Game of the day: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
By VICTOR RYAN
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans (-3, 31)
Matchup stats and trends
Who's in, who's out
As is customary of the first preseason game, the starters are expected to play no more than two series for both teams minus a couple of exceptions.
Bills head coach Dick Jauron said this week that all four quarterbacks on the roster are expected to play and that particular focus will be placed on the team’s revamped offensive line.
All five of the Bills’ projected starting O-linemen will be playing different positions this season, mostly as a result of the loss of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters in the offseason. That includes first and second round picks Eric Wood and Andy Levitre.
Jauron said Wood and Levitre will play extensively Sunday, while one starter, tackle Brad Butler, will not dress.
Running back Marshawn Lynch, who has suspended for the first three games of the regular season because of off-the-field conduct, will not play. Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes are expected to pick up the slack.
Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher called it “an honor” to be playing in the Hall of Fame Game and added “we’ll clearly be competitive throughout the game.”
Fisher has played it close to the vest this week with regard to playing time. Don’t forget that the Titans didn’t open their training camp until July 31 while Buffalo reported a full week earlier.
Kerry Collins is expected to start at quarterback and speculation out of Tennessee is that backup Vince Young will start the second half and play the entire third quarter, though it was not confirmed by Fisher.
Wide receiver Kenny Britt, the Titans’ first-round pick out of Rutgers, has a sore hamstring and will not play.
The Titans are also banged up on the offensive and defensive fronts. Defensive tackles Spencer Johnson and John McCargo, who are competing to replace All-Pro Albert Haynesworth, both had to leave practice Friday and it will be a game-time decision.
Coming and Going
The hype this week has surrounded the Buffalo debut of wide receiver Terrell Owens. The Pro Bowler adds to an already solid cast of receivers in Buffalo that features Lee Evans, Roscoe Parish and Josh Reed. All three are expected to play a significant role in the Bills’ newly-installed no-huddle offense.
The Titans’ most significant offseason acquisition was receiver Nate Washington from the Steelers. Washington caught 40 balls for 631 yards and three touchdowns as Pittsburgh’s primary slot receiver last season. Tennessee hopes he can provide a much-needed downfield threat.
Line Movement
The Titans opened as 3-point favorites with the total set around 31, but that’s changed slightly at some books. Action on the Bills and the over has resulted in some shops pushing the line to Tennessee -2.5 with the over/under number a half point higher at 31.5.
Trends
The Titans are 27-25 against the spread in the preseason under Fisher’s guidance. The over is 28-23-1 in August games coached by Fisher. Jauron, entering his fourth season as the Bills’ head man, is 7-5 ATS in the preseason. The over has gone just 4-8 during that time.
In the last 10 Hall of Fame games the over/under is 5-5.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 91 degrees in Canton with gusty winds.
Sunday nights’ Hall of Fame Game from Canton, Ohio officially launches the NFL season, in this, the 19th campaign since the league was incepted back in 1920. Oh baby!
Squares and sharps are easily marked right about now by way of their attitude towards football betting during the preseason.
Novices will shy away from placing even a single preseason football bet, their theory being that the teams are in a state of flux, and the best players may or may not see action.
Sophisticated football handicappers understand that these abnormalities transcend into wagering opportunities if they can properly identify the coaching strategies that will dictate how the game will play out, which includes the emphasis placed on winning versus just evaluating talent.
It is evident that the bookmakers agree with the sharps since preseason NFL wagering limits tend to be skimpy at best while betting lines are known to move upwards of 5 to 6 points from the opening number to kick off. .
As a general rule, there is an inverse relationship between the betting limit and the amount of risk that the house has determined it is willing to take on. When the house takes on that added risk they tend to move their lines quicker to dissuade one-sided action which effectively minimizes their exposure. In other words, the books realize that sound football handicapping can eliminate their edge in the preseason
Travel is always a factor, but it tends to have a limited effect during the preseason. Players are obviously fresher, and maintain that freshness by absorbing fewer bumps and bruises by as a result of the expanded rosters which translates into reduced playing time.
