[G-men]

Getting a game plan for betting the NFL preseason
By DAVID JONES
David Jones has worked in the sports betting industry as an oddsmaker and handicapper.


One-hundred and eighty-eight days. That’s much time will have passed since Super Bowl XLIII when the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans take the field on Sunday in the Hall of Fame game.

While fans tolerate the preseason because of the football drought, sharp bettors cherish it.

Here are few ways to be successful betting the exhibition calendar:

New sheriff in town

Since new head coaches are stepping into losing situations, there is a view that these new leaders will try to establish a winning mentality right out of the gate.

First year coaches went 9-8 against the spread last season and 15-14 in 2007. Obviously the stats aren’t overwhelming but in most cases, new sideline bosses like to win their first game, even if it’s an exhibition.

The chaos theory

Clubs with starting quarterback battles are perceived by many to have some value in the preseason. The idea is that these squads will be more aggressive with their offense to give them the best opportunity to evaluate who will start at the most important position on the field.

The seven squads that had some starting quarterback questions heading into the 2008 preseason went 12-16 ATS.

Numbing numbers

Even trends over multiple seasons can be a little shaky. In 2006-07, unders went 21-9-3 in the first full week of the pre-season (Hall of Fame games included). Last year, the majority of the games went over the total with 10 of the 17 contests yielding 35 or more total points.

The game plan

The preseason is about evaluating personnel while avoiding injuries. The regular season is about winning. So, handicappers must adjust accordingly.

During the regular season, coaches say little in their encounters with the print and broadcast media. They give generic answers about the upcoming game and will avoid giving their foes any bulletin board material to use.

Usually, the status of injured players is the most important topic of these media sessions. However, the coaches rarely add much to the widely available injury reports that are distributed by the league. In the regular season, the best available players will play.

This is not the case in the preseason.

The comments of coaches this time are usually more helpful to handicappers than the predictable quotes from the regular season. Before each preseason game, the head coach will usually inform the media of how much the first, second and third string units will play in the upcoming contest.

There are also some other subtle concepts to consider that are less obvious than new coaches or starting quarterback battles. There are teams that have a returning head coach but are breaking in a new coordinator on offense or defense.

What about teams that have a battle going for the backup quarterback spot? With the established starting QB exiting by halftime in three of the four pre-season games, the teams looking to fill the important backup spot are likely to be more aggressive in the passing game to find a reliable No. 2 signal-caller.

The preseason is bizarro world to the regular season. Last year’s Detroit Lions are the perfect example. They went 4-0 in August and became the first team to ever go 0-16 in the regular season.

[G-men]

College football's best bets laying big points
By DAVID PAYNE

Teams that are used to being big favorites are conveniently good at covering big spreads.

In the last five seasons, the 10 teams most often favored by 20 or more points are 112-78 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

Only one of the 10 teams, LSU, has a losing ATS record when favored by 20 or more. The Tigers are 9-10 ATS as big favorites.

At 14-7 ATS, Louisville has the highest winning percentage as a big favorite. But 13 of those covers came during Bobby Petrino’s tenure. The Cardinals have rarely deserved to be favored period, let alone by 20, under coach Steve Kragthorpe.

Which teams have the goods to lay the wood this season?

Here are five capable candidates:

Texas Christian Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs rolled over lesser opponents last season, going 5-0 ATS as favorites of at least 20 points.

Coach Gary Patterson has his starting quarterback, top rusher and top two receivers back from that team.

TCU is going to put up points against the lackluster defenses of the Mountain West. If the defense continues its opportunistic ways (+13 in turnovers last year), the Horned Frogs will post their fair share of blowouts.

Games to note: vs. SMU, Oct. 3; vs. Colorado State, Oct. 17; at Wyoming, Nov. 21; vs. New Mexico, Nov. 28.

Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes love to punish lesser opponents at home. They’ve covered in 13 of their last 14 home games when favored by more than three touchdowns.

With an elite offensive line, look for Kirk Ferentz’s club to overpower, wear down and put away weaker opponents in the second halves this year.

Games to note: at Northern Iowa, Sept. 5; vs. Arkansas State, Oct. 3; vs. Indiana, Oct. 31.

Penn State Nittany Lions

The Nittany Lions’ recent resurgence has been spurred by an offensive upgrade. Offensive coordinator Galen Hall came over from Florida in 2004 and instantly jumpstarted Joe Pa’s stale attack. PSU has averaged more than 30 points in three of Hall’s four seasons, including a high of 38.9 last season.

With senior quarterback Daryll Clark and leading rusher Evan Royster returning, the Nittany Lions should continue to put up big numbers this season.

They’ve covered in nine of their last 10 games as at least 20-point favorites.

Games to note: vs. Akron, Sept. 5; vs. Temple, Sept. 19; vs. Indiana, Nov. 14.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys from yesteryear had a tendency to play down to the level of their competition. But not recently.

Under coach Mike Gundy, OSU is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 20 points.

With an ultra-explosive offense featuring possibly four high NFL draft picks, the Cowboys have the ability to overwhelm opponents.

Games to note: vs. Rice, Sept 19; at Grambling, Sept. 26.

Nevada Wolf Pack

Coach Chris Ault’s Pistol offense is firing on all cylinders. The Wolf Pack averaged 37.6 points last season, the most in Ault’s five-year tenure.

It’s a fast-paced attack that has the ability to tire out defenses. Quarterback Colin Kapernick is in his third season running the offense and has most of primary weapons back.

The Wolf Pack is 4-1 ATS as 20-point favorites under Ault.

Game to note: at Utah State, Oct. 17.

