Odds and ends: College football's most underappreciated
There it was, buried in the corner of my garage, wedged between boxes of old magazines and clothes that should have been dropped at the Salvation Army months ago.
Carefully I reached down, picked up the crystal ball, blew off the dust and held it in my hands. There was a rush of anticipation as I lifted it toward the light. Gazing into the magical orb, I held its power in my hands.
Weeks before the start of the 2009 college football season, I can see it all — the first kickoff, the first pass, the first penalty.
Bettors, as a whole, are a superstitious bunch. We seek clairvoyance amid a world of information overload. Sometimes it's easier to let a higher power take over. So maybe that thing buried in my garage was actually a dusty, neglected bowling ball. But I can still predict the six most undervalued and underappreciated teams entering the 2009 season. And this is what I see:
Northwestern Wildcats - Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats start the season 6-0. There's no Ohio State on the schedule and this was a team that won nine games in 2008. Pat Fitzgerald has to find playmakers on offense, but the cushy early schedule will allow Northwestern to work out the kinks before it gets to the meat of the schedule. Seven starters return on defense, including all four members of the secondary, giving Northwestern arguably the best defensive backfield in the Big Ten. Fun fact: Since 1999, the Wildcats are 43-16 when rushing for more yards than the opposition.
North Carolina State Wolfpack - There were doubts about Tom O'Brien's rebuilding project when the Wolfpack started 2-6 last season. November came and North Carolina State went 4-0, including victories over then-No. 24 Wake Forest, then-No. 22 North Carolina and Miami. The turnaround was fueled by the spectacular play of freshman quarterback Russell Wilson. Fourteen starters return this year and it's easy to get excited about O'Brien's team rising up in the balanced Atlantic Coast Conference. Having eight home games will certainly help.
Nevada Wolf Pack - Tim Tebow aside, there is no better running quarterback in the country than Colin Kaepernick. He’s sneaky fast with his 6-foot-6 frame and long strides. The Wolf Pack, operating out of the Pistol offense, scored 489 points last season and should surpass that total in 2009. The success of Nevada will rest with the defense. The stop unit returns seven starters including safety Jonathon Amaya, who led the team in tackles (68) last season. However, it’s never a good thing when your leading tackler is a safety. The opener at Notre Dame should be a shootout and if things break right for the Wolf Pack, the Western Athletic Conference title will be on the line in the season finale at Boise State November 27.
Missouri Tigers - All indications point toward a rebuilding season for the Tigers, given that Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman are gone and only nine starters return. But with expectations dialed back, the Tigers could have opponents right where they want them. Linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who had 155 tackles last season, returns and the secondary can’t be any worse than it was in 2008 when it gave up nearly 290 passing yards per game. The Big 12 North isn’t exactly murderers’ row and there is no Oklahoma on the regular season schedule. The biggest games — Nebraska on Oct. 8 and Texas on Oct. 24 — are in Columbia.
Stanford Cardinal - Jim Harbaugh inherited a mess when he took over a Cardinal team that finished 1-11 under Walt Harris in 2006. His first squad went 4-8 but stunned USC, 24-23, at the Los Angeles Coliseum as a 41-point underdog. Last season, Stanford was 5-4 and on the cusp of its first bowl berth since 2001 only to lose its last three games. Nonetheless, progress has been made and this would appear to be the breakthrough season Harbaugh is looking for, with 15 starters and 50 of 60 lettermen returning. The Cardinal have a punishing running game behind Toby Gerhart and that should take considerable pressure off new starting quarterback Andrew Luck. Stanford plays its first two games on the road but finishes with seven of 10 at home.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Granted, expectations are always high at Notre Dame. But the Fighting Irish finally appear to be set for a return to the national spotlight — if not this season, then certainly next. The offense has 10 returning starters and priority has been put on developing a running game to compliment quarterback Jimmy Clausen. That should not be a Herculean task because Notre Dame returns 100 combined starts on its offensive line, tied with Virginia Tech for most in big-time college football.
Smith's injury could prepare Panthers' other receivers
For now, Steve Smith's injured right shoulder may be just what the Carolina Panthers need.
The Panthers star wide receiver is expected to be sidelined several weeks with the injury suffered in a collision with cornerback Chris Gamble during Monday's practice. Smith is targeting a return for the September 13 season opener, where Carolina is a 1-point favorite versus Philadelphia.
The smallish Smith wasn't going to play more than a possession or two in Monday's preseason opener on the road vs. the New York Giants, where the Panthers are 3-point underdogs.
Last year, Smith was a huge part of the offense with 78 catches for 1,421 yards and six touchdowns. Behind him is aging Muhsin Muhammad and Dwyane Jarrett, who has just 16 catches in his first two seasons.