During the preseason, the rigors of the NFL schedule have yet to take its toll, while cross-country trips are a rarity. There are only two such games this preseason as the Cardinals travel to Heinz Field in the opening week for a Super Bowl rematch with the Steelers, while the Chargers take on the Falcons in Atlanta in the third preseason game, which is recognized by most coaches as the most critical contest in terms of starter preparation and evaluating talent in advance of slicing the roster to the 53-man limit.
From a results standpoint, coaching tendencies are the single most critical factor in determining the success or failure of an NFL team during the preseason. Obviously, the coach dictates who plays, for how long, and must decide whether to tip the scales towards winning or just evaluating personnel. Successful football handicapping involves in-depth analysis of a coach’s projected game plan.
Those coaches who are established and with a history of success tend to care less about chalking up what are essentially meaningless victories as they are generally beyond having to prove anything to ownership or the fan base. Jeff Fisher, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, Tom Coughlin, John Fox, and Bill Belichik fall into this category, though the latter three have historically treated sports bettors favorably during the preseason.
By contrast, those coaches on the hot seat tend to step it up during this time as a means to reasserting a winning attitude and creating some added job insurance for themselves. Notable coaches that fall into this category are Marvin Lewis, Dick Jauron, Wade Phillips Gary Kubiak, and Jack Del Rio. It should be noted that the latter two have combined to go 23-10 ATS (69.6%) during their preseason coaching tenures with their respective clubs.
New coaches are always worth consideration as they are very likely to try to instill a winning attitude from the outset, even at the expense of playing their regulars added minutes. Ego factors in as they want to show friends, family, fans, and management that they are a worthy choice while quickly building a foundation for success. Nine new coaches populate the NFL this year so there will be abundant opportunities from which to choose.
Beware the coaches that bring in new schemes or alignments as there is usually a period of adjustment that will likely occur. While the philosophy of taking two steps back to go three forward makes sense in the long run, it may create wagering opportunities once the learning process gets underway. There are at least a few NFL teams that will be shifting to a 3–4 defense this season, something NFL handicappers should be on the look out for.
It stands to reason that one must consider the quarterbacking position from an entirely different prospective during the preseason. The seasoned starter is given as much playing time as is needed to sharpen his game and little more if anything. Thus, analyzing the QB depth chart and rotation are critical in determining how much productivity will be generated from the signal caller position. Teams that carry third string and forth string QB s with solid NFL experience rate a distinct advantage over those teams that will be showcasing rookies who will be seeing an NFL defense for the first time.
The Raiders, Chargers and Texans fall into that category and accordingly should enjoy a decided advantage in the latter stages of their contests.
Remember that gamers like Brady, Manning and Brees will gut it out in November but will give way to upstarts named O’Connell, Sorgi and Brunell during August. It’s all about the rotation. Do your homework!
Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money. A year ago in ‘07 for the NFL preseason at Vegasinsider.com my preseason selections went a documented 12-3 hitting at a solid 80%. All these plays were found in my NFL preseason report I released.
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 11 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.
Here are the 11 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:
Cleveland - Eric Mangini
Denver – Josh McDaniels
Detroit – Jim Schwartz
Indianapolis – Jim Caldwell
Kansas City – Todd Haley
N.Y. Jets – Rex Ryan
Oakland – Tom Cable (interim coach last season)
St. Louis – Steve Spagnuolo
San Francisco – Mike Singletary (interim coach last season)
Seattle – Jim Mora
Tampa Bay – Raheem Morris
OK, so here are this year’s highly rated preseason money making trends for each team.
