[G-men]

INSIDE THE LINES

FRIDAY, AUGUST 7


NATIONAL LEAGUE


Florida (55-53) at Philadelphia (61-45)


Red-hot Joe Blanton (7-5, 4.02 ERA) leads the defending World Series champion Phillies in the opener of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the Marlins, who will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (7-7, 5.00).


Philadelphia halted a 1-5 slide by winning two in a row against Colorado the past two days, including Thursday’s 3-1 victory in which Cliff Lee made his home debut with the Phils by throwing seven innings of one-run ball. Despite their recent skid, the Phillies remain one of baseball’s hottest teams, as they are on runs of 22-8 overall, 16-4 at home, 6-0 against N.L. East foes and 7-3 in series openers.


Florida arrives in Philadelphia after getting swept in three games on the road by the dismal Nationals, who have the worst record in the majors. On Thursday, the Marlins jumped out to a 6-0 lead after two innings, then gave it all away and then some in a 12-8 loss, allowing the last four runs in the game-deciding eighth inning. Florida is on skids of 2-7 in division play and 3-9 on Fridays, but they’ve won four of their last five series openers.


Philly swept a three-game set at Florida last month and is 7-2 against the Marlins this season, with all but one of those wins coming on the road. The Phils are on a 9-2 overall run in this rivalry, though the Marlins have won four of the last five clashes in Philadelphia, including two of three in a May series. In fact, the visitor has won 10 of the last 11 between these squads.


The Phillies had won four in a row behind Blanton before Saturday’s road matchup against reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and the Giants. Blanton threw a solid seven innings, allowing both runs on seven hits, with no walks and five strikeouts, but he took the loss in a 2-0 setback. The right-hander has a 1.47 ERA over his past five outings.


Blanton is 4-2 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and he’s won all three of his career starts against the Marlins while posting a 3.18 ERA. With Blanton throwing, the Phils are on rolls of 4-0 at home, 8-2 in series openers and 11-4 against division opponents.


The Marlins have won three in a row and eight of 10 backing Nolasco, including Sunday’s 3-2 home victory over the Cubs, with the 26-year-old allowing one run on four hits in seven innings, walking one and striking out eight. Nolasco is 3-4 with a 6.17 ERA in 10 road starts this season, and he’s 4-3 with a 4.47 ERA in 10 career appearances (seven starts) against Philadelphia. Florida is on runs behind Nolasco of 19-7 in series openers and 4-1 against winning teams.


For Philadelphia, the “under” is on tears of 10-1 on Friday, 6-1 in N.L. East action, 5-1-1 with Blanton starting and 6-2 behind Blanton at home. The under is also 7-2 in Nolasco’s last nine starts, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings overall. However, the over for Florida is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 5-0 in N.L. East play and 7-2 in Nolasco’s last nine road starts.


ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA




AMERICAN LEAGUE


Boston (62-45) at N.Y. Yankees (66-42)


The Yankees trot out A.J. Burnett (10-5, 3.89 ERA) to face Josh Beckett (13-4, 3.27) and the Red Sox in an A.L. East battle of right-handers for Game 2 of a four-game series in the Bronx.


New York ended a nine-game losing streak to their hated rivals on Thursday and did so in emphatic fashion, scoring eight runs in the fourth inning on the way to a 13-6 victory. The Yankees are on positive runs of 28-10 overall, 8-1 versus the A.L. East, 44-18 at home and 19-8 against winning teams. Joe Girardi’s team has a 3½-game lead over Boston in the A.L. East.


Boston has now lost three in a row and is on a 3-8 road skid, but remains on upswings of 27-13 in division play and 33-16 in series openers. And along with their 9-1 run against New York, the Sox are still 4-2 in their last six games at Yankee Stadium (2-1 this year). In addition, Boston is 7-1 in Beckett’s last eight starts against the Yanks and 4-1 in his last five outings at Yankee Stadium.


