Get ready for some rambling. i'm finally done figuring out how the consensus record fared in last year's NFL season. I will also post this in the official thread. Next up will be college. Hopefully its numbers will be just as good. I still need to go over stuff like preseason/thursday/monday games, but here is what I have so far with many different angles, and how I look to play the new season. these are all sundays.

week 01 - this held me up at the start and end trying to get a good tally. the pick sources were all either new or almost too cluttered to weed out the free plays and i couldn't get a good enough read. im keeping this off the overall record, but week 1 was in the ballpark of 4-2 and both of the strongest plays won. more on the strong plays later.

week 02 - 4-1-1
week 03 - 4-5
week 04 - 8-2
week 05 - 3-5
week 06 - 5-3
week 07 - 5-2-1
week 08 - 5-3
week 09 - 4-4
week 10 - 2-7
week 11 - 4-3
week 12 - 4-2
week 13 - 4-2-1
week 14 - 8-2 (the monday night game won on an early consensus)
week 15 - 3-6
week 16 - 6-4
week 17 - 5-7

= +16 ; 74-58 ; 56.06


I could see it being way better without the dupes and free plays that got through. These are pretty rough numbers but as you can see nicely in the black

They're rough numbers because the sources are so cluttered with dupes from stupid ****s that 'think' they're contributing and free plays that make it impossible to get a true number for a season a year old. The time consumed is well worth it though to get rid of dupes and fps once the season starts, but the retards that clutter plays do kill a lot of time.



One thing that instantly hit me was how good the top plays were. By top plays I mean the top play of the day. for example, week 2's top plays were tampa 28-2 and carolina 25-3. so tampa would be the top play of the day obviously (carolina pushed). On days where there are 2 that are extremely close to each other, it might make sense to bet them both, but half the unit size. for example, in week 6 the rams were 22-3 and houston was 26-5. rams won and houston lost, so it would have been a split. this was really the only week that this happened in though. and im sure people would want to use their own common sense with this also.

here are the top play results and their rough tallies

week 01 - don't know. the 3 top plays won but not nearly as many service plays as the rest of the weeks. philly was 16-6, bills were 15-3, and tenn was 13-4. not counting these on the overall numbers. i probably left out a ton of paid plays because so many on that day looked like generic freebies.

week 02 - won (tb 28-2)
week 03 - won (was 24-7)
week 04 - won (hou 30-4)
week 05 - won (ari 40-5)
week 06 - split (see above)
week 07 - won (tenn 26-2)
week 08 - won (philly 30-3)
week 09 - lost (cle 31-8)
week 10 - lost (phi 34-9)
week 11 - won (tb 33-5)
week 12 - won (ne 40-15)

week 13 - this was thanksgiving weekend. the best plays (that tennessee @ detroit game was money if you remember) were on thanksgiving day. the top one on sunday pushed with tb 20-2

week 14 - won (no 36-5)
week 15 - lost (bal 30-8)
week 16 - won (nyg 37-8)
week 17 - won (ari 32-1)

= +8 ; 12-4-1 ; 75%

as you can tell, it would be a good idea to bet a large fixed unit on the top plays, and split the rest on the overall consensus card. or if some of you prefer, only use these in your wagers and screw the other games.


here is another thing to look at. these are the results for the top 3,4,5 plays or whatever each week. these are the plays that are far ahead of the rest of the pack for that day

week 01 ; 3-0
week 02 ; 2-0-1
week 03 ; 2-3
week 04 ; 4-1
week 05 ; 1-2
week 06 ; 1-1
week 07 ; 2-0
week 08 ; 3-1
week 09 ; 2-2
week 10 ; 0-3
week 11 ; 2-2
week 12 ; 1-1
week 13 ; 2-0-1
week 14 ; 3-2
week 15 ; 1-3
week 16 ; 3-2
week 17 ; 4-1

= +12


here's the above angle by a set tally advantage of 10 or more.

week 01 ; 2-0
week 02 ; 2-0-1
week 03 ; 2-3
week 04 ; 5-1
week 05 ; 2-3
week 06 ; 3-1
week 07 ; 3-0-1
week 08 ; 3-2
week 09 ; 2-2
week 10 ; 1-3
week 11 ; 2-2
week 12 ; 1-1
week 13 ; 2-0-1
week 14 ; 3-2
week 15 ; 1-3
week 16 ; 4-3
week 17 ; 4-1

= +15 ; 42-27 ; 60.87%



obviously the smart thing to do is to go with the 10+ angle to go along with your big unit top play. the 10+ angle featured 72 plays on the year. a helluva lot less juice lost than the 5+'s whopping 135 or so, especially with all the extra hooks bought throughout football season.

another thought might be to only bet the top play of the day. it would make sense. if you take away the top play(s) from the 10+ record there, it ends up like this

30-23 ; 56.6

profitable but only a really solid profit if you're able to invest a large bankroll. i may just go with the top play or 2 of the day.



there's more to add but i'll stop there for now. i guess another table i could do is the top 2 in each day or something. hopefully i will have college done in less than a week. hope this helps some of you. it would be great if the top play angle in college was just as good. less is more