[G-men]

Craig Davis

Friday's Lineup

100 DIME ---- GIANTS (With Lincecum) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over REDS (With Bailey)

Guys, I absolutely love today's play on the SF Giants to rout the Reds at home. You saw how strong my 30-dimer on the Yankees was last night, so just imagine what I expect the Giants to do to the Reds with Lincecum on the hill. This game could virtually be over by the 5th inning because I don't expect the Reds to score more than one run by the time this game reaches its latter stages. Tim Lincecum is, once again, on top of his game and gets an offense batting just .240 for the season. Shoot, when your best hitter is batting .267 (Brandon Phillips), you know you're in for a long night. The Reds don't hit the ball in the first place, but when they travel away from Cincinnati, they're even worse. So consider this... a team that doesn't hit the ball well in the first place goes on the road (where they hit 16 points worse) to face the defending NL Cy Young Award winner... a guy who has an ERA under 2 when pitching at AT&T Park.

I just don't smell a lot of offense from the Reds tonight, and considering that Cincy is one of the few teams that has yet to ever face Lincecum, it makes matters even worse. The first time Lincecum faces any team, he dominates them. There are only two teams from the NL remaining that Lincecum hasn't faced and one of them is Cincinnati. The other, according to my calculations, is Milwaukee... another team from the NL Central. And if you look at what Lincecum has done within that division, you'd be impressed. His career ERA vs. the Cubs is 2.55 in five starts, vs. the Cardinals it's 1.61 in four starts, vs. Houston it's 1.67 in five starts and vs. Pittsburgh it's 2.86 in three starts. I'd call that dominating a division, wouldn't you? Since the Reds don't hit the ball with a ton of power and their team average is well below the league average, I think it's safe to say Cincy is going to struggle scoring runs tonight.

Furthermore, Lincecum's ERA in August so far is 0.00 (based on his last start) and his career August ERA is 2.33. And one other startling factoid... Lincecum's ERA is 1.84 when pitching under the lights as opposed to 3.04 during the day... a full run (plus) better when pitching at night. This guy has been absolute "money" since the All Star break and I see no reason for him to slow down now. His last two outings (both at home) have seen him dominate for 17 straight innings, allowing no earned runs, 11 hits, 4 walks and 23 strikeouts. There's absolutely nothing anyone can say to me that would convince me the Reds have a chance of scoring more than a couple of runs tonight, if that.

So, do I have confidence enough in the Giants offense that they'll be able to win by at least two runs? You bet I do. Aside from the fact they hit better than Cincy and their team average is a respectable .275 at home, they have one guy (Pablo Sandoval) who could change the game all by himself. He leads the Giants in batting average (.334), home runs (17) and RBIs (67) and with one swing of the bat could put the Giants up by two or three runs. So, who does this Giants offense get to face? Does Cincy have a pitcher who is capable of shutting down this Giants offense tonight? To be honest, I don't think so.

The team ERA is a respectable 4.45, but the guy they are trotting out there tonight has been far from spectacular. Homer Bailey (2-3 7.02 ERA) has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts (15 innings) and hasn't really had a quality start since early July. The biggest problem for Bailey has been his road WHIP (1.98). For whatever reason, Bailey struggles to keep baserunners off the bases (nearly two per inning) and if that continues tonight, the Giants are going to score runs in bunches. Look at it this way... even if Bailey does put together a quality start tonight, the Giants will still get to him for a couple of runs and that should be more than enough for Lincecum.

The Reds are just 9-26 in their last 35 games overall and have fallen on hard times, dropping to last place in the NL Central division. They are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. teams from the NL West, 1-11 in their last 12 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-17 in Bailey's last 22 starts. The Giants, meanwhile, are 19-7 in Lincecum's last 26 starts at home, 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record and 14-6 in their last 20 Friday night games. The writing is on the wall folks, as this one won't even be close. Take the Giants on the run line as my top play of the day.

[G-men]

Craig Davis

Today's Complimentary Selection

Ahhh, now that's more like it. I bounced back on the right track last night with an easy 30-dime winner on the NY Yankees on the run line... and that win gains me a little momentum heading into tonight's 4th straight 100-dime winner. I'm laying it all on the line tonight... my highest rated play of the season, four times over. I have a run line play that I've spotted that is simply too good to pass up. My side should win this thing by at least four runs, maybe more, and there's no reason for you NOT to jump on board. You've seen me nail three 100-dime plays this baseball season and there's absolutely no reason to think I can't make it 4 in a row tonight. Let's roll!!

I'm on a 16-6 complimentary play run, including 12-5 with my last 17 releases. Tonight's winner is on the NY Yankees to continue where they left off last night and beat the Boston Red Sox with both aces on the hill.

