington. The Rangers have watched the ‘under’ go 71-39 (65%) on the season, including 37-19 at home. Even though Friday's game saw 12 total runs, 'under' backers were on the right side. The Red Sox put up a 6-spot in their final frame and rallied for an 8-4 win over the Rangers.
Inside the lines 8/15
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