[G-men]

Georgia Tech 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
By THE PREZ - I am your Financial Advisor - I take this very seriously

Run baby, run. That's the team motto for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

The Jackets ranked fourth nationally in 2008 averaging 273.2 rushing yards per game. This year’s team brings back ACC Offensive Player of the Year Jonathan Dwyer, fellow RB Roddy Jones, who had 214 yards rushing in Tech’s regular-season finale against Georgia last season and QB Josh Nesbitt, who ranked second to Dwyer in rushing yards in 2008.

As deep as that backfield already is, it adds Louisville transfer Anthony Allen. From 2006-07 with the Cardinals, Allen rushed for 1,167 yards and scoring 23 touchdowns. He also holds the single-game school record with 275 yards on the ground.

With a full season under its belts in coach Paul Johnson’s triple-option offense, Tech will be scary on the ground.

Nesbitt will have to throw the ball consistently to keep defenses from putting 10 in the box; the Jackets were fourth from last in passing in Division I last year.

The Georgia Tech defense had some issues last year, but eight starters return on that side of the ball. The ACC Costal title and a BCS bowl berth are the expectations in 2009. For that to become a reality Georgia Tech needs to overcome some large tests on the road.

Here’s Georgia Tech’s 2009 schedule (all times in flux):

September 5 vs. Jacksonville State

September 10 vs. Clemson

September 17 at Miami (FL)

September 26 vs. North Carolina

October 3 at Mississippi State

October 10 at Florida State

October 17 vs. Virginia Tech

October 24 at Virginia

October 31 at Vanderbilt

November 7 vs. Wake Forest

November 14 at Duke

November 28 vs. Georgia

BetUS.com has Georgia Tech’s over/under win total set at 8.5 and I think the over is easy money. Those two visits to the ACC Florida schools will bust the Jackets’ chance at an ACC title.

The Jackets will be favored to win the first two games at home, and they should. That Clemson game will be close.

The up-and-coming Hurricanes will beat Georgia Tech in Miami on Sept. 17. The Canes remember the Jackets embarrassed them last year when UM still had a shot at the ACC title.

That following game against North Carolina should be excellent, but you have to favor the Jackets on their home field.

October will be a chore with no weeks off and four road games. The Jackets will handle Mississippi State – Tech’s first of three games against SEC teams – but will lose in Tallahassee to a Florida State defense that will be quick enough to handle the option.

Then comes the huge battle with Virginia Tech - don't expect a lot of passing in that game. The Hokies might be unbeaten at this point, but the Jackets will get the job done after barely losing at Virginia Tech’s house last year.

The Jackets will close the regular season with five wins in a row, especially after they finally solved Georgia last year in Athens. The Dawgs are rebuilding a bit this year as well.

A 10-2 record and 6-2 in the ACC won’t be enough to reach the ACC title game - Virginia Tech probably will only lose once. But the Jackets will win 10 games for the first time since 1998.

Georgia Tech is +325 to win the ACC Coastal, and while it’s not impossible it’s not likely to happen this year with Virginia Tech loaded. Take the over of 8.5 wins and pass on all your other bets on this team. But watch out next year if the right players come back.

[G-men]

NCAA bans championship from single-game betting states


Delaware may be getting sports wagering, but it will be losing NCAA championships.

The NCAA announced on Thursday it will no longer hold championship tournaments in states that permit betting on single games, the Associated Press reports. Representatives across all NCAA divisions approved the move, adding it applies to “any session of an NCAA championship.”

Delaware plans to open sports betting on Sept. 10 in time for the beginning of the NFL season. It is believed that Delaware bettors will also be able to wager on Major League Baseball and college football.

Delaware is one of four states exempted from the 1992 federal ban on sports betting. The eastern state tried legalized sports wagering in 1976, but quickly dissolved the plan after losing major money because of poorly set lines.

[G-men]

Federal judge denies block on Delaware sports betting


Delaware has officially won the first round in its battle against pro sports leagues and the NCAA to legalize sports betting after a request to block Delaware’s re-opening of sports betting from the NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL and NCAA was denied by a federal judge Wednesday night.

The leagues attempted to prevent legalized sports betting in Delaware until its legal challenge is resolved. But Chief District Judge Gregory Sleet rejected the block attempt stating that the leagues had not proven that such an “extraordinary remedy” was necessary.

“The court is not convinced that the plaintiffs will likely succeed on the merits in this case,” Sleet said.

He went even further saying the leagues' position was "ironic" seeing how a number of sport teams have sponsorship deals with casinos.

Unless the leagues decide to appeal Sleet’s ruling, sports betting in Delaware could open in time for the start of the NFL season.

"The state is moving full speed ahead with our plans to implement a sports lottery by the start of the NFL season," Michael Barlow, lead counsel for Delaware Gov. Jack Markell's office, said in a statement. "The Delaware Supreme Court gave us permission to initiate a sports lottery and today's decision reaffirms that we can move forward."

Delaware plans to open sports betting on Sept. 10 in time for the beginning of the NFL season. It is believed that Delaware bettors will also be able to wager on Major League Baseball and college football.

If there is no appeal, the leagues will meet Delaware in trial on Dec. 7 where plaintiffs will attempt to prove that the state’s sports betting plan violates a federal ban on sports wagering.

Delaware is one of four states exempted from the 1992 federal ban on sports betting. The eastern state tried legalized sports wagering in 1976, but quickly dissolved the plan after losing major money because of poorly set lines.

It isn’t clear yet who will be setting the lines for Delaware, but it does appear likely that bettors will be able to bet on single games as opposed to a parlay system.

While the leagues, particularly the NFL, were opposed to Delaware's sports betting plan from the get-go, the tipping point came when the state moved toward single-game wagering rather than the parlay system it used in 1976.

The leagues argue winning single game bets is based on skill rather than chance. This should be the key issue when the case goes to trial.

[jackpot269]

nice info, thanks