Arizona – In his two years as head coach of the Cardinals, Ken Whisenhunt has given as some solid preseason trends to make some money with this year. Whisenhunt has shown no interest in winning his first or last preseason games, going a perfect 0-4. Plus he showed defense was not one of his top priorities as Arizona in the past 2 preseasons has seen the 'over' be the right side in six of the Cardinals' eight games. So right off the bat let’s keep an eye out for some high-scoring games from the Cardinals this preseason. Plus let’s definitely fade them when they play the Broncos on Sept 3.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Leinatt, Kurt Warner, Brian St. Pierre, and Tyler Palko
Atlanta – Last year in my annual preseason profit report I told you that new head coach Mike Smith who helped build the solid Jacksonville defense as their defensive coordinator over the past five seasons would immediately bring in the Jaguars mentality of a solid running game and a bruising defense. All this will lead to some very low-scoring games this preseason for the Falcons, which makes the 'under' a strong value play here. Well this turned into an instant profit as the Falcons saw the 'under' go 3-1 in the preseason. So let’s continue to keep an eye out on the 'under' once again this year. Plus, you have to throw in that in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last five years, the Falcons have gone a perfect 5-0 outscoring their opposition 121-45. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 29 when they play San Diego at home.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley, and John Parker Wilson (rookie-Alabama)
Baltimore – In the past four preseasons, the Ravens have played some really low scoring games with the 'under' going 11-4. This trend continued last season with new head coach John Harbaugh playing it close to the vest as the Ravens watched the 'under' go 3-1. Plus let’s watch the Ravens as a possible play against this year as Harbaugh showed little interest as the preseason progressed losing his last three games.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, John Beck, and Drew Willy (rookie-Buffalo)
Buffalo – This will be **** Jauron’s fourth preseason as head coach of the Bills. In the Bills' first preseason game Jauron has had them ready to play covering all three of his Week 1 preseason games. This continues a trend that has seen the Bills go a perfect 5-0 against the spread in Week 1 of the preseason over the past five years. This is developing into one of my strongest preseason trends. This year’s play is on Aug. 9 as the Bills will face the Titans in the Hall of Fame game at Canton, Ohio. Plus, you have to throw in here that in the past three preseasons the Bills are a perfect 7-0 when they take the field as an underdog.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Baker (rookie-North Carolina), and Gibran Hamdan
Carolina – With John Fox as head coach the Panthers he has been all over the place in the preseason over the years showing no consistent trends that we can rely on a yearly basis. Except for one extremely strong trend that has seen Carolina lose their last preseason game of the year to the Steelers in three of the last four years. So let’s look for this trend to continue this year as the Panthers host Pittsburgh on Sept. 3.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, Josh McCown, Matt Moore, and Hunter Cantwell (rookie-Louisville)
Chicago – The Bears under Lovie Smith has just been another team with nothing to write about in the preseason going 7-9 over the past four years. However a monster preseason total play has developed over the years with Chicago. The Bears have seen the 'under' go 6-0 in their last preseason game of the year the past six years, and five of these were against the Browns. This matchup occurs again this year on Sept. 3 when the Bears host the Browns. Perfect trend here guys so don’t let this one pass you by.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, and Brett Basanez
Cincinnati – Two nice trends have developed for head coach Marvin Lewis over the past three preseasons. First the Bengals are a perfect 3-0 in their first preseason game of the year, and secondly boy does Cincinnati finish strong on the preseason also winning the past three years including a blowout win at Indianapolis as a 'dog last season. This year’s two plays are against New Orleans on Aug. 14 and once again against the Colts at home on Sept. 3.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Carson Palmer, J.T. O’Sullivan, Jordan Palmer, and Billy Farris (rookie-Colorado State)
Cleveland – With Eric Mangini taking over as the head coach of the Browns it must be said here that Mangini was a money maker as the Jets head coach going 4-1 both straight up and against the spread when he took his team on the road. This year’s first road game for the Browns will be on Aug. 15 when they play the Packers.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Brett Ratliff, and Richard Bartel (rookie-Tarleton State)
