ST LOUIS (2 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 1) - 8/14/2009, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 4) - 8/14/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 8/14/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in August games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home lined games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in dome games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 8/14/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
DENVER is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL player props worth playing
By STEPHEN NOVER - Experience, knowledge and contacts spell long term profit
LAS VEGAS – Some sportsbooks are picking up on the popularity of fantasy football by offering various NFL player propositions.
This is great news for fundamental handicappers, who really study matchups and player projections.
The Venetian is one hotel in Las Vegas offering a multitude of over/under player props.
While the bookmakers there have finally taken down Michael Crabtree and Antonio Bryant after getting pounded on their respective under pass reception totals, other bargains can be found.
Here are some I like:
Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals (Under 25.5 touchdown passes)
What are the odds of the 38-year-old Warner staying healthy two years in a row? It hasn’t happened since 2001. The Cardinals have a new offensive coordinator and are stressing more of a balanced attack. Their ground game should be much improved with Edgerrin James gone and rookie Beanie Wells and promising Tim Hightower getting carries.
Rookie wide receivers rarely make an impact. The Raiders are a ground-oriented team with erratic and inaccurate JaMarcus Russell at quarterback. He’s backed up by short-throwing, over-the-hill Jeff Garcia. Heyward-Bey is a deep threat, who is frequently injured.
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (Over 7.5 rushing/receiving touchdowns)
Gore is primed for a big season. He’s healthy and the 49ers have better receivers than before to keep defenses from stacking the line against him.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (Under 16.5 touchdown passes)
It’s too much to ask Flacco to average more than one touchdown pass per game. Flacco was simply a game-manager last season. He’s having a terrible camp so far, throwing interceptions, missing open receivers and making wrong calls at the line of scrimmage. The Ravens remain a run-first, conservative offense. They also have wide receiver injuries.
Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 74.5 receptions)
Winslow is another guy who gets hurt every year because he’s so reckless. Tampa Bay could have the worst quarterback situation in the league. As a tight end, Winslow will be called on to block a lot.
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (12-1 to have the most passing yards)
Manning is a cinch to throw for at least 4,000 yards. I’d rather have Manning at these odds than Drew Brees at 5-2 or Tom Brady at 6-1.
Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos (70-1 to have the most receiving yards)
The Broncos are going to be throwing a lot because their defense is so bad. Royal is coming into his own as a possession receiver. He also could lead the league in receptions.
Friday's NFL preseason betting previews
By VICTOR RYAN
St. Louis Rams at New York Jets (+3.5, 33.5)
Who’s In, Who’s Out
Nothing beats a good quarterback competition when it comes to the preseason and the Jets are in the midst of a heated one between Kellen Clemens and first-round pick Mark Sanchez. Clemens entered camp as No. 1, but Sanchez appears to be closing the gap following a stellar performance in the team’s scrimmage last week.
Among the scratches for the Jets are center Nick Mangold, left guard Alan Faneca and right tackle Damien Woody. Stanley Daniels will get the start in Faneca’s place, with Robert Turner starting at center and Wayne Hunter in for Woody at right tackle.
As for the Rams, signal-caller Marc Bulger is expected to play a little longer than is the norm for returning quarterbacks in the preseason opener. First-year coach Steve Spagnulo has installed a new ‘West Coast’ offense this year and wants to get an early look at how Bulger is progressing.
Line Movement
The Jets opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line has moved to Jets -3 at some shops. The total opened at 34.5 and has moved to as low as 33.
Trends
There are no preseason coaching trends to report given both teams feature first-year head coaches.
Weather
The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and temperature in the mid-80’s.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (+3.5, 37)
Who’s in, Who’s Out
Quarterback Carson Palmer makes his long-awaited return for the Bengals after missing 12 of the team’s final 13 games last year. He is expected to start and play only briefly. He will be followed in the quarterback rotation by J.T. O’Sullivan and the starter’s brother, Jordan Palmer.
Among the notables that will not play because of injury are wide receiver Antonio Chatman and linebacker Brandon Johnson. Cincinnati will also be without its No. 1 draft pick as tackle Andre Smith remains unsigned.
As for the Saints, head coach Sean Payton said he expects the starters to go a full quarter with the exception being at quarterback. Starter Drew Brees will play briefly and backup Mark Brunell will get time with the first team before playing into the third quarter. Veteran Joey Harrington will finish the game.
