[G-men]

Canadian bacon: CFL Week 6 picks
Charles-André Marchand is a CFL analyst for CKAC-730 AM.


Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-14, 51.5)

Matchup trends and stats

The Alouettes (4-1) offense was slowed down last week in Edmonton leading to the club’s first loss of the campaign. Some were wondering if Montreal would lose a game after the way it came out on fire. After four consecutive weeks of generating 400-plus yards, the Als were kept to only 331 last week.

Defense is the Argos’ (2-3) saving grace this summer. Toronto’s D will need to cause a few turnovers to try and keep this one close. The turnover margin was the difference in the Argos’ loss the Blue Bombers last week.

Pick: Alouettes

Saskatchewan Roughriders at B.C. Lions (-1, 58.5)

Matchup trends and stats

Everyone knew coming into the season the Lions (1-4) would be behind the eight ball because of a series of injuries. But nobody expected Wally Buono’s team to find so many ways to beat itself. The Lions have been guilty of poor discipline, careless turnovers, sloppy run defense and a lack of imagination in the opponents’ red zone.

Is this team as bad as its 1-4 record suggests? I don’t think so.

But the Roughriders (3-2) did win in their last 10 trips to Vancouver and, strangely, have been more successful on the road so far this season. It should be a close one but this time the home team should prevail.

Pick: Lions

Edmonton Eskimos at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-1, 52)

Matchup trends and stats

Both stop units participating in this game are above average. Ricky Ray has been dominant in his last two games for the Eskimos (3-2) and his offensive line, after an atrocious start, is finally giving him some time.

The Tiger-Cats (3-2) hope RB DeAndra Cobb, who ran for 167 yards against B.C. last week, can be as successful against the Eskimos, but I wouldn’t hold my breath if a Ti-Cat fan. Edmonton’s defense has stepped up in the last two games and proved capable of stopping the run.

Pick: Eskimos

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders (-14.5, 50.5)

Matchup and trends

Michael Bishop brings more power to Winnipeg’s (2-3) offence and the Bomber defence, led by Siddeeq Shabazz, is in good shape. But the Bombers are still inconsistent putting points up on the board.

Calgary QB Henry Burris has helped the Stampeders (2-3) score the league’s second-highest season point total. The fact that the Bombers have lost their last eight games at Calgary can’t be reassuring to Winnipeg backers.

Pick: Stampeders

Last week: 1-3

Season: 9-11

[G-men]

CFL LONG SHEET

Week 6

Friday, August 7


TORONTO (2 - 3) at MONTREAL (4 - 1) - 8/7/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 4) - 8/7/2009, 10:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-4 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[G-men]

Trend Report

Friday, August 7

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
Toronto is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
Toronto is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto

10:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Saskatchewan is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
British Columbia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home

[G-men]

CFL WRITE-UP

Friday, August 7

Toronto (2-3) @ Montreal (4-1)-- Alouettes lost for first time last week in Edmonton; they're 2-0 at home, winning by 34-13 pts. Eskimos threw for 13.3 yds/attempt last week. Toronto had 12 points, seven turnovers in 13-12 home loss to Winnipeg, their third loss in last four tilts. Argos are -12 in turnovers last four games- they've been outscored 36-8 in the second half of their last three games.

Saskatchewan (3-2) @ BCLions (1-4)-- BC lost season opener 28-24 in Regina (-2), in game where both sides had six turnovers. Lions allowed 28-31-48-30 points in their losses, 22 in only win- they've turned ball over eight times, allowed 439 rushing yards in last two games, games in which they were outscored 40-3 in second half. Riders are 2-0 on road; underdog covered four of their five games.