The Yankees ripped off six straight wins behind Burnett before the righty got shelled last Saturday against the White Sox, giving up seven runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 road loss. Burnet is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 10 home starts this season, and he’s 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA in 10 career starts against Boston, though New York has lost both of his starts this season against the Sox, with the 32-year-old giving up 13 runs (11 earned) in 7 2/3 innings for a 12.91 ERA.


The Red Sox are 7-1 in Beckett’s last eight starts, including a 4-0 win at Baltimore on Sunday in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball, allowing six hits with two walks and five strikeouts. Beckett is 6-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 road starts this year, and he’s 9-4 in 15 career regular-season starts against New York, despite a 5.42 ERA. The Sox have won all three of his starts against the Yanks this season despite Beckett’s 5.82 ERA


With Burnett on the hill, New York is on surges of 5-0 at home and 6-1 when facing winning teams. Meanwhile, with Beckett toeing the slab, Boston is on rolls of 17-5 overall, 5-0 in the division and 7-2 on the highway.


The over is on overall runs of 5-0-1 for New York and 8-2 for Boston. Conversely, the under for the Yanks is on stretches of 7-3-1 at home, 6-2 overall behind Burnett and 6-2 with Burnett starting at Yankee Stadium, and the under for the Red Sox is on upswings of 4-2 against winning teams, 8-4 on the road and 4-1 behind Beckett.


Finally, despite last night’s slugfest, the under is 6-3-2 in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.


ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

[G-men]

Hot lines: Friday's best MLB bets


Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-119, 9.5)

A quick glance at the stats shows the Twins are a terrible road team, who are entering the series against the Tigers on a two-game losing streak. But look even closer.

Minnesota has owned Detroit this year, going 6-2 against the Tigers. Only two of the games in the season series were played in the Motor City so far, which the teams split, but the Twins have left little doubt who was the better team earlier in the year.

The Twins are averaging 6.5 runs per game against the Tigers, with their average margin of victory coming by three runs. Detroit enters the series having taken three of four from the lowly Orioles, but dropped its previous two series to the Indians and Rangers.

"That's a pesky team,” Tigers pitcher Edwin Jackson said of the Twins to the Associated Press. “That's a team that when you go out, you know you're going to have to battle against them.”

Pick: Twins +111

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers (-130, 7.5)

The Dodgers are one of the best home teams in baseball, but haven’t been playing like it, losing four of their past six at home and six of 10 overall.

Bad time to play the Braves. Atlanta has won six of its past 10 road games and two straight overall. On the road, the Braves are sixth in team ERA (4.05) and have amassed 378 strikeouts against 180 walks. The team also hits better on the road then at home. Atlanta is hitting .266 overall, but rakes at a .271 clip in an opponent’s yard.

The Dodgers offense hasn’t had much to brag about lately. A 17-run outburst against the Brewers masks the fact the team has scored five or fewer runs in eight of its past 10 games.

Pick: Braves +122

[G-men]

Friday's streaking and slumping starters


Streaking

Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants)

When the reigning NL Cy Young winner takes the mound on Friday, it will have been 16 days since a team scored an earned run against him.

Lincecum (12-3, 2.18 ERA) allowed a pair of unearned runs in a 4-2 win over the Pirates on July 27. He allowed just four hits and struck out 15 (yes, 15) over nine innings. In his most recent start, a 2-0 win over the Phillies, he gave up seven hits but allowed no one to cross home plate in eight innings of work.

And you especially don’t want to face him at home. Over the past 55 2-3 innings at AT&T Park, Lincecum has allowed a meager six earned runs.

“Tim did a marvelous job yet again,” Giants closer Brian Wilson told reporters. “Whatever he seems to do doesn't baffle us - he never ceases to amaze.”

Ricky Nolasco (Florida Marlins)

The Marlins couldn’t wait to get out of Washington after falling apart in their series against the Nationals. But for Nolasco, it doesn’t really matter who he faces lately.