Dallas – In his first two years as the Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips showed no interest at all in trying to win when Dallas took to the road going a perfect 0-4. Definitely a strong trend to follow here with the Cowboys two road games this preseason being Aug. 13 against Oakland, and Sept. 4 against Minnesota.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Rudy Carpenter (rookie-Arizona State), and Stephen McGee (rookie-Texas A&M)
Denver – Bill Belichick disciple Josh McDaniels takes over as the Broncos new head coach. With a new coach and three new quarterbacks it’s hard to give any recommendations on the Broncos for this preseason. However what really still stands out is the Broncos willingness to dominate in their final preseason game of the year going 8-1 against the spread in their last nine with their only loss coming back in '04.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, and Tom Brandstater (rookie-Fresno State)
Detroit – The defensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans the last eight seasons Jim Schwartz takes over as the new head coach of the 0-16 Lions. Look for Detroit with the new mind set of every new coach with defensive ties to highlight the run and strengthen the defense to play a bunch of fast moving low scoring games this preseason. Plus throw in the weak and inexperienced quarterback rotation that the Lions will feature this preseason, and you can see how all this will lead to some solid plays on the 'under' in their games.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Daunte Culpepper, Matthew Stafford (rookie-Georgia), and Drew Stanton
Green Bay – In his first three years as the Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has just been around a .500 preseason coach, so no real advantages to jump on here. However a solid trend has developed that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide open gameplan over the past three years that has seen the 'over' go an impressive 9-3 in the preseason. With the same quarterback rotation returning from last year makes for another high-scoring preseason and some nice winning tickets once again on the 'over' in this spot.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Aaron Rogers, Brian Brohm, Matt Flynn
Houston – Gary Kubiak has shown some winning trends as the head coach of the Texans. First let’s look for a strong showing in Week 3 against the Vikings as Kubiak and the Texans have covered all three of their dress rehearsal games. Plus you should note that the Texans have seen seven of their last eight preseason games go 'over' the total.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky, Alex Brink (rookie-Oregon)
Indianapolis – With Jim Caldwell taking over as head coach, and with the Colts having a new offensive coordinator, OL coach, and defensive coordinator, will have to just take a step back and just watch what trends develop down the line with the Colts. One trend we still have to watch with Indianapolis is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-6 against the spread the last seven years. This year the Colts finish out the preseason when they pay a visit to Cincinnati on Sept. 3.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, Chris Crane (rookie-Boston College), and Curtis Painter (rookie-Purdue)
Jacksonville – The Jaguars are sure known for their defense in the regular season. However head coach Jack Del Rio has pulled in the reins during the last four preseasons, allowing the Jaguars to open things up offensively as they work on improving their passing game. As a result the 'over' has gone 11-5. Look for this trend to again be a money maker this year as the odds makers continue to post low totals on all of the Jacksonville preseason games. Plus while most teams just want to go thru the motions in their final preseason game, the Jaguars are just the opposite as they have won their last preseason game the last three years, winning two of them outright as a 'dog.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: David Garrard, Cleo Lemon, Todd Bouman, and Paul Smith
Kansas City – With the Parcells/Belichick disciples Scott Pioli taking over as GM, and Todd Haley taking over as head coach. I look for the Chiefs to turn around their losing ways in the preseason right off the bat as they field one of the strongest quarterback rotations in the preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, Tyler Thigpen, Ingle Martin
Miami – Last year I told you “With Bill Parcells taking over as executive VP for football operations of the Dolphins, and surrounding himself with all of his Dallas buddies. Have to look for some improvement from Miami this preseason as Parcells always tried to win in the preseason. Even when he took over a bad Cowboys team he immediately started winning in the preseason.” Well this turned an immediate profit as the Dolphins won 3 of their 4 preseason games last year with two of them as an outright underdog. Look for this trend to continue this season as Parcells brings in more of his kind of players.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Pat White (rookie-West Virginia)
