The Dodgers hand the ball to southpaw Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.61 ERA) as they continue their three-game series at AT&T Park against the Giants, who will counter with rookie Joe Martinez (2-0, 5.87).
Los Angeles put the brakes on just its second three-game losing skid of the season with Monday’s 4-2 victory. Still, the Dodgers are just 6-11 in their last 17 games (4-4 on the road) and they’re on additional plunges of 1-4 against right-handed starters and 3-10 in the second game of a series. On the positive end, Joe Torre’s club is on runs of 47-19 in N.L. West action and 9-2 on Tuesday.
San Francisco has dropped two in a row and three of its last four, all at home. Still, the Giants are on surges of 37-18 at home, 10-4 versus left-handed starters, 7-1 at home against lefties, 4-2 as an underdog and 5-1 on Tuesday.
The Dodgers are 6-4 against the Giants this season, but they’re only 3-6 in their last nine in San Francisco since 2008.
Wolf has made 24 starts this year, yet has just 11 decisions, the latest no-decision coming Thursday at home against Atlanta. In that contest, Wolf was in line for a loss after surrendering four runs on nine hits in seven innings, but the Dodgers turned a 4-2 defeat into a 5-4 win courtesy of Andre Ethier’s walk-off three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth. It was the second straight time that Wolf gave up four runs and nine hits, a mini slump that follows a stretch of six consecutive quality starts.
L.A. is 4-1 in Wolf’s last five Tuesday outings, 9-3 in his last 12 as a favorite and 5-2 in his last seven against N.L. West rivals, but it has dropped four of his last five starts on the road. In fact,
Wolf is only 4-4 despite a stellar 3.04 ERA in 12 road contests, with the Dodgers going 5-7. Wolf faced the Giants in San Francisco on April 27 and gave up three unearned runs in six innings, with the Dodgers falling 5-4. He’s 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 14 career starts against the Giants.
Martinez earned a 10-6 victory in his first career start on Wednesday at Houston, giving up three runs in five innings. It was his first appearance since April 9 when the right-hander suffered multiple skull fractures after being struck in the head by a line drive in a home game against Milwaukee. In two relief appearances at home (both versus the Brewers), Martinez gave up two runs on four hits in 2 2/3 innings (6.75 ERA), but he did earn a victory on April 7.
The Dodgers have stayed under the total in five of their last six on the road, but the over is 6-3 in their last nine overall and 5-2 in their last seven against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 20-9-3 in the Giants’ last 32 N.L. West contests, 8-3 in their last 10 at home and 4-1 in their last five versus southpaw starters. However, the over is 11-4-1 in San Francisco’s last 16 games as a home underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (61-51) at L.A. Angels (66-44)
Rookie David Price (5-4, 4.91 ERA) goes after his third straight win when he leads the Rays against Ervin Santana (4-6, 7.20) and the Angels in the middle game of a three-game set at Angel Stadium.
Los Angeles got two home runs from Vladimir Guerrero – his 399th and 400th of his career – and held off Tampa Bay in an 8-7 slugfest on Monday. The Angels are on sizzling runs of 37-15 overall, 10-4 at home, 6-0 against A.L. East squads, 13-3 as an underdog, 23-7 as a home pup and 57-28 against southpaw starters. Additionally, Mike Scioscia’s club has dominated Tampa over the years, winning 51 of the last 75 meetings overall while going 27-5 in the last 32 matchups in California.
Tampa Bay is now 1-3 on its current road trip, a funk that follows a 6-2 run (all at home). The Rays continue to play sub-.500 ball on the road (25-33), and they’re 12-28 in their last 40 as a road chalk, but on the bright side, they’ve won five straight games on Tuesday.
Price led Tampa Bay to Wednesday’s 6-4 home win over Boston, giving up two runs on six hits with five strikeouts and no walks in six innings. Tampa has won four of Price’s last five starts, including the last three in a row, with the lefty allowing just three runs on 11 hits and two walks in his last two outings covering 13 innings. However, Price has been a disaster on the road this year, going 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA in six starts.
The Rays are just 1-4 when Price faces A.L. West opponents, but the victory came on June 11 over the Angels in Tampa Bay. Price lasted just 4 1/3 innings, yielding a run on two hits and a whopping six walks, but the Rays rolled to an 11-1 win.
Santana had one of his better outings of the season on Thursday at the White Sox. Despite allowing four runs on five hits and five walks, he struck out seven and earned a 9-5 road win. The Angels are 4-1 in Santana’s last five trips to the mound, even though in the last four, the right-hander has given up 20 runs (all earned) in 21 2/3 innings. On top of that, he’s 0-4 with a 12.38 ERA in six home starts in 2009.
