[G-men]

Craig Davis

Thursday's Lineup

30 DIME ---- YANKEES (With Chamberlain) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RED SOX (With Smoltz)

[LUCKYME1]

WRITTE UP
One and only play of the day on the NY Yankees on the run line to beat the Red Sox, and beat them good. I'm fully aware that the Red Sox have owned the Yankees this year and have won the last nine meetings with the Bronx Bombers, but let's be real... this can't continue... especially at Yankee Stadium where New York is a sizzling 35-17. Enough is enough, and I believe New York's best chance to win a game in this series happens tonight with Joba Chamberlain on the hill.

The guy has been flat out 'on fire' recently, posting a 3-0 record, 0.83 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts and has allowed just 8 hits in his last 21 2/3 innings pitched. His season record is 7-2 and the team is 14-6 in the 20 games he has started. Just listen to the run support he gets when he pitches... 6, 8, 2, 6, 10, 8, and 8 in his last 7 starts. What's more, his pitches per inning has gone down recently allowing him to go deeper into games while keeping his bullpen from having to come in earlier than manager Joe Girardi would like. In four starts and four relief appearances vs. Boston, Chamberlain has a respectable 2-1 record with a 3.49 ERA, striking out 33 in 28 innings of work. Talk about emotional... Joba has been looking forward to this game since the last time they walked off the field, losing yet another game to Boston.

The Sox will counter with John Smoltz and, to be honest, he's probably one or two more horrid starts away from being demoted to the bullpen or released altogether. His ERA for the season is 7.12 and over his last three outings... it balloons to 9.18. Smoltzy hasn't allowed less than five earned runs in any of his last three starts, and hasn't given the Sox a quality start since July 11 vs. Kansas City. In seven starts this year, Smoltz has allowed at least five earned runs in five of them while the other two were high scoring affairs in which the Red Sox split. Smoltz's career ERA vs. the Yankees is 4.50 in two starts despite not having a decision in either game.

Bottom line... the Yankees are overdue for a big win against their arch-rival and tonight might be the best chance to get one with their hottest pitcher on the hill. Not only will the Yankees win, they win by at least four tonight at home to open up the series the right way.