Minnesota – In his first three years as the head coach of the Vikings, Brad Childress has started to show us a strong trend that can help us make some money this preseason. It’s obvious that Childress does not care about the opening preseason game as he just goes thru the motions losing all three years that he has been head coach. Plus have to add in here that the Vikings were favorites in all of these losing efforts. This year’s preseason opener is against the Colts on Aug. 14.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, John David Booty, and Sean Glennon (rookie-Virginia Tech)
New England – Belichick and the Patriots used to be a big money maker in the preseason thru the years. However, since the Super Bowl rings have started to add up the preseason has just become a waste of time. The only game that Belichick tries in now is the Patriots dress rehearsal game where they have gone 5-2 against the spread the last seven. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on the road on Aug. 28.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Matt Gutierrez, Kevin O'Connell, Brian Hoyer (rookie-Michigan State)
New Orleans – In his three years as head coach of the Saints, Sean Payton has gone just 6-7 against the spread. However a nice value play for this upcoming preseason is that New Orleans has lost five of their six home games under Payton.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Mark Brunell, Tyler Palko
New York Giants – Head coach Tom Coughlin has always stressed defense when it comes to winning in the regular season. Well nothing is different in the preseason as the Giants have seen 8 of their last 12 preseason games stay 'under' the listed total. A strong play every year is when the Giants match up with the Jets as this game has gone 'under' the total for four straight years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, David Carr, Andre Woodson
New York Jets – With Rex Ryan as defensive coordinator with Baltimore over the past four seasons, we saw the Ravens play some very low-scoring games. In the preseason, the 'under' went 11-4 in the last 15 Ravens games. With Ryan getting promoted to head coach of the Jets, I look for him to instill the Ravens tough defense tendencies on this Jets defense, which will lead to a bunch of 'under' plays for this preseason. And, remember that the Jets will also be starting a rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez. So the Jets offense this preseason will be very vanilla at best.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Sanchez (rookie-USC), Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge, and Chris Pizzotti (rookie-Harvard)
Oakland – Tom Cable (interim coach last season) officially takes over as the Oakland head coach this season. Even though we have yet another new head coach here, we still have a couple of solid trends to checkout for the Raiders this preseason. First of all Oakland is 5-1 against the spread at home over the past three years. Plus they are a solid 13-4 'under' during the past four years no matter who the coach is.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: JaMarcus Russell, Jeff Garcia, Andrew Walter, and Bruce Gradkowski
Philadelphia – Andy Reid and the Eagles show no trends that we can take advantage of going 14-15 in the preseason over the last seven years. However we still can make a ton of money on the Eagles as Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year going a perfect 0-5 in their opener not winning their first preseason game since '03. The Eagles open up this year against the Patriots at home on Aug. 13.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb, AJ Feeley, Kelvin Kolb, and Adam DiMichele (rookie-Temple)
Pittsburgh – In last year’s Preseason Profit report I told you that Mike Tomlin took over as the new head coach of the Steelers. Tomlin was the Minnesota Vikings' defensive coordinator in 2006 after spending the previous five seasons as defensive backs coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In his first preseason as defensive coordinator last year with the Vikings defense ruled in the preseason with Minnesota giving up only 16, 10, 7, and 10 points. May be something we can take advantage of in his first preseason as head coach of the Steelers. Well this information was right on as the Steelers saw 4 of their 5 preseason games stay under the total. This builds on a strong trend that has now seen the under go 11-2 over the past 3 preseason’s for the Steelers. This is a solid trend here guys so keep your eyes on this total play this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, Mike Reilly (rookie-Central Washington)
