Jason Berken has been awful with a 8.78 ERA last 3 starts and a 9.53 on the road. O's are 1-11 in his last 12 starts as an under dog and this will be the third time the Blue Jays see him this year and I expect him to get rocked as he is 0-5 in his last 5 on 4 days rest. The Orioles are 7-20 in thier last 27 in Baltimore and they are 17-37 on the road this year with 78.4% of their losses coming by more than 1 run.
Ricky Romero will go for the Blue Jays as the Jays have won by more than 1 run in their home wins 13 times in a row and 75.9% this season at home. Romero went 8 strong innings last time against the O's and keep in mind Baltimore has a .221 avg and 2.75 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year. I'm going with the Jays run line!
Take Under 7.5 runs Rays/Mariners
Friday we go with the Under on the Rays and Mariners. Why? Well we got a nice pitching match up of Felix Hernandez vs. Jeff Niemann. Niemann has pitched very well and is coming into his own as a starter now in my opinion and opening up as an under dog of +142 and now at +121 I think Vegas agrees that Niemann will throw a solid game here against the Mariners who at home this year are only averaging 3.87 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP. Niemann I would say on the other end of the spectrum for RH hurlers as I think he's becoming one of the better ones. The 6 foot 9 Niemann can be extremely intimidating and with a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts I'm confident he will improve on his only start vs. the Mariners which was only his third start of the season. He's grown up quite a bit between then and now.
Felix Hernandez will go for Seattle and he has not been the pitcher we've known this year as of late and it's because of his control which I expect to be there tonight against the Rays. Felix against the Rays at home in his career has a 0.96 ERA in 5 career starts. The Rays own a .141 average against Felix Hernandez and as any competitor Felix knows he hasn't pitched well so I'm going to bet that he bounces back here at home against a solid TB team that is riding high here, but should struggle here against Felix.
Both bullpens have been effective over their last 5 starts with the Rays winning the prize at 2.45 ERA, and the Mariners with a 3.21. Other key stats you might want to know are the Rays struggles vs. RH starters on the road as the under is 14-2 in their last 16 vs. RH starter now facing a clear top 5 pitcher in all of baseball here tonight. Rays are also backed up by their own starter where the under is 5-0 in Niemann's last 5 starts overall.
Mariners are under 12-3 in Felix's last 15 starts vs. the AL East and under 4-0 in his last 4 appearances vs. the Rays. All of this combined with the line movement and 87% of the public on the over of 8 runs and the line moving to 7.5 and I even saw it move to 7 at Bodog briefly makes it a solid chance to go under the total enjoy!
Freddy Wills 8/7
Reply With Quote