With Santana pitching, the Angels are on runs of 6-1 as an underdog and 5-1 as a home pup, but they’re 1-4 in his last five at Angel Stadium and 1-5 in his last six against the A.L. East. Additionally, the Halos are 1-5 in Santana’s last six starts versus the Rays, including that 11-1 defeat on June 11 when Santana yielded six runs in 4 2/3 innings. For his career, he’s 3-4 with a 6.04 ERA in nine starts against Tampa Bay, but 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in two home games.
L.A. is on a slew of “over” runs, including 39-14-3 overall, 23-7-1 at home, 8-2 as an underdog, 5-0-1 on Tuesday, 6-0 against the A.L. East and 13-4-1 versus winning teams. Also, with Santana pitching, the “over” is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-2-1 at home and 16-7-2 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Rays carry “over” trends of 5-0 overall, 5-1 on the highway, 6-0 versus the A.L. West and 5-2-1 when Price goes off as a favorite. Finally, the last three meetings between these clubs this season have topped the total.
The Angels’ bats finally cooled off a bit. Los Angeles played over the total in 13 straight games from July 21 to Aug. 2, but the club struggled to touch home in its series against the White Sox and Rangers.
Mike Sciosica’s squad registered just three hits during Sunday’s 7-0 shutout loss to Texas.
Over bettors should expect another pay out on Tuesday, though. Vladimir Guerrero is starting to find his home run swing and shortstop Erik Aybar has been a revelation at the top of the batting order.
Expect the Angels to get to Tampa Bay starter David Price early and continue to hit the Rays bullpen hard.
Pick: Over
Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians (-116, 9.5)
The Rangers continue to surprise in the AL West. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that the Rangers would be 14.5 games above .500 and 3.5 games back of the division-leading Angels.
Texas has been baseball’s best bet this season and it’s crystal clear that pitching has been the difference. The Rangers owned the worst team ERA (5.36) in 2008. But in 2009 the club owns a respectable 4.18 ERA, good for ninth best in the majors.
As a result, no team in baseball cashes the under as often as Texas.
Look for the Rangers to limit the light-hitting Indians on Tuesday.
Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
There aren’t really any pitchers scheduled to start on Tuesday that are setting the world on fire. Because of that, we’re going to focus on hurlers making their big league debut or returning from injury.
Returning
Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.61 ERA), Houston Astros
The veteran righty makes his first start since leaving a game earlier on July 28 because of a strain in his lower back. Oswalt said he had no pain in his back after throwing a 40-pitch session on Sunday.
“The biggest thing is just command right now,” he told the Houston Chronicle. “In the bullpen, it’s OK, but you can tell when you get in the game if your command is going to be there.”
After a rough start to the campaign, Oswalt has lowered his ERA to a nifty 3.61. The Astros have won in each of the Mississippi native’s last six appearances.
Debuting
Junichi Tazawa (0-1, 10.80), Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox rookie actually made his big league debut in relief during Friday’s loss to the Yankees. He gave up four hits (including a walk-off home run to Alex Rodriguez) and two earned runs over 1 1-2 innings.
Since Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka are both still on the disabled list, manager Terry Francona was left with few options to fill John Smoltz’s spot in the rotation.
Tazawa will be pitching on three days’ rest, but he only threw 35 pitches in Friday’s outing.
“If he’d have thrown more [pitches], we wouldn’t have done this,” Francona told the Boston Globe about Tazawa’s Friday appearance.
Slumping
Ervin Santana (4-6, 7.20), Los Angeles Angels
At least you know what you’re getting with this flame-throwing righty. It’s almost a given that he’s going to pitch six innings and surrender five to six runs in the process.
Santana strikes out a good number of batters (58 in 70 innings pitched) but he struggles with his location. He walked five in his last start and has been taken out of the park eight times in his last six starts.
The Halo offense has been good enough to cover for Santana’s shortcomings. Los Angeles has won in four of his last five starts with the total cashing in five straight as well.
Taking the run-line in baseball may seem like an easy proposition. Lay the 1 ½ and hope your team wins by at least two runs. The payout is usually nice, unless the favorite is listed at $2.00 or more, in which case you could win back close to even money. Regardless, with less than two months left in the season, there are plenty of teams that have routinely covered the run-line, while other teams merely have the odds higher than a coin flip to win by at least two.
Is there a correlation with teams in playoff contention to cover run-lines as oppose to teams playing for nothing winning close games? Not exactly. Out of the top ten run-line teams in baseball, six are in the midst of the playoff race. On the flip side, six contending clubs are in the bottom of the league in run-line victories.
Let's take a look at who is worth taking a shot at on the run-line the final seven weeks of the season, and the teams to stay away from in this spot.
