Ferringo 7-8-09
2.5-Unit Play. Take #979 Tampa Bay (-140) over Seattle (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
James Shields has been killing me. But I think he's got a good outing in him tonight. Probably not, but the bottom line is that I think he can give me more than Ian Snell. And depending on how our day goes, if you need a bailout/press play consider the 'over' here. But I'm just not into Snell. At all. The guy was 3-7 with a 5.56 ERA against American League teams when he through with the Pirates. Then he comes out in his first start with the M's and beats the Rangers in Texas. Yeah, I smell letdown. And letdown against a hungry, pissed-off-because-they-lost-last-night Rays team that sees the Yankees and Red Sox dueling and knows it needs to keep up. (They will be watching that game earlier in the day and will be hyped up tonight). Snell has a 5.16 ERA this year and I think he'll get knocked around. Shield has a 1.95 ERA in his career at Safeco and the Rays are 11-2 on Saturday and 42-15 in Game 2 of a series.
2-Unit Play. Take #970 N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, +100) over Boston (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Note: Lower to 1.5-Unit Play.
Just like C.C. more than I like Clay Buchholz. I'm not a big Buchholz guy and I just am not thrilled about his stuff. I think this game is going 'over', which means I think runs will be pouring out of the Stadium. If that is the case, I like our runline that much better. Yankees are healthier and have the better lineup at the moment. They also have a pile of revenge for what the Sox did in the first three meetings so hopefully they will pile it on. Sox have covered the runline in just one of their last 14 losses (they were favored in most of those, but you get the idea). Yankees have been winning by more than 2 runs recently so I'll look for a game in the 8-4 range.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #952 San Francisco (-140) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Garbage. Garbage, garbage, garbage loss last night with the Giants. I think that they bounce back today against a Reds team that has been terrible recently. Giants have been a dominating home team this season and should have taken Game 1. Bronson Arroyo is notoriously bad in day games in his career and with Kung Fu Panda just absolutely killing the ball right now (.625 over the last week) I think that the Giants will follow his lead. Barry Zito has been better than you think this season, and the Reds are No. 22 in the league against lefties and No. 25 in the league in day games. Giants bounce back today and get us a 'W'.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #959 St. Louis (-1.5, -120) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Rolling the dice here on the Cards over Chuckles Morton. I think that Morton is weak and I think he's going to get his ass lit up tonight. He has failed to see the sixth inning in 5 of his 9 starts for the Pirates. And after doing so in back-to-back games, and three of four, I think he comes back to reality. He's had some success lately, but that was against the Giants (two of his three quality starts this year) and I'll attribute that to matchups. He hasn't faced a lineup like St. Louis' and I think that the Cards will put up several crooked numbers today. And even if they don't get to Morton if they can bounce him early that gives us more time with Pittsburgh's No. 20-ranked bullpen. Pirates are 2-8 as a dog and just 24-51 against the Cards. St. Louis is 36-16 in Wainwright's last 52 starts and 11-5 when he gets an extra day of rest. They are also 20-8 when he starts against a divisional foe.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #976 Chicago White Sox (-110) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Weird Torres dude starting but the Sox are still favored. Hmmm. Is that because Cleveland sucks? I say yes. Justin Masterson takes the hill after being a reliever all season long. So how long do you think he's going to go tonight, four, five innings? I'll be surprised if he makes it more just because of arm fatigue. You don't really want to spot start a young kid like this and then let him throw seven or eight innings. So if he gets bounced early then we get into the Cleveland bullpen, which is fun. Cleveland has the third-worst ERA in the league and it has an ERA of just about 5.00. I don't expect much out of Torres today. But we should win a bullpen war in what should be a higher scoring game. This fits into a great runline system of mine, but with the low juice we'll just get after the 'W'.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #966 L.A. Dodgers (-170) over Atlanta (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Clayton Kershaw has been going bonkers recently, giving up zero runs in six of his last 10 starts. Kenshin Kawakami has had shoulder issues for the past month or so. With a tight ump behind the plate and a great lineup in the box I think he'll be forced to throw more pitches than he wants to early in the game. The Dodgers should get to him and if they get him out early they should be able to do some damage against the Braves' bullpen. Atlanta stole a game last night (like the Dodgers the night before). So just like Atlanta managed yesterday, I expect the Dodgers to rebound and avenge. Heavy pitching matchup edge in our favor (although I see both guys getting hit pretty hard). Rafael Furcal is starting to hit, and when he does the Dodgers are a different animal. The Dodgers are 12-5 in Kershaw's home starts and 60-25 as a home favorite. The Braves are 3-7 against lefty starters on the road and they are 7-25 as an underdog of +151 or more.
1-Unit Play. Take #978 Kansas City (-1.5, -105) over Oakland (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Going to dabble with the Royals, who were embarrassed last night. Zach Grienke is on the mound. And although he's come back down to earth a bit, he has still thrown a quality start in seven of eight outings. And the light-hitting A's lineup isn't going to get it done. The A's are starting a rookie call-up making his MLB debut. Well, the kid gets to deal with a 20-mile-per-hour wind blowing straight out to center and Jeff Kellogg behind the plate. Good luck with that. I'm sure Grienke will be good tonight, but I think it's going to be one of his starts where he throws a lot of pitches early against a patient A's lineup. Regardless, he's going to last a hell of a lot longer than the kid, Mortensen, tonight.
Today’s Totals
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Note: Bump to 4.5 Units.
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Oakland at Kansas City (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Atlanta at L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.0 N.Y. Mets at San Diego (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
Note: Bump to 2.0 Units.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Arizona at Washington (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Boston at N.Y. Yankees (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
1-Unit Play. ‘Over’ 8.5 Cincinnati at San Francisco (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8)
That's it for today.
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