CC Sabathia (11-7, 3.95 ERA) takes the ball for the Yankees as they continue their four-game series in the Bronx against the Red Sox, who are set to counter with struggling right-hander Clay Buchholz (1-1, 6.05).
New York snapped a nine-game losing skid to its hated rivals with Thursday’s 13-6 victory, then came back on Friday and pulled out a 2-0 victory in 15 innings, courtesy of Alex Rodriguez’s walk-off two-run homer. The Yankees have won six in a row overall and are on additional upticks of 52-25 overall, 45-18 at home, 20-7 versus A.L. East rivals and 19-4 against right-handed starters.
Boston has followed up a four-game winning streak by dropping its last four in a row, all on the road, falling to 3-9 in its last 12 as a visitor. Additionally, the Red Sox have lost seven in a row to teams with a winning record, but they’re still on positive runs of 27-14 in divisional play and 7-2 on Saturday. Also, they’re still 9-2 in the last 11 clashes with the Yankees.
With Buchholz starting, the BoSox are on a slew of negative streaks, including 3-10 overall, 3-11 on the road, 3-7 against the A.L. East and 0-5 versus teams with a winning record. On Sunday in Baltimore, Buchholz was staked to a 7-0 lead but couldn’t even get an out in the fifth inning and finished allowing seven runs on nine hits in four innings, though the Red Sox won 18-10.
Buchholz, who does not have a quality outing in any of his last 14 big-league starts dating to last April, is 1-1 with a 7.24 ERA in three road efforts this season. He also has a 7.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees (both last April), giving up a run on four hits in six innings at home (Boston lost 4-1), then getting rocked for seven runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 15-9 road loss five days later.
Sabathia is coming off consecutive shaky outings, both on the road, allowing a combined 11 runs (10 earned) on 19 hits (three home runs) in 12 2/3 innings (7.11 ERA). He lost 6-2 to the Rays on July 28, but came back and earned an 8-5 victory at the White Sox on Sunday. The Yanks are 5-1 in Sabathia’s last six starts when he comes off five days of rest.
Sabathia is 4-2 with a 4.02 ERA in 10 home starts this year, 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA in 10 day games and 2-5 with a 4.07 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox. That includes a 4-3 loss in Boston on June 11 – his only start versus the Sox since signing with New York – as the hefty lefty yielded all four runs on six hits and two walks in seven innings.
The over is 4-2-1 in the last seven Red Sox-Yankees battles at The Stadium. Additionally, New York carries “over” trends of 5-1-1 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2-1 with Sabathia on the hill. Similarly, the Red Sox are on “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-2 against lefty starters, 7-2 when playing on grass, 9-4-1 when Buchholz starts and 7-3 when Buchholz pitches on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
Texas (61-47) at L.A. Angels (64-43)
The top two teams in the A.L. West continue their three-game series in southern California, with the Rangers’ Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.39 ERA) slated to return from a stint on the disabled list and match up for the third time this season against the Angels’ Jered Weaver (11-3, 3.73).
The Rangers jumped out to a 9-1 lead on Friday and cruised to an 11-6 victory. Texas is 13-6 in its last 19 overall and 10-2 in its last 12 against opponents that have a winning record, but it has lost four straight Saturday contests.
Despite losing on Friday, L.A. has been the hottest team in baseball over the past two months, going 35-14 in its last 49 games overall and 19-9 in its last 28 at home (8-3 last 11). The Halos are on further positive surges of 6-0 on Saturday and 7-3 against teams with a winning record
Texas is 8-2 against the Angels this season and 10-3 in the last 13 clashes dating to 2008, and it has won six of the last eight meetings in Anaheim.
Millwood hasn’t pitched since July 26 at Kansas City when he was lifted after two scoreless innings with a pulled muscle in his backside. Not including that outing, Millwood has given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts and 13 of his 21 starts this season. The Rangers are 7-3 in Millwood’s last 10 starts, but they’re a woeful 9-26 in his last 35 on the highway, and they’ve lost four straight Saturday games behind the veteran right-hander.
On the road this season, Millwood is 2-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 10 starts, including a 9-4 loss to Weaver in Anaheim on July 6 when Millwood gave up all nine runs in five innings, his worst outing of the season. For his career, he’s 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 14 starts against the Angels (1-1, 7.79 ERA in three game this season).
The Angels are 12-2 in Weaver’s last 14 starts overall, including winning his last six outings in a row, capped by Sunday’s 13-4 rout at Minnesota. However, Weaver hasn’t pitched exceptionally well during this stretch and in fact has allowed at least four runs in seven straight starts. Against the Twins on Sunday, he surrendered four runs in 6 1/3 innings, but struck out a season-high 11. The right-hander has a 6.96 ERA in his last four starts, and since June 14, his overall ERA has risen from 2.08 to 3.79.
