400♦ DETROIT TIGERS RUN LINE (WITH Verlander over Pavano)
Let me start by saying I believe Carl Pavano will be a huge pickup for the Minnesota Twins. He’s a quality veteran and he knows about playing for a winning franchise, more importantly what it takes to win for a winning franchise. But this is the wrong time to throw him to the wolves, er, the Tigers, as the American League Central division leaders are on a nice little run right now, having won three straight by a combined tally of 21-13. In fact, over a 6-3 run, the Tigers have outscored their foes 44-26 in the six wins. This is the perfect spot for another blowout win …
It’s Saturday night in Motown, Pavano will have been with the team for about 24 hours and he has to face Justin Verlander, who is 12-5 on the year with a 3.29 ERA and comes in after a very strange outing I suffered through personally last Monday. I gave you the Tigers with Verlander as a 300♦ Run Line Punisher against Baltimore, yet he gave up five first-inning runs; good news was, he shut them down for the next seven innings while Detroit’s offense came back to tie the game before winning on the contest with a walk-off homer.
That outing ended Verlander's streak of quality starts at five, but it also marked the team’s fifth victory in the right-hander’s past six starts. And since he was dominant in striking out a season-high 13 Twins in his last meeting with them, back in May, and the fact he ended up with no decision tells me he will be hungry for a big game tonight.
Now I know darn well Pavano is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA versus these Tigers, but Detroit is hitting the ball too strong right now. And that won’t bode well for Minnesota’s newest right-hander, who brings a season-long 5.37 ERA into this one, and an even higher 6.75 ERA over his last three starts.
The Twins bring in losing streaks of 1-4 as a road dog, 2-7 against righties and 1-5 overall into this one. On the flipside, the jungle stripes are on winning runs of 14-3 at home against right-handers, 23-9 as the home chalk, 10-1 when Verlander is laying more than two bucks and 22-4 when he toes the slab at home against losing teams.
Big win here tonight, as the Tigers blast Minnesota for an easy win.
Lay the chalk with the Giants, and list Barry Zito over Bronson Arroyo.
How in the hell the Reds broke out last night is beyond me, but I’m sure we’re going to see an angry bunch of Giants get revenge today, especially with red-hot Zito toeing the slab.
Last Sunday, against the defending champion Phillies, the southpaw left with a six-inning 7-3 lead, which was quite a change since Zito hadn't received more than five runs of support in any one of his previous 21 starts. However, in allowing two earned runs on six hits for his third win in as many outings, the Giants’ offense did its part to help secure the win. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last four starts, posting a 2.16 ERA along the way.
He’ll be about for revenge after last year’s dismal showings against the Reds, as he was 0-2 in two starts with a 21.32 ERA.
Lay the home chalk in this one, as the Giants get revenge for last night, and Zito avenges last year’s debacles.
Chris Jordan 8/8
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