Getting a game plan for betting the NFL preseason
By DAVID JONES
David Jones has worked in the sports betting industry as an oddsmaker and handicapper.
One-hundred and eighty-eight days. That’s much time will have passed since Super Bowl XLIII when the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans take the field on Sunday in the Hall of Fame game.
While fans tolerate the preseason because of the football drought, sharp bettors cherish it.
Here are few ways to be successful betting the exhibition calendar:
New sheriff in town
Since new head coaches are stepping into losing situations, there is a view that these new leaders will try to establish a winning mentality right out of the gate.
First year coaches went 9-8 against the spread last season and 15-14 in 2007. Obviously the stats aren’t overwhelming but in most cases, new sideline bosses like to win their first game, even if it’s an exhibition.
The chaos theory
Clubs with starting quarterback battles are perceived by many to have some value in the preseason. The idea is that these squads will be more aggressive with their offense to give them the best opportunity to evaluate who will start at the most important position on the field.
The seven squads that had some starting quarterback questions heading into the 2008 preseason went 12-