The Saints enter this tilt with a depleted secondary. Cornerbacks Tracy Porter, Reggie Jones and first-round pick Malcolm Jenkins will all be out, as will safety Chip Vaughn, the Saints fourth-round pick in this year’s draft. Also out for the Saints is linebacker Mark Simoneau, who was scheduled to backup free-agent acquisition Jonathan Vilma at inside linebacker.
Line Changes
The line opened at New Orleans -3.5 and remains that way in Vegas, but several offshore shops have moved it to the Saints -3. The total opened at 37.5 and now sits at 37 at most shops.
Trends
The Saints are 6-7 SU and 6-7 ATS in three preseasons under coach Sean Payton. The over/under has gone 4-8. Bengals’ coach Marvin Lewis is entering his seventh season at the helm and in that span the Bengals in the preseason have gone 12-12 SU, 13-10-1 ATS and the over/under is 12-12.
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 35)
Who’s In, Who’s Out
Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels are in a battle to be the Vikings starting quarterback, but only one may see action Friday. Jackson has been limited this week because of a sprained knee and will be a game time decision. If he doesn’t play, third-stringer John David Booty will see extensive action.
The Colts will be breaking in a new head coach and two new coordinators. Quarterback Peyton Manning is expected to see limited duty and backup Jim Sorgi is out because of a hamstring injury. That means two rookies, sixth-round pick Curtis Painter out of Purdue and undrafted free agent Chris Crane (Boston College) , will get the bulk of the work behind center.
Line Movement
The line opened with the Colts -3, but heavy action on the Vikings has made Minnesota the 1-point favorite. The total has moved from 35 to 34.5.
Trends
Over the last three years with Tony Dungy as coach the Colts were 3-10 SU and 4-7-2 ATS in the preseason. The over/under was 6-5. The Vikings have gone 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS in three seasons under Brad Childress. The over/under is 6-6.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 34)
First-year Denver head coach Josh McDaniels has told his starters and draft picks to “be prepared to go a long time” in the preseason opener for both teams. In fact, McDaniels has gone as far as installing a full game plan and holding two walkthroughs at Invesco Field to better simulate gameday.
San Francisco Head Coach Mike Singletary has tabbed Shaun Hill to start at quarterback over Alex Smith. Hill will be without two of his major weapons as running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Isaac Bruce will both be held out in order to not risk injury. The 49ers will be without several other players, including starting left guard David Baas, running back Michael Robinson, cornerback Tarell Brown, linebacker Patrick Willis and tight end Delanie Walker.
Line Movement
The total has moved from 34.5 to 34 and the line has dropped at some wagering outlets from -3 to -2.5.
Trends
This will be the first preseason game for both head coaches. The Broncos are 7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS over the last three preseasons. The over/under is 6-6. The 49ers are 6-7 SU and 6-6 ATS over the last three seasons. The over/under is 7-5.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 77 degrees with sunny skies in San Francisco.
Yes, our long national nightmare is over. The NFL is back in session. Sure, it’s only the preseason, but the fact remains that we have games to watch and bet on. Friday is the second true full night of exhibition action with four matches on the board. Will be already padding out our bankroll or will we be rolling pennies for gas and coveting Top Ramen after Friday night? Let’s take a look at all the tilts for some good info.
Rams at Jets – 7:05 p.m. EDT, NFL Network
One of the things that bettors like to hang their hats on for the preseason for an angle is tendencies of the head coaches. So what do you do when both teams going at it are fronted by first year coaches? Try looking at their backgrounds.
St. Louis is coached by the Giants’ former defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. That means you’re going to see a spirited effort out of the gate on the stop unit, which is good since they gave up 29.1 points per game last season.
The Rams aren’t going to be changing on just defense. Gone are the days of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” replaced now with a run oriented attack. So the quarterback rotation of Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller and Keith Null won’t be nearly as important. Instead, focus is on making sure that Stephen Jackson doesn’t get overworked. We should expect to see Chris Ogbonnaya, Antonio Pittman and Samkon Gado auditioning on Friday night.