Nolasco (7-7, 5.00 ERA) has churned out three straight quality starts, allowing just three earned runs over the past 20 1-3 innings. In his most recent start, he allowed only one run on four hits over seven innings in a victory against the Cubs. In the win, he also struck out eight against only one walk on just 97 pitches.

The right-hander is 1-0 over his past three starts with a 1.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched) and 23 strikeouts. Not bad for a guy demoted to the minors earlier this year.

“A couple of guys I fell behind and ended up walking, but once I was ahead, the slider was there and they just kept swinging over the top of it so I kept throwing it,” Nolasco told the Associated Press of a recent start. “It was late, sharp. So, I'm going to keep throwing it until guys prove they can hit it."

Slumping

Jason Berken (Baltimore Orioles)

Each start is like a reoccurring nightmare for Berken: hordes of players simply smacking his pitches for line drives over and over again.

Berken (1-9, 6.93 ERA) is allowing opponents to hit .315 against him as he has allowed at least seven base runners in each of his past seven outings. In his most recent start, an 18-10 loss to the Red Sox, he lasted just 1 1-3 innings after he coughed up six earned runs on seven hits and two walks.

And it’s hard to find any encouraging numbers for the 25-year-old. He has struck out just 33 against 25 walks and has an astronomical 1.71 WHIP.

"I think he's stuck and we have to do something to get him out of neutral," Orioles manager Dave Trembley said of his young hurler.

Mark Buehrle (Chicago White Sox)

The way the left-hander has pitched in his past two starts, it feels like his perfect game was last year, not last month.

Since extending his MLB-record consecutive outs streak to 45 against the Twins, he has allowed 12 earned runs over his next five innings with no strikeouts. In his most recent start, an 8-5 loss to the Yankees, he was tagged for seven earned runs on 12 hits in just 4 1-3 innings.

"You go out there and get 45 straight guys out, and then today, I can't get two guys out in a row," Buehrle said.

[G-men]

Friday Night Lights
By Kevin Rogers


Division rivalries highlight the Friday night card around Major League Baseball. Two American League races are still up for grabs inside the East and Central, while the Phillies have a hold on the NL East. One of the better pitching matchups we'll see this season takes place at Yankee Stadium between the Red Sox and Yankees.

Red Sox at Yankees (7:05 PM EST)

Two of the hotter pitchers in baseball meet up in the Bronx, as Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett take the hill for the second game of this crucial four-game set. The two ex-Marlins are each 5-1 since the start of July, while both rank in the top-10 in the AL in strikeouts.

Beckett (13-4, 3.27 ERA) continues to lead all AL pitchers in wins, looking to beat the Yankees for the fourth time this season. The last two starts against New York have been quality outings, allowing three earned runs in 12 innings of work. The only shaky outing was on April 25, a 16-11 Red Sox victory in which Beckett gave up ten hits and eight runs in five innings. Boston is 7-1 in Beckett' last eight starts against New York dating back to the end of the 2007 season.

Burnett (10-5, 3.89 ERA) was touched up by the White Sox his last time out, allowing ten hits and seven earned runs in just five innings of a 14-4 drubbing. Prior to that start, the Yankees won six straight outings by Burnett. The right-hander is 4-1 at home this season, while the Yanks are victorious in his last six in the Bronx. Burnett's numbers against the Sox this season aren't appealing, allowing 11 earned runs in just 7.2 innings of work, both losses.

Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay is expected to miss the game with a hamstring injury.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Yankees as a $1.25 home favorite, with the total listed at 9 (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'under').

Twins at Tigers (7:05 PM EST)

The AL Central race is still very much up in the air with less than two months remaining in the season. Detroit is fresh off a series victory over Baltimore, taking three of four against the O's. The Twins stubbed their toe in Cleveland, dropping two of three to the Indians.

Armando Galarraga (5-10, 5.22 ERA) has been simply wretched at night this season. The Tigers right-hander is 1-9 when the sun goes down, with an ERA of 5.24. Detroit is winless in each of Galarraga's last five starts, including three straight home losses. Galarraga has especially struggled against this Twins lineup, as the Tigers are 1-5 in his six career starts, allowing five earned runs or more three times.

