Freddy Wills 8/13
Freddy Wills
The Bottom Line:
Take Rockies -1.5 @ -110 4-DIME POD
Well we are going to rebound here today with the Rockies run line. This is a complete mismatch in my opinion as Maholm goes up against Marquis. I'm not just talking about the obvious pitching mismatch of ERA etc.
Rockies are more than a run better during the day than the Pirates are as the Pirates are hitting .13 lower than they are at night and creating just 4.07 runs per 9 innings. They won't get much help as they go up against Jason Marquis who is 6-1 in 8 starts this season with a 2.79 ERA. Seems as though his sinker ball is really working during the day so we should see a dominant start from him. I also like the fact that he gave up 5 ER in his last start and in poor starts this year he usually bounces back big. 7 ER followed by 0 ER, 9 ER followed by 1 ER and 6 ER followed by 3 ER. I look for him to do the same against a Pirates lineup that has an average of .233 and are scoring just 3.97 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP on the road. In fact they are just 8-20 vs. RH starters in their last 28 and they are 1-8 in their last 9 visits to Coors Field. The Rockies will face a LHP which is good news for them particularly at home.
Maholm will make the start vs. the Rockies and I don't think he is looking forward to facing them as they have a collective .366 average in 93 AB. Maholm won't go long in this game and it's not good for a bullpen that has a 8.78 ERA last 5 and a 7.31 ERA last 10. They haven't had a starter go more than 5 innings so they may have to leave Maholm out their to take a beating because I can't see him having a quality start when the Rockies have success in the past and a .321 average scoring 8.32 runs at home vs. LHP. If you need more convincing Pirates are just 8-43 in their last 51 as a dog of +201 or more
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