New York doesn’t have the same issues on offense under new head coach Rex Ryan. They decided to keep Brian Schottenheimer as Offensive Coordinator. What has been the burning question in the Jets’ training camp is who will be their starting quarterback: incumbent Kellen Clemmens or rookie Mark Sanchez?
Ryan has already made it known that Clemmens will get the starting nod, no doubt because of familiarity with the system. Sanchez will also get some field time as well. Fans and gambler might miss them under center if they blink as they are slated to play just one series apiece. So we’re going to get a chance to see Erik Ainge and Harvard rookie Chris Pizzotti.
Most betting shops have opened the line for this game with the Jets as 3 ½-point home favorites and a total of 33 ½. Both are pretty standard numbers for a preseason contest, to be honest.
At first blush, you’d have to expect a low scoring contest here with two defensive minded coaches that don’t want to lose anyone important to injury.
The edge would also go to the Rams for an outright win here. First year coaches in their first road preseason last season went 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. The ‘under’ went 3-1 as well.
Vikings at Colts – 7:30 p.m. EDT
Here’s a game between two teams that have already had plenty of drama during the summer before even getting into a game.
The Vikings were left in limbo as to whether Brett Favre would play for them in 2009. Now that Favre has decided to keep making Wrangler ads, Minnesota is left with a QB battle between Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Odds are pretty good we’re going to see more of John David Booty and Sean Glennon than the other two gun slingers.
Jackson has recently been quoted that he doesn’t know who will start or how long he’ll play. What is known is that Brad Childress is planning on running a very vanilla game plan on the attack. Probably has something to do with the fact that recent practices have been very sloppy, with no flow to them.
Indianapolis is coming into this season with a brand new head coach in Jim Caldwell, a new OC in Clyde Christensen (Tom Moore is in limbo) and Larry Coyer is running the defense. This influx of new blood on the coaching side has worried some people. This is a team that has been the absolute model of consistency for the last seven seasons under Tony Dungy.
The Colts are stable where it counts, on the field. Peyton Manning has started his life without Marvin Harrison quite well with Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez setting up as the top two receivers. Gonzalez won’t be in the lineup, opting to sit out with a slightly pulled hamstring.
Manning will most likely be out for two or three series to start the game. Jim Sorgi will not be filling in for the future Hall of Famer as he’ll be “out” with a hamstring injury. Purdue’s Curtis Painter will get the majority of play, followed up by Chris Crane.
The majority of sportsbooks have listed Minnesota as a one-point road “chalk” with the total home steady at 35.
Nobody should be surprised by the Vikes being favored in this spot. Indy does not care about exhibition football. Look no further than a 3-15 SU record over the last four years as proof. The Colts are just 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS at home in that stretch.
We should note that Childress doesn’t really give a damn about preseason games either; he is 3-3 SU in six road games as Minnesota’s head coach. The Vikings have been profitable in that stretch though for bettors by going 4-2 ATS.
Bengals at Saints – 8:00 p.m. EDT
We’ve heard a load of hype about how the Bengals are going to be in the running for the playoffs. Now everyone will get to see how this team performs with some expectations on their shoulders.
It all starts under center for Cincinnati with Carson Palmer, who is finally at full strength after suffering with a bad elbow for much of 2008. It’s also going to help Palmer to have Chad Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles as his prime targets. At the tight end position, it’s not going too well for the Bengals. Reggie Kelly is on the Injured Reserve List with a ruptured left Achilles tendon. Ben Utecht (neck) is “out” with a concussion, which leaves Chase Coffman and Darius Hill handling the snaps.
After Palmer, the Bengals will be sending out J.T. O’Sullivan and Jordan Palmer (Carson’s little brother) to run the offense the rest of the way. However, we might see Billy Farris coming in for a series or two in the fourth quarter.
New Orleans has practically set its QB rotation in stone with Drew Brees and the rest of the starting offense playing the first quarter. Mark Brunell will take the second and part of the third, Joey Harrington will take control thereafter.
It sounds like the Saints’ defense is going to be the thing to watch at the Superdome. Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams is setting up defensive tackle Rod Coleman to anchor the d-line. Williams has also noted that we might see a lot of edge rushes with defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant against Cincy.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has listed New Orleans as a 3 ½-point home favorite with a total of 37.
