Can't hardly wait: NCF Week 1 opening line report
By ASHTON GREWAL
They say all good things are worth waiting for. Thankfully, oddsmakers gave us the shortest wait ever for college football’s Week 1 lines. Unlike its NFL cousin, the first week lines for college don’t usually come out until the mid or late August.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a company that helps set lines for many big name sportsbooks in Nevada, upped the ante this season by releasing its Week 1 pointspreads just under a month before the season’s opening kickoff.
The first games of the season air on Thursday night with non-conference games like South Carolina at North Carolina State and Oregon at Boise State.
The Broncos are laying 4.5 points against last year’s Pac-10 runner up Oregon.
“Hawaii is probably the only school with a bigger home-field advantage than Boise State,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker with LVSC. “Boise gets about 5 or 5.5 points for its home games. You’ve got to be cautious about the revenge factor in this game, though.”
The Ducks fell 37-32 at home to the Broncos last season, despite entering the game as 10-point favorites.
Texas, No. 2 in the USA Today preseason poll, gives the most points (38) on Saturday, but Seba says Southern Cal’s line was the more difficult one to set.
“We varied a bit on USC. We had some guys as high as 36 and some as low as 30. We decided to go with 32.”
Seba says he doesn’t think the Trojans, who host San Jose State on Sept. 5, will blow as many opponents away this season compared to years past. The inexperience at the quarterback position could impair Pete Carroll’s offense.
One of the more anticipated games on the Week 1 board has Georgia visiting Oklahoma State. LVSC made the Cowboys 4.5-point faves against last year’s preseason No. 1.
“A lot of people are talking about Oklahoma State and pegging them as a surprise team. I don’t see them as a surprise team because of the hype.”
Still, Seba likes the number at 4.5. He says the public’s positive perception of the Cowboys, along with Georgia’s well known losses to the NFL Draft (QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno) make Okie State an easy favorite.
Big 12 bettors should get a good grasp on what life will be like for Mizzou without Chase Daniel under center. The Tigers play an experienced Illinois squad at a neutral site. While Mizzou no longer has its offensive leader, the Fighting Illini return QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn.
LSVC has Illinois giving 5 points to the Big 12 club.
One of the more interesting Week 1 lines sees potential BCS buster BYU getting 21 points against defending Heisman winner Sam Bradford and Oklahoma.
“The game is taking place on a neutral field (the new Cowboys Stadium), but 90 percent of the fans will be backing the Sooners,” Seba says.
BYU does have a competitive team with starting QB Max Hall back in the fold, but Seba predicts the lack of depth will be the Cougars’ downfall.
“It could very likely be a seven or 10-point game going into the fourth quarter. But with that Oklahoma offense, things can get out of hand in a hurry. BYU will have to throw the ball to keep pace with the Sooners and that could lead to some costly turnovers.”
The public bettors and college football fans are geared for the big games in Week 1, but the contests Seba and his coworkers stay up late worrying about are the lesser known matchups.
“Take North Texas and Ball State,” he says. “North Texas is supposed to have its best team in a decade, but what does that mean? Ball State was a big player in the MAC last year, but what are they going to be like without Nate Davis?”
LVSC sent out Ball State -16 but Seba says it would have been closer to -28 last season.
Over/under lines are still unavailable. Most offshore books are expected to release their lines later this week.
Make sure to follow our scores and matchups page to see all the odds along with the consensus picks formed by Covers.com users.
2008 marked the first time in the last six years that a team from the NFC SOUTH DIVISION failed to move from the outhouse to the penthouse, or last place to first place.
That’s not to say that Atlanta, the NFC SOUTH DIVISION cellar dweller in 2007, didn’t deliver last season. They did. It’s just that Carolina won one extra game and edged out the Falcons for division honors.
Yes, the times are changing in this division and the changes appear to be for the good. That being the case, we’ll keep a close eye on New Orleans and see if they can’t complete the ‘worst-to-first’ run in 2009.
Here is my take of teams in the NFC SOUTH DIVISION for 2009.