Anthony Swarzak (3-4, 4.25 ERA) has gone in and out of this Twins rotation for the last two months. The young right-hander has several solid performances on his ledger, most notably winning at the Cubs and Angels since June 13. Swarzak's numbers on the road (2-0, 2.22 ERA) are better than at home (1-4, 6.29 ERA), despite striking out just 27 batters in 48.2 innings.

LVSC has listed the Tigers as a $1.25 home favorite, while the total is listed at 9 ½.

Marlins at Phillies (7:35 PM EST)

A pair of seven-game winners take the mound at Citizens Bank Park, as the Phillies and Marlins meet up in Philadelphia. Florida looks to rebound after an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the suddenly-hot Washington Nationals.

Following a horrendous June, Joe Blanton (7-5, 4.02 ERA) was 3-0 in July in four starts. Blanton lost his last outing to Tim Lincecum and the Giants, 2-0 on August 1. However, Blanton has allowed just six earned runs in his last five trips to the mound, while the 'under' has hit four times in this span. The Phillies are 3-0 in Blanton's three career starts against the Fish, including an 11-strikeout performance by the righty in a 5-3 victory on May 26.

Ricky Nolasco (7-7, 5.00 ERA) was less than stellar the first two months of the season, going 2-5 his first nine starts. Nolasco was sent down to the minors to try and regain the tools that helped him win 15 games last season. Nolasco responded by winning five of his last seven decisions, while the Fish are victorious in eight of his last ten starts. The 'under' has been a solid play recently on Nolasco's watch, hitting in seven of his previous nine outings. One of the two losses Nolasco has suffered in this stretch came against the Phillies on July 17, allowing four earned runs and seven hits in six innings of work.

The Phillies are listed as a $1.60 home 'chalk,' with the total set at 9, according to LVSC.

[G-men]

Friday's Late-Night Tips
By Brian Edwards


**Cubs at Rockies**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Colorado (59-49, +965) as a minus-125 home favorite with a total of nine flat (minus-110 either way). Bettors can expect to get the Rockies at a generous number in the plus-160 range for run-line wagers (minus 1 ½ runs).

--Jim Tracy’s team returns home after an up-and-down road trip that netted the club a 5-5 record. The Rockies lost the first three games of the trip to the Mets at Citi Field before reeling off five consecutive victories. Then they lost back-to-back contests at Philadelphia, including Thursday’s 3-1 loss as plus-155 underdogs.

--Chicago (57-49, -249) had an off day Thursday after losing 4-0 at Cincinnati on Wednesday. The loss dropped the Cubs’ road record to 24-30 for the year. They are in the Mile High City for a four-game, wrap-around series that’ll conclude a road trip that has so far seen the Cubbies go 3-3.

--The Cubs and Cardinals are tied for the lead in the National League Central going into Friday’s action. They lead the third-place Brewers by four games.

--Carlos Zambrano (7-4, 3.35 ERA) will get the starting nod for the Cubs in this spot. Zambrano is 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 road starts this season. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 3.13 ERA in eight career starts against Colorado. He left his last start after just three innings with tightness in his back but will not miss his turn in the rotation nonetheless.

--Ubaldo Jimenez (8-9, 3.76) owns a 4-4 record and 3.99 ERA in nine home outings this year. The righty hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in five straight starts. Jimenez has struggled against the Cubs with a 0-3 record and 7.27 lifetime ERA.

--Colorado owns a 27-21 home record at Coors Field. Going into this spot, the Rockies are in third place in the NL West, trailing the division-leading Dodgers by seven games. They are one game behind San Francisco in the wild-card hunt.

--The ‘under’ is 54-49 overall for the Rockies, but they have watched the ‘over’ go 25-21 in their home games.

--The Cubs have seen the ‘under’ go 56-45 overall, 29-20 in their road assignments.