Los Angeles is 25-9 in Weaver’s last 34 starts in Anaheim, including 10-2 this year, as he’s 7-1 with a 2.68 ERA on his own turf in 2009. The Angels are also 4-1 in his last five home outings against the Rangers, and for his career, Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts against Texas (1-1, 5.75 ERA in three starts in 2009).
With Millwood hurling, Texas is on “under” tears of 22-6-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 5-1-1 on Saturday, 7-2 versus winning teams and 5-1 when he pitches in Angel Stadium. On the flip side, the Angels have topped the total in each of Weaver’s last nine starts overall, each of his last five at home and five of his last seven against A.L. West opponents. However, the under is 6-2-1 in Weaver’s last nine starts against Texas.
As a team, Los Angeles is on a bevy of “over” streaks, including 41-14-4 overall (14-1-1 last 16), 22-5-1 at home (11-0 last 11), 23-5-2 against right-handed starters and 5-0 on Saturday. On the other hand, the Rangers are on “under” stretches of 38-15-2 overall, 6-3-1 on the road and 12-4-1 on Saturday. Finally, five of the last six meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the total, and the “over” hit in both previous Weaver-Millwood matchups this season.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (-175, 9.5)
Fans of high-scoring games should probably avoid this matchup of AL East cellar dwellers.
Baltimore is a horrendous 17-37 on the road this season. The team’s away over/under record of 29-23-2 is impressive, but the group hits a horrendous .243 in opponent’s parks. The inflated number has much more to do with the squad’s terrible pitching.
But it’s not like Toronto is swinging a big stick these days. The Blue Jays are 19th in the majors in home batting average, smacking at a below-modest .257 clip. Toronto’s home over/under record is 23-27-4 overall, with six of its past 10 games at Rogers Centre falling below the total.
Entering the weekend, seven of Baltimore and Toronto's nine meetings finished under the number, including two of the three played so far in Canada.
Pick: Under
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (-136, 8)
Royals pitcher Zack Greinke may have found exactly what he needs to get back on track with a visit from one of the more mediocre lineups in the majors.
Oakland is averaging slightly over four runs per game on the road this season with the team floundering to a disasterous, 21-33 road mark. Greinke also has allowed only one earned run in each of his past two home starts, lasting seven innings each time.
In the other dugout, the Royals have one of the better home lineups in baseball, averaging .264 with a major league-leading 26 triples in their own park.
The Royals have struggled in the second half, but should have enough with Greinke on the mound to pick up the victory.
Wainwright (12-7, 2.79 ERA) has gone eight straight starts giving up two or fewer earned runs and lowering his ERA each time out. The right-hander also leads the league in innings (158 1-3) and is fifth in strikeouts (140).
In his most recent outing, he gave up only two earned runs over seven innings against the Astros. The key to Wainwright’s success has been his ability to induce ground-ball outs. He's gotten more groundouts than flyouts six times during his eight-start hot streak. He was 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA in the month of July.
Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants)
The 31-year-old won’t be confused with a Cy Young candidate, but his performance down the stretch will be crucial to San Francisco’s playoff hopes.
Right now, those hopes look as solid as Zito’s past four starts. Zito (7-10, 4.47 ERA) has earned a quality start in three of his past four outings, allowing two or fewer runs each time during that span. In his past 25 innings, he’s allowed a total of just six earned runs.
Zito still has a long way to go to earn his astronomical contract, but with the light-hitting Reds in town, he should pad his stats and keep his team in the thick of the postseason race.
"Early in the season he had trouble getting the ball where he wanted, but he settled down and pitched some really nice games," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told the Associated Press. "We just had some trouble getting run support for him. He is a different pitcher now and his stuff has definitely picked up."
Slumping
Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels)
The right-hander picked up his first win in four starts last week. But it was in spite of his pitching. Weaver (11-3, 3.79 ERA) has given up at least four runs in seven straight starts.
Also during that stretch, he has allowed nine home runs and worked seven innings just twice. In his most recent start, a win over the Twins, he gave up four earned runs on four hits and two walks, including two home runs, in just 6 1-3 innings.
In two outings against the Rangers in mid-June, Weaver gave up a combined 11 runs on 15 hits over 12 1-3 innings.
Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks)
A little more than a week ago, Haren looked like a leading NL Cy Young candidate. What a difference three starts makes.
In easily his worst stretch of the season, Haren (11-6, 2.38 ERA) has allowed 12 earned runs in his past 17 innings. Twice in his past three starts he has been yanked after just five innings. In his most recent start against the Mets, he made it through seven, but yielded five earned runs on eight hits.