Good
Pirates
The Pirates have completely packed it in, trading away multiple pieces of their offense for younger talent. While Pittsburgh sits in last place in the NL Central, the Bucs have been the best run-line play of any team in baseball this season, winning 82.2% of their games by at least two runs. The Pirates will unlikely be listed as a favorite of $1.40 the rest of the season, unless Zach Duke pitches against a sub-.500 team. That means if Pittsburgh is a short favorite and you feel good about backing the Bucs, there will be a nice payout on the run-line.
Rockies
The Rockies have been playing some of the best baseball in the game since June, getting themselves right at the top of the NL Wild Card race. Since June 1, Colorado has won 41 games, 20 at home and 21 on the road. The run-line numbers are staggering, as the Rockies have won 65% (13/20) of their home games by at least two runs. Meanwhile, Colorado has claimed a whooping 90% (19/21) of its road games by more than two runs. The benefit of backing the Rockies on the road in the run-line spot is getting the guaranteed ninth at-bat, as opposed to playing at home. Colorado plays only seven road series the rest of the season, but heads to Florida and Washington starting August 14, giving bettors several opportunities to back the Rockies on the run-line.
Royals
The worst team in the American League is the best team in the Junior Circuit on the run-line, winning just nine games by one run this season. Since May 24, the Royals have won 11 home games, with each of those victories coming by at least two runs. It's a tough proposition to back the Royals with a lot of confidence the rest of the way, especially with Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke was great the first two months of the season, but if you took +1 ½ with Kansas City's opponents when Greinke is favored, you would be 11-1 the last 12 games in this spot.
What bettors need to know: Dodgers at Giants
By THE PREZ - I am your Financial Advisor - I take this very seriously
L.A. leads 5-4 but is 1-2 at AT&T Park this season and has lost six of its past eight there. The teams last played way back on May 8 in Los Angeles, which was just a day after Manny Ramirez began his 50-game suspension. The Giants took two of three even though Los Angeles entered off to its best start in 26 years.
How they enter
Is it time to panic in La-la land? The Dodgers had a nine-game lead over San Francisco a little more than two weeks ago. But Los Angeles was swept at home by Atlanta and has lost 10 of 15 to see its NL West lead drop to 5.5 games over San Francisco and Colorado.
Manager Joe Torre called a team meeting after Sunday’s 8-2 loss to the Braves.
“Every team every year goes through bad times, and right now we're not playing well. There's no question about it," Torre said to reporters.
The bullpen was terrible against Atlanta, allowing 14 runs in the three games. Guillermo Mota, who was unhittable for a long stretch, was torched in the final two games and Ramon Troncoso gave up four runs Sunday.
The Giants blew a chance to get even closer over the weekend, losing two of three at home to the sinking Reds. San Francisco had won six series in a row at home and nine of the past 10. The Giants’ 38-18 home record remains the National League's best.
Probable pitchers
Tuesday
Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.55) at Joe Martinez (2-0, 5.87)
Wolf got another no-decision last time out, allowing four runs in seven innings to Atlanta. It was his worst start since late June. Wolf had six quality starts and a 2.84 ERA in July. He is 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in his career against the Giants.
Martinez was the guy who was gruesomely hit in the forehead in the season’s first week by a Mike Cameron line drive. This will be Martinez's first AT&T Park appearance then; Martinez won at Houston last week in his first big-league start.
Wednesday afternoon
TBD at Tim Lincecum (12-3, 2.20)
It’s TBD for the Dodgers because the status of Chad Billingsley is unclear. He strained a left hamstring Friday night against the Braves will be re-evaluated by the team's medical staff on Monday.
Lincecum is 3-0 in four career starts against the Dodgers. He has allowed six earned runs in 13 innings with 16 strikeouts this season against L.A., but that was back before Lincecum got rolling. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has allowed more than two earned runs in just three of his past 15 starts.
This and that
The Dodgers have the best in-division record in baseball this season and have won 46 of their past 65 overall against the NL West.
Giants outfielder Aaron Rowand left Sunday’s game after six innings with a tight left hamstring. Rowand wants to play all three games of this series, but look for him to possibly sit out the day game on Wednesday.
The Giants are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against. a team with a winning road record.
Towering right-hander Doug Fister will make his first major league start Tuesday when the Seattle Mariners host the Chicago White Sox.
Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu told the team's web site that the 6-foot-8 rookie likely will start Tuesday. Fister is also listed on the web site as the team's probable pitcher Tuesday.
He was recalled from Triple-A Tacoma on Friday and pitched one scoreless inning of relief Saturday. He is taking the rotation spot of Jason Vargas, who was sent to the minor leagues after giving up five runs in one innings vs. Kansas City on Thursday.
Fister began the season at Double-A and made two starts without allowing a run before jumping to Tacoma, where he was 6-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 22 games, including 17 starts. He walked just 11 in 106 1-3 innings.
Inside the lines 8/11
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