--Jimenez will throw the first pitch at 9:10 p.m. Eastern.

**Rangers at Angels**

--LVSC opened Los Angeles (64-42, +2225) as a minus-130 ‘chalk’ with a total of 9 ½ flat. Gamblers can take the Angels on the run line for a plus-155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

--Mike Scioscia’s team won a 9-5 decision Thursday over the White Sox in the Windy City. The Angels hooked up their backers as plus-135 underdogs. Four players went deep for the Halos, including recently activated Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu.

--Texas (60-47, +1552) captured a 6-4 win Thursday at Oakland as a minus-120 road favorite. Tommy Hunter gave the Rangers seven solid innings en route to his fourth win of the year. They improved to 23-26 in their road games and stayed within 4 ½ games of the Angels in the AL West race.

--Joe Saunders (9-6, 5.07) will toe the rubber for the Angels, who are 32-20 at home this year. The lefty has been shelled in a pair of starts against Texas this season, going 0-2 with an ERA of 15.00. For his career, Saunders is 3-5 with a 6.52 ERA against the Rangers.

--Texas RHP Scott Feldman (10-4, 3.91) has done his best work on the road in 2009, compiling a 6-1 ledger with a 3.44 ERA in nine road appearances (eight starts). Feldman is 2-3 with a 5.23 lifetime ERA against the Angels.

--The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 66-36 overall for the Rangers, 29-18 in their road games.

--Gamblers have a tough call on the total in this spot. That’s because contrary to Texas with the majors’ best ‘under’ mark, the ‘over’ is an MLB-best 62-37 overall for the Angels, 31-18 in their home games. The ‘over’ is on an incredible 14-1-1 run in L.A.’s last 16 games.

**Rays at Mariners**

--This will be the last game to come off the board as it is scheduled for a 10:10 p.m. Eastern start. Most books are listing Seattle (56-51, +653) as a minus-135 favorite with a total of eight ‘under’ (minus-120).

--Tampa Bay (60-48, +307) has steadily climbed back into contention in both the AL East and the wild-card hunt. The Rays have won five of their last six games, including a two-game home sweep of Boston, to pull to within 5 ½ games of the division-leading Yankees (pending Thursday’s result).

--The Mariners will turn to their ace Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.78) in this situation. The hard-throwing righty hasn’t done his best work at home, going 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA in nine starts at Safeco Field. Hernandez is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in six career starts against the Rays.

--Tampa Bay RHP Jeff Neimann (10-5, 3.62) is 6-3 with a 4.12 ERA on the road. He won his only career decision against Seattle.

--The M’s own a 27-22 home record, while the Rays are just 24-30 on the road.

--Seattle is in third place in the AL West, 8 ½ games back of the Angels. The M’s still have an outside shot in the wild-card hunt, six games off the pace pending Thursday’s evening results.

--The ‘under’ is 58-45 overall but has much more prevalent on the road with a 33-20 mark.

--The M’s have watched the ‘under’ produce an even bigger profit at 63-42 overall and 27-21 in their home outings.

[G-men]

MLB movers and shakers: Pedro should help Phils
By TED SEVRANSKY - Direct From Vegas: Sports Investing for long term profits

D-backs winning under the radar

Just over a month ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks were sitting at 31-49; the second worst record in all of baseball. Their sluggish first half cost former manager Bob Melvin his job back in May. His replacement, AJ Hinch, has the team headed in the right direction.

Stephen Drew’s clutch eighth inning single capped a come-from-behind win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Arizona’s sixth win in its last seven games and 18th in its last 28.

All reports from the D-backs locker room indicate that this team has found its mojo.

“It feels like last year, where everybody’s together, and even though we’re down, it doesn’t seem like it anymore,” Drew said following Wednesday’s win. “We’re playing better, and it’s showing, and we’re having fun.”

Arizona suffered a blow when outfielder Justin Upton (second on the team with 20 home runs) strained his right oblique muscle against Pittsburgh; an injury that has the potential to result in a stint on the DL.