"My command wasn't as good as it has been,” Haren told reporters. “But that’s the way it has been [lately].”
Gamblers have a full slate of games on tap for Saturday, starting with a 1:00 p.m. Eastern start in Toronto with the Orioles in town to take on the Blue Jays. Then at 4:00 Eastern, Fox will regionally televise a pair of huge American League games between division contenders in the East and West. Let’s take an extensive look at both of those showdowns.
**Red Sox at Yankees**
--Most books are listing the Yankees as expensive favorites in the minus-185 range. Bettors can get a better price by going the run-line route (minus 1 ½ runs) at minus-110 odds. The total is 10 ‘over’ (minus-115).
--New York won the series opener Thursday night by pounding Boston by a 13-6 count as a minus-240 favorite. In the process, the Yankees may have sent future Hall of Famer John Smoltz into retirement. The win was their fourth straight and the first in nine head-to-head meetings with the Red Sox in 2009.
--Going into Friday’s game in the Bronx, Joe Girardi’s club had a 3 1/2-game lead over the Red Sox in the American League East. The Yankees went into Friday’s showdown with a 36-17 record at the new Yankee Stadium.
--Boston went into Friday’s play reeling. The Red Sox had lost their lead in the AL East by dropping three straight games and 11 of their last 18. They had a 27-28 road ledger.
--New York LHP C.C. Sabathia (11-7, 3.95 ERA) is 4-2 with a 4.02 ERA in 10 home assignments this year. He’s won two of his last three starts but he has a 5.95 ERA during that stretch. Sabathia hasn’t fared well against Boston, posting a 2-5 record and 4.07 career ERA. The lefty is just 2-3 with a 5.10 ERA during nine starts in day games.
--Boston slugger David Ortiz is 7-for-21 with a pair of homers against Sabathia. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay are both hitless in six career at-bats versus the southpaw. Bay missed Friday’s game and is “doubtful” on Saturday with a sore hamstring.
--Boston RHP Clay Buchholz (1-1, 6.05) got shelled for nine hits and seven earned runs in just four innings of work against Baltimore in his last start. Buchholz is considered a big-time prospect but it’s difficult for bettors to ignore his abysmal career numbers – a 6-11 record and 5.64 ERA. He is 0-0 with a 7.45 career ERA in a pair of appearances against the Bronx Bombers.
--Boston owns a 22-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
--Boston is 19-14 in day games, while the Yankees are 23-16 in such situations.
--Pending Friday’s result, the ‘over’ was 53-48 overall for the Yankees, 26-23 in their home games. On the flip side, the ‘under’ was 54-44 overall for the Red Sox, 27-24 in their road contests.
--After he got rocked by the Yankees on Thursday, Boston designated Smoltz for assignment. ESPN reported that the Red Sox have offered Smoltz the chance to go to the minors and work out of the bullpen in hopes of having him in that role later in the year. It was unclear if Smoltz would accept the designation.
**Rangers at Angels**
--Most spots have installed Los Angeles as a minus-165 favorite with a total of nine ‘over’ (minus-115). The Angels are plus-125 on the run line (risk $100 to win $125).
--Before Friday’s final, the Angels had a 4 ½-game lead over second-place Texas in the AL West. They also had a 32-20 record at home, while the Rangers were just 23-26 on the road.
--Jered Weaver (11-3, 3.79) has been downright nasty at home in 2009, compiling a 7-1 record and 2.79 ERA. The fourth-year righty, who has a 46-22 career record, is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in nine starts for day games. Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.39 lifetime ERA.
--Texas slugger Hank Blalock has traditionally feasted on Weaver with a .407 average in 27 career at-bats that have included three doubles, one triple and two homers. Josh Hamilton is 3-for-12 off Weaver with zero dingers.
--Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.39) left his last start early, working only two innings due to a strained gluteus muscle. The veteran right-hander is 2-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 10 road assignments. Millwood is 4-5 with a 4.62 career ERA against the Angels.
--Angels’ slugger Vladimir Guerrero is 5-for-6 against Millwood this season. Guerrero is batting .370 with eight doubles and four homers in 80 career at-bats versus Millwood. Juan Rivera is 8-for-21 (.381) with one homer off the hurler who came up with the Braves.
--In terms of totals, these clubs are complete opposites. Before Friday’s game, the ‘over’ was an MLB-best 62-37 overall for the Angels, 31-18 in their home games. They had also seen the ‘over’ rip off a 14-1-1 run in their last 16 contests. The ‘under’ was an MLB-best 66-36 overall for the Rangers, 29-18 in their road games.
--The Angels have been a lucrative team to support in their day games, cashing tickets at a frenetic 22-7 clip. On the flip side, the Rangers are just 14-13 in days games.
Inside the lines 8/8
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