ATLANTA
Team Theme – ONE AND DONE
Following a tumultuous 2007 season, team owner Arthur Blank confided his trust and faith in new head coach Mike Smith when he informed him, “You can do it. We can help.” Atlanta then went out signed prized free agent RB Michael Turner and drafted QB Matt Ryan with the 3rd pick in the NFL draft. The new triumvirate paid immediate dividends when the Falcons went from a 4-win bust to a playoff team in one fell swoop. That being the case, we will be the first to point out the fact that Atlanta has never had back-to-back winning seasons in its 43-year history. To make matters worse, the Falcons will take on the league’s fourth toughest schedule in 2009, playing only two games against teams that had losing records last year. Unless the defense stiffens substantially, we can’t help but believe that “never” loses out again this year.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Chicago (10/18)
CAROLINA
Team Theme – FOX ON THE RUN
Thanks to a powerful running game, John Fox's Panthers returned to their winning ways last year after wallowing through an injury-filled 2007 season. As a result Carolina is favored to win the NFC South in 2009. In order to live up to those expectations, it will need to fortify a soft rush defense that allowed more than 120 yards on the ground in seven of its final nine games last year. While it’s difficult to fade the crafty Fox as an underdog (34-19-1 ATS), we have no reservations fading him when he lays points at home (18-25-2 ATS). Pay close attention to Fox’s weakest role: a home favorite against .666 or greater opposition (1-7-1 ATS). With only one game on the entire schedule against a team that had a losing season last year, the hunt for wins will be tougher to find in 2009.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Buffalo (10/25)
NEW ORLEANS
Team Theme – PAYTON’S PACE
While most NFL teams focused on shoring up their offenses this off-season, offensive juggernaut New Orleans was busy beefing up its defense. Head coach Sean Payton learned the hard way that a good offense is rendered meaningless without a defense. He’s excited about procuring the services of Gregg Williams, the former head coach with the Ravens and defensive coordinator with Jaguars, Redskins and Titans. "We targeted Gregg as the coach we wanted to hire after our first interview because he was so impressive and prepared," said Payton. "As an offensive coach, I have game-planned against his defenses in the past, and I know the problems they create. He's an aggressive coach, but his units are always sound fundamentally.” Amazingly, the Saints were the best team in the NFL ‘In The Stats’ last year when they outstatted all but three foes, yet missed out on the post-season. If New Orleans can gain measured improvement from Williams’ schemes, it will be playoff bound in 2009.
PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (11/8)
TAMPA BAY
Team Theme – BOOT SCOOTIN’ BOOGIE
Let’s make one thing perfectly clear. This is not the same Tampa Bay team we’ve come to admire the last dozen seasons. Those teams were coached by Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden and made it to the playoffs on six different occasions, winning a Super Bowl in 2002. Dungy and Gruden leave the coaching ranks this season, one by choice; the other by boot. Their shoes leave a big imprint, sizes of which Raheem Morris will have trouble filling. Brooks and Dunn (Derrick and Warrrick) have also moved on, hanging up their spikes in favor of an influx of new talent. Morris realizes a rebuilding project is underway, so patience becomes the operative word this season. Aside from taking on the fifth most difficult schedule this year (only three opponents were losing teams in 2008), Morris will conclude the season away from home in four of his final six games. That ain’t no way to go, for a brand new man.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Seattle (12/20)
Former Jets Head Coach Eric Mangini was 3-1 SU during last year's exhibition season with New York. He's now in his first year in Cleveland and has brought most of his staff with him. You can be sure that he wants Browns ownership and fans to know that he can make this team a winner and that he was the right man for the job. A win here would increase everyone’s confidence following the Browns disappointing 4-12 finish to the 2008 season.
While Browns Quarterbacks Brady Quinn and Derek Andersen will never be confused with the Joe Montana and Steve Young controversy years ago in San Francisco, they are both capable of being starters in the NFL- Andersen played in the Pro Bowl a few years back and Quinn lead Notre Dame to several winning seasons and Bowl games. That was the past and they must now impress the new coaching staff that they can produce in the new offensive system as they battle for the starting position. Not only will this starting battle insure that both of these guys are going to be playing their best, but that they will be splitting a lot of playing time during the Preseason.
After a disappointing 6-10 finish last season, Green Bay hired Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers to install his 3-4 defensive system. While starting positions are up for grabs, changing from the 4-3 to the 3-4 will take some learning and may allow Cleveland’s battling QBs to mae some big plays in this preseason contest.
Football 8/11
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