Despite the injury, the D-backs still have the look of a second half profit machine.

Slumping BoSox without Bay

Boston has gone 7-10 in its last 17 ballgames and they’ve fallen out of first place in the AL East.

The Red Sox sluggish offense has been a big part of the problem. Terry Francona’s club was held to three runs or less in seven of those last 10 losses.

Boston’s offensive production (or lack thereof) took another serious blow when Jason Bay went down with a strained hamstring earlier in the week. Bay leads the team in home runs (21) and RBIs (75).

He returned to the lineup on Wednesday, but aggravated the injury while running out a ground ball. Bay told reporters that he has “no idea” how much time he’s going to miss.

If Bay misses the entire series in the Bronx this weekend, expect the Yanks to get some payback from Boston’s domination earlier in the season.

Pedro’s comeback on track

The Phillies made a big move prior to the trading deadline, nabbing last year’s AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee from the Indians. Lee completes a solid five-man rotation of Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer, but Philly supporters can’t wait to see Pedro Martinez join the party.

The three-time Cy Young winner won only eight games in his final two years with the Mets, while battling a series of serious ailments. Pedro has been rehabbing in the minors, and he recently produced an eye-catching start.

Against the Yankees Double A affiliate on Wednesday, Pedro struck out nine of the first 12 batters. He finished with 11 K’s and no walks, throwing first pitch strikes to 18 of the 23 batters that he faced. He needed only 82 pitches to get through his six inning stint.

“I'm making improvements as I go on, and that's what we want,” Martinez told reporters. “Health-wise, my shoulder is fine, my arm is fine. I'm responding good between starts.”

Philadelphia has been on cruise control for the last couple of weeks, in control of the NL East race. Pedro’s return could give them a bit of a spark, making a very good team even better.

[G-men]

MLB cheat sheet: Stats and trends for Sox-Yanks
By MARC LAWRENCE - They say the harder you work, the luckier you get

With the contenders separating themselves from the pretenders this 2009 season, let’s focus on the top two series on both the American and National League slate this edition of the MLB weekend cheat sheet.

Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are ‘team starts’ (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.

National League

Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Most recent series result: Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 games (7-2 this season)

Most recent series result at the site: Marlins are 4-1 in their last nine games away (2-1 this season)

Key day/month stat: Phillies are 14-3 on Sundays in their home park

Best arm in the series: Phillies’ Joe Blanton is 5-0 with a 3.17 ERA career

Worst arm in the series: Phillies’ Cole Hamels is 1-5 with a 4.32 ERA in last six starts

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Most recent series result: Braves are 7-4 in their last 11 games (1-2 this season)

Most recent series result at the site: Braves are 3-2 in their last five games away

Key day/month stat: Dodgers are 10-1 at home on Saturdays; Braves are 1-5 away on Saturdays

Best arm in the series: Dodgers’ Jason Schmidt is 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in his last four home starts

Worst arm in the series: Braves’ Javier Vazquez is 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA in his last four games away

American League

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Most recent series result: Red Sox are 9-0 in last nine games (8-0 this season)

Most recent series result at the site: Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five games away (2-0 this season)

Key day/month stat: Yankees are 16-2 at home on Sundays; Red Sox are 2-7 away on Sundays

Best arm in the series: Red Sox’ Josh Beckett is 7-1 with a 3.82 ERA in his last eight starts

Worst arm in the series: Yankees’ CC Sabathia is 2-8 with a 5.08 ERA career

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Most recent series result: Twins are 5-1 in their last six games (6-2 this season)

Most recent series result at the site: Twins are 5-2 in their last seven games away (1-1 this season)

Key day/month stat: Tigers are 13-4 at home on Sundays; Twins are 6-12 away on Sundays

Best arm in the series: Twins’ Glen Perkins is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA career

Worst arm in the series: Tigers’ Armando Galarraga is 1-5 with a 5.86 ERA career