Freddy Wills POD

The Bottom Line
Take Marlins -1.5 @ +115 3-Dime Play
Let's get back on track here on Wednesday as we go with the Marlins run line. I suppose you can go with the money line but at -183 you'd have to win at a 67% clip just to make money. I'll pass on that and go with the run line here as the visiting Astros have lost 76.6% of their road losses (31) by more than 1 run. So if you believe they will lose which I absolutely do! Take the Marlins run line in this situation.

Don't get me wrong Bud Norris has looked sharp in two starts so far this year, but I really see this guy as more of a relief pitcher. He not only struggles with control, but lacks the necessary stamina to go long into games. With a low 90mph fast ball and a nice curve to go along don't be surprised if he pitches effectively early, but it's just a matter of time before the Marlins take pitches which will get them into the Astros bullpen. Florida ranked 16th in the league in taking walks should be patient with a pitcher they do not know in Norris, but has 9BB in 13IP as a starter. When the Marlins do get to the bullpen it should be smooth sailing from there as the relievers available have a 6.75 ERA in their last 3. Collectively they have struggled in their last 5 (6.10 ERA) last 10 (5.30 ERA) and on the road (4.92 ERA). Again the key will be the Marlins ability to get into this bullpen and I don't think it will be a problem especially with their acquisition of Nick Johnson that has sparked this lineup mainly because his patience and ability to get on base. Marlins can take notes from Johnson here tonight. They have had no trouble scoring runs scoring a whopping 46 in their last 6 games and are 12-3 at home vs. RH starters. They will throw one of their best in Rickie Nolasco up there tonight.

Nolasco who has a .90 Whip and a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts is primed for a great performance. In the past (2008) he has struggled against the Astros with 12IP 7 ER giving up 4HR. It has been his weakness to give up HR's and that was the cause of his poor pitching against Houston last year. Keep in mind Houston is without Berkman again (2-6 1HR vs. Nolasco) and are 24th in the league in HRs. Nolasco has very good control and has yet to give up more than 3 BB in a game this year. Much should hold true as he faces the Astros who are 25th in the league in walks. So how are the Astros able to score runs against Nolasco? who has 125 strikeouts in 124 innings and is coming off a 5-1 run for team wins in his last 6 home starts? They will have to play small ball and steal bases, and they are ranked 11th in stealing, but I think the Marlins can keep that in control tonight and I feel comfortable backing a hot offense over a team that can only win if they play small ball.