St. Louis – The Giants recent defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo takes over as the new head coach of the Rams. And with his new style of offense which will feature a run-oriented gameplan the "Greatest Show on Turf" is now a thing of the past in St Louis. This automatically sets up for some low-scoring game this preseason, so let’s take a serious look at the 'under' before the oddsmakers make the necessary adjustments to the Rams posted totals especially in their early games this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Keith Null (rookie-West Texas A&M)
San Diego – This will be Norv Turner’s third year as head coach of the Chargers. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders back in 2004 and 2005 a solid trend can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseason games. First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend has continued as Turner has not covered his dress rehearsal game the first two years in San Diego making him a perfect 0-4 ATS. So let’s watch for when the Chargers play the Falcons on Aug. 29 this year. After reading my write-up on the Falcons this game can be my strongest release of the entire preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst
San Francisco – This will be Mike Singletary’s first preseason as head coach of San Francisco. Even though we have nothing to go on with Singletary, with the intensity that he brings on a daily basis I would say I would keep a very close look on the 49’ers having a very profitable preseason this year. We should have a strong play right off the bat as the 49ers Week 1 opponent the Raiders, who have lost their last five preseason road contests.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard, and Nate Davis (rookie-Ball State)
Seattle – Jim Mora takes over as head coach of the Seahawks. Mora was the Seattle DB coach last season so he was around for this very strong preseason trend for the Seahawks that has seen 13 of the last 18 Seattle games go 'over' the total, including 3-1 last year. Plus have to add in here is that Mora in his last season as head coach of Atlanta in '06 saw the over be the right side in three of the four Falcons preseason games. All this makes the 'over' in the Seahawks preseason games a very strong play for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Jeff Rowe, and Mike Teel (rookie-Rutgers)
Tampa Bay – Raheem Morris takes over as head coach of the Buccaneers. Last season, Morris was on the Tampa Bay staff as the secondary coach. So he has been around to be a part of this overwhelming preseason trend. The Buccaneers have one of the top preseason trends that we look forward to every year. Tampa Bay has been a perfect 7-0 in their opening preseason game the last seven years. I look for this trend to easily continue this year with an experienced quarterback rotation that the Buccaneers have this preseason. This year’s preseason opener will be against a Tennessee team that will be coming off of a short week after playing in the Hall of Fame game.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Byron Leftwich, Brian Griese, Luke McCown, and Josh Freeman (rookie-Kansas State)
Tennessee – A strong preseason trend has developed for head coach Jeff Fischer over the past 4 years as he has sure opened things up offensively in the Titans last preseason game of the year seeing 182 points scored in these games. This year’s last preseason game is against the Packers on Sept. 3. Also have to add here is that these two teams have combined to play these wide open games the last 4 years. So let’s look for more of the same this season.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Ingle Martin
Washington – Under head coach Jim Zorn the Redskins continued their losing ways in the preseason that have now seen them go 5-11 over the past four seasons. Something to really watch for is that Washington has now lost their last preseason game the last four years. This year’s opponent in their last preseason game will be the Jaguars on September 3rd.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel (rookie-Missouri)
So as you can see there will be a ton of opportunities this preseason to really start to build our bankroll for the regular season.
(All results pertain to preseason only and are most recent ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise*)
HOME TEAM listed in CAPS
HALL OF FAME GAME
Sunday, August 9
Buffalo vs. Tennessee from Canton, Ohio (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Buffalo - 6-0 Game One… 11-1 L12 as dog… 0-5 UNDER Game One
Tennessee - SERIES: 5-1 SU… 1-3 SUATS Game One… FISHER: 1-3 SUATS on neutral fields
WEEK 1
Thursday, August 13
New England at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EDT)
New England - SERIES: 5-2 (6-1 SU)…5-0-3 Game One… 12-6-3 vs NFC… BELICHICK: 15-8-2 w/rev vs NFC
PHILADELPHIA - 5-0 SUATS Home One… 3-16 SUATS Game One
Washington at Baltimore (7:30 p.m. EDT)
Washington - 11-3 RD 3 < vs AFC… 2-7 UNDER vs AFC
BALTIMORE - 1-3 SUATS Home One… 2-8 UNDER Game One… 3-11 UNDER as fav… 4-11 UNDER vs NFC