Sean Payton hasn’t given too much care to winning the preseason at home in his three years with the Saints. They have gone 1-5 SU and ATS at the Superdome since 2006.
Marvin Lewis’s Bengals have been golden for gamblers recently in preseason openers. Cincy has covered the spread in its opening exhibitions.
Broncos at 49ers – 10:00 p.m. EDT, NFL Network
Denver was another club that had its fair share of drama with the Jay Cutler Saga. Now the Broncos are Kyle Orton’s club. While attention is going to get paid to how Orton plays this preseason, it’s the other guys in the backfield where the action is for this Friday.
Knowshon Moreno has looked good in practice, but is still listed as the No. 4 option on the depth chart right now. The honor of being No. 1 goes to free agent signee Correll Buckhalter, with LaMont Jordan as the backup.
There hasn’t been any indication of how long Orton will start, but you can expect him to stay in no later than early in the second quarter. Former Buccaneer Chris Simms and Fresno State product Tom Brandstater will split up the remainder of the signal calling.
Things are a bit murky on how the 49ers will be rolling on offense in their preseason opener. Head coach Mike Singletary has said that the timetable for Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard and Nate Davis will be made solely on “the flow of the game.”
What we do know about the QB battle is that Hill will start the game, followed up by Smith. It appears that the former No. 1 pick will get more playing time with first team on Friday.
San Francisco will also be sitting both running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Isaac Bruce. Glen Coffee appears to be set to start in the backfield, while Jason Hill moves up to start in place of Bruce. Michael Crabtree will be busy playing as himself in Madden NFL ’10.
Most sportsbooks have made the Niners three-point home favorites with a total of 34.
This is a hard game to gauge because both sides have a new head coach (this is Singletary’s first preseason at the helm). We know the recent trend about first year coaches in their first road game already. What about their debut at home?
It doesn’t look good for backers of San Fran as rookie coaches in home debuts last season went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. The ‘under’ went 3-1 in that timeframe.
St. Louis 1-5 as dog… 3-12 Away One… 3-7 SUATS vs AFC… 0-5 UNDER > 37… 1-5 UNDER Game One
NY JETS 4-1 SUATS Game One… 5-2 SUATS Home One… 2-4-1 as fav
Minnesota SERIES: 4-0… 5-0 vs AFC… 8-3 SUATS as dog Game One… 2-4 UNDER Game One
INDIANAPOLIS 0-5 SUATS Home One..1-7 L8 home games..3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS L4Y..0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS Game One… 10-4 OVER vs NFC
Cincinnati SERIES: 0-5 SUATS… 3-9 SU Game One… LEWIS: 0-9 w/pre season revenge
N ORLEANS 0-11 (1-10 SU) Home One… 2-13 (3-12 SU) fav… 2-6 SUATS Game One… 3-9-1 UNDER vs AFC 1-5… UNDER Game One… PAYTON: 1-3 SUATS fav
Denver 9-3-1 Game One… 19-9 vs NFC (11-3-1 away)… 1-7 UNDER Away One
S FRANCISCO SERIES: 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS… 4-1-1 Home One.. 6-2 SUATS L8 home..8-3-1 last 12 games
CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in August games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home lined games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in dome games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
DENVER is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS at NY JETS
ST LOUIS: 7-14 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less
NY JETS: 5-1 Over if the total is between 32.5 and 35
MINNESOTA at INDIANAPOLIS
MINNESOTA: 3-0 ATS vs. AFC
INDIANAPOLIS: 4-8 ATS on Fridays
CINCINNATI at NEW ORLEANS
CINCINNATI: 0-7 ATS vs. NFC South
NEW ORLEANS: 8-21 ATS in home games
DENVER at SAN FRANCISCO
DENVER: 20-8 ATS vs. NFC West
SAN FRANCISCO: 10-2 Over as a home favorite of 3pts or less
Game 259-260: St. Louis at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 118.247; NY Jets 125.099
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 7; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3 1/2; 34
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3 1/2); Over
Game 261-262: Minnesota at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.160; Indianapolis 114.979
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6; 36
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2); Over
Game 263-264: Cincinnati at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 117.652; New Orleans 124.844
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7; 40
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over
Game 265-266: Denver at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.740; San Francisco 124.395
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 31
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 34
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Under
Nfl 8/14
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