With Smith on the sidelines, that could mean more reps for Jarrett, which could provide quarterback Jake Delhomme more options during the season.
Behind Jarrett, the rest of Carolina's receivers have a total of four NFL catches.
The Panthers already have lost starting defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. They are the top choice to win the NFC South at +180, barely ahead of Atlanta at +200.
NFL preseason betting tips
By TED SEVRANSKY - Direct From Vegas: Sports Investing for long term profits
Betting preseason NFL games is an entirely different animal compared to betting regular season games.
When beginning to wager on these contests, it is very important to recognize the difference. By following these simple guidelines, bettors can make betting preseason NFL a profitable part of their wagering portfolio, year after year.
Don’t confuse teams’ regular season capabilities with their preseason goals
Indianapolis has won at least 12 games in each of the last six regular seasons, the single most consistent winning team in the NFL during that span. But the Colts are in the midst of a 3-15 SU, 5-10-1 ATS run in August. Indy uses the preseason to develop depth, not to improve their confidence level.
The Eagles have also been one of the NFL’s most successful regular season team to bet on over the last nine years, winning five division titles and going to the NFC Championship Game four times. Head coach Andy Reid hasn’t had a single winning preseason ATS during that span.
The Detroit Lions won all four of their preseason games last year, going 3-0-1 ATS in the process. The Lions then proceeded to lose all 16 regular season games - the worst team in modern NFL history.
Do your homework
You must find accurate local news sources. Find out what the player rotations are going to be – not just the starters.
Oftentimes, in the first few games, the starters will not play after the first quarter. But will the second stringers get the majority of the remaining of playing time, or will it be the scrubs fighting for the last few roster spots playing the whole second half?
Pointspread outcomes are often decided in the fourth quarter. You must find out who will be in the game during this crucial time. Undrafted rookie free agents are at the bottom of the totem pole. These guys will often cost you the cover when they are getting significant playing time.
Know the quarterback rotations
A team that I am betting on needs experience at the second and third string quarterback positions. I also like to bet against rookie QB’s who will be seeing substantial second-half action playing against NFL level talent for the first time.
Quality third stringers with NFL starting experience are plentiful around the league. Look for guys like Patrick Ramsey (Tennessee), Joey Harrington (New Orleans) and Rex Grossman (Houston) as “bet-on” quarterbacks. The guys are capable of picking apart third string defenders.
On the other end of the spectrum, third stringers like Jeff Rowe (Seattle), Jordan Palmer (Cincinnati) and the Caleb Hanie/Brett Basenez backup duo in Chicago are unlikely to generate much offense through the passing game.
Weaker quarterbacks just won’t put up the points you need with the game on the line in the fourth quarter and they might cost you a touchdown with their bad reads leading to costly interceptions, just like Tennessee’s Alex Mortenson did in the Hall of Fame Game last Sunday Night.
Know your coaches
Some coaches really emphasize winning in the preseason, setting the tone for victories once the regular season begins. Tony Sparano of the Dolphins fit into this category last year, much like his boss, Bill Parcells used to do.
Sparano’s Dolphins won three out of four SU and ATS last August, including a pair of straight-up wins as road underdogs. Tennessee’s Jeff Fisher is another coach with a proven track record of competitiveness in August. Fisher’s Titans went 3-1 SU in both 2007 and 2008 and started out the 2009 preseason with a win over Buffalo.
Chicago coach Lovie Smith isn’t too concerned with preseason wins. He has only one pointspread cover in eight tries over the last two preseasons. As mentioned above, Philadelphia’s Andy Reid doesn’t have a single winning ATS mark in the preseason in the last nine years.
Look for coaches who desperately want a win in this game
Coaches coming off a bad season often want to set a tone of winning right from the start of August. New coaches also want to set a winning tone right from the get-go. Look no further than the Redskins domination of the Colts in the preseason opening Hall of Fame game last August.
Tony Dungy of the Colts had no inclination to push his team hard in their preseason opener, while Jim Zorn of the Redskins wanted to set a tone for winning right from Game 1 of the preseason after Washington’s disappointing close to the 2007 campaign.
New head coaches like Zorn generally pay much more attention to winning and losing than veteran coaches do. Later in the preseason, coaches that are on the hot seat after losing a preseason game or two on the road have a strong tendency to pull out all the stops for a victory in front of the home crowd.
Bet facts, not opinions
In the regular season, we bet on games where we feel the linesmakers are giving one team too much credit or another team not enough credit.
These are our opinions, which are strong enough to risk our hard-earned dollars on. In the preseason, gamblers are betting on information and information only.
In most cases, the coaches themselves are nice enough to tell bettors exactly what they intend to do. A coach who wants to “evaluate his depth” in any particular ballgame is generally not a coach that you want to wager on.
Football 8/12
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