Yes, I realize CC Sabathia was supposed to be the ace of this staff, but AJ Burnett has actually been more consistent and seems to pitch better than Sabathia vs. Boston. Burnett was on quite a roll before his last start, and knowing what's at stake tonight, I have no doubt he'll step up his game at home.

Josh Beckett also realizes what's at stake and knows the pressure that's in front of him. However, that doesn't take away from the fact he has struggled in his career versus the Yankees, posting a 5.41 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 15 career starts. In the past, however, he's gotten some really good run support in those games and it has inflated his W/L record a tad (9-4). He's not going to get that run support tonight against New York's best.

Despite the recent additions of Victor Martinez and Casey Kotchman, the Red Sox still have offensive issues and aren't quite as talented as the Yankees lineup. This should be a close game for awhile, but in the end the Yanks will get the best of Red Sox Nation and push their lead to 4.5 games in the AL East.

2♦ NY YANKEES on a 1♦ to 5 Scale

[paulinde99]

I wonder if DeMarco is going to fire this guy? Should be interesting. Watch out! Davis appears to be chasing as a result of losing.

Craig Davis

Friday's Lineup

100 DIME ---- GIANTS (With Lincecum) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over REDS (With Bailey)

Guys, I absolutely love today's play on the SF Giants to rout the Reds at home. You saw how strong my 30-dimer on the Yankees was last night, so just imagine what I expect the Giants to do to the Reds with Lincecum on the hill. This game could virtually be over by the 5th inning because I don't expect the Reds to score more than one run by the time this game reaches its latter stages. Tim Lincecum is, once again, on top of his game and gets an offense batting just .240 for the season. Shoot, when your best hitter is batting .267 (Brandon Phillips), you know you're in for a long night. The Reds don't hit the ball in the first place, but when they travel away from Cincinnati, they're even worse. So consider this... a team that doesn't hit the ball well in the first place goes on the road (where they hit 16 points worse) to face the defending NL Cy Young Award winner... a guy who has an ERA under 2 when pitching at AT&T Park.

I just don't smell a lot of offense from the Reds tonight, and considering that Cincy is one of the few teams that has yet to ever face Lincecum, it makes matters even worse. The first time Lincecum faces any team, he dominates them. There are only two teams from the NL remaining that Lincecum hasn't faced and one of them is Cincinnati. The other, according to my calculations, is Milwaukee... another team from the NL Central. And if you look at what Lincecum has done within that division, you'd be impressed. His career ERA vs. the Cubs is 2.55 in five starts, vs. the Cardinals it's 1.61 in four starts, vs. Houston it's 1.67 in five starts and vs. Pittsburgh it's 2.86 in three starts. I'd call that dominating a division, wouldn't you? Since the Reds don't hit the ball with a ton of power and their team average is well below the league average, I think it's safe to say Cincy is going to struggle scoring runs tonight.

Furthermore, Lincecum's ERA in August so far is 0.00 (based on his last start) and his career August ERA is 2.33. And one other startling factoid... Lincecum's ERA is 1.84 when pitching under the lights as opposed to 3.04 during the day... a full run (plus) better when pitching at night. This guy has been absolute "money" since the All Star break and I see no reason for him to slow down now. His last two outings (both at home) have seen him dominate for 17 straight innings, allowing no earned runs, 11 hits, 4 walks and 23 strikeouts. There's absolutely nothing anyone can say to me that would convince me the Reds have a chance of scoring more than a couple of runs tonight, if that.

So, do I have confidence enough in the Giants offense that they'll be able to win by at least two runs? You bet I do. Aside from the fact they hit better than Cincy and their team average is a respectable .275 at home, they have one guy (Pablo Sandoval) who could change the game all by himself. He leads the Giants in batting average (.334), home runs (17) and RBIs (67) and with one swing of the bat could put the Giants up by two or three runs. So, who does this Giants offense get to face? Does Cincy have a pitcher who is capable of shutting down this Giants offense tonight? To be honest, I don't think so.

The team ERA is a respectable 4.45, but the guy they are trotting out there tonight has been far from spectacular. Homer Bailey (2-3 7.02 ERA) has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts (15 innings) and hasn't really had a quality start since early July. The biggest problem for Bailey has been his road WHIP (1.98). For whatever reason, Bailey struggles to keep baserunners off the bases (nearly two per inning) and if that continues tonight, the Giants are going to score runs in bunches. Look at it this way... even if Bailey does put together a quality start tonight, the Giants will still get to him for a couple of runs and that should be more than enough for Lincecum.

The Reds are just 9-26 in their last 35 games overall and have fallen on hard times, dropping to last place in the NL Central division. They are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. teams from the NL West, 1-11 in their last 12 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-17 in Bailey's last 22 starts. The Giants, meanwhile, are 19-7 in Lincecum's last 26 starts at home, 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record and 14-6 in their last 20 Friday night games. The writing is on the wall folks, as this one won't even be close. Take the Giants on the run line as my top play of the day.