Arizona at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Arizona - SERIES: 2-0 SUATS… 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS vs AFC… 3-6 as dog Game One
PITTSBURGH - 12-6 as pick/fav Home One… 1-10-1 UNDER vs NFC… TOMLIN: 2-6-1 UNDER
Dallas at Oakland (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Dallas - SERIES: 4-0 SUATS… 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS vs AFC… 1-7 UNDER Game One
OAKLAND - 3-0 SUATS Home One… 3-0 SUATS Game One… 6-1 as fav… 1-9 UNDER as fav… 3-13 UNDER L4Y
Friday, August 14
St. Louis at N.Y. Jets (7:05 p.m. EDT)
St. Louis - 1-5 as dog… 3-12 Away One… 3-7 SUATS vs AFC… 0-5 UNDER > 37… 1-5 UNDER Game One
NY JETS - 4-1 SUATS Game One… 5-2 SUATS Home One… 2-4-1 as fav
Minnesota at Indianapolis (7:30 p.m. EDT)
Minnesota - SERIES: 4-0… 5-0 vs AFC… 8-3 SUATS as dog Game One… 2-4 UNDER Game One
INDIANAPOLIS - 0-5 SUATS Home One… 1-7 L8 home games… 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS L4Y… 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS Game One… 10-4 OVER vs NFC
Cincinnati at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Cincinnati - SERIES: 0-5 SUATS… 3-9 SU Game One… LEWIS: 0-9 w/pre season revenge
NEW ORLEANS - 0-11 (1-10 SU) Home One… 2-13 (3-12 SU) fav… 2-6 SUATS Game One… 3-9-1 UNDER vs AFC 1-5… UNDER Game One… PAYTON: 1-3 SUATS fav
Denver at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EDT)
Denver - 9-3-1 Game One… 19-9 vs NFC (11-3-1 away)… 1-7 UNDER Away One
SAN FRANCISCO - SERIES: 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS… 4-1-1 Home One… 6-2 SUATS L8 home… 8-3-1 last 12 games
Saturday, August 15
Atlanta at Detroit (4:00 p.m. EDT)
Atlanta - SERIES: 2-0-1… 3-0 RF's… 2-4 Away One
DETROIT - 1-6-1 L8 as fav… 3-9-3 HF in season opener
Chicago at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Chicago - SERIES: 8-1 SUATS… 8-2 Away One Game One… 7-3-1 vs AFC… SMITH: 6-1 dog 3 >
BUFFALO - 3-13 Home One… 0-10 UNDER vs NFC… 0-4 UNDER Game One… JAURON: 1-9 SU and 0-10 last ten home
Cleveland at Green Bay (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Cleveland - 7-3 L10 as dog… 1-5 SUATS vs NFC… 1-5 UNDER Game One… 1-5 UNDER Away One… MANGINI: visitor 9-2-1
GREEN BAY - 10-3 SUATS Home One… 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS vs AFC… 1-7 UNDER Game One
Tampa Bay at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Tampa Bay - SERIES: 4-0 SUATS… 5-0-1 (6-0 SU) Game One
TENNESSEE - 1-3 SUATS Home One… 2-6 SUATS last six home
Houston at Kansas City (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Houston - 3-0 SUATS Away One… 2-4-1 Game One… 3-0 OVER Game One
KANSAS CITY - 3-17 L5Y… 1-4 SUATS Game One… 1-6-1 UNDER Home One
Seattle at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EDT)
Seattle - 4-1 SUATS Away One… 4-2 SUATS Game One
SAN DIEGO - SERIES: 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS… 2-6 Game One… TURNER: 2-5 Game One
Monday, August 17
Jacksonville at Miami (7:30 p.m. EDT)
Jacksonville - SERIES: dog 5-1… 10-3 L13 away… 10-4 SUATS vs AFC… DEL RIO: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS as dog
MIAMI - 2-8 SU Game One… 6-17-1 Home One
Carolina at N.Y. Giants (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Carolina - 15-4 vs NFC (10-2 dog)… 6-2 Game One… 4-2 SUATS Away One… FOX: 8-3 dog… 8-0 OVER vs NFC… 6-1 OVER Game One
NY GIANTS - SERIES: 1-5 SUATS… 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS vs NFC
BUFFALO (2 - 2) vs. TENNESSEE (3 - 1) - 8/9/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
This is a game that I normally do NOT wager on. But there ARE plenty of people who WILL be making a bet on Sunday night as we welcome the first game of the 2009 season. SO.... some of tonight's ATS and OU tendencies and patterns are 'on the house' from KING CREOLE:
Since 1999, HALL OF FAME game favorites are 6-4-1 ATS (and 3-1-1 ATS last 5 years)....
Since 1999, the HALL OF FAME game has gone 6-5 O/U....
Average game line in the HALL OF FAME game has been -2.7 points since 1999....
Average OU line in the HALL OF FAME game has been 34.3....
Average total points scored in the HALL OF FAME game has been 34.1....
Now let's look at both of tonight's teams:
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in Game One of the pre-season the last 6 years... and 1-5 O/U (average total points: only 24.8 PPG).
TENNESSEE is 6-4-1 ATS in Game One of the pre-season the last 11 years (1-3 ATS last 4).... and 2-4 O/U in last 6 years (average total points: only 28.7 PPG).
Since the 2002 season, ALL NFL exhibition GAME ONES with an OU line of 32 or less points have gone 3-7 O/U... with an average of 26.7 points per game.
Welcome back NFL! ....We haven't seen you since King Creole hit the "OVER" in the Super Bowl between the STEELERS and CARDINALS!
G-men, thanks again for this. BTW, I "borrowed" some of what you had in your last post about pre-season and stuck it into my pre-season thread in the NFL handicapping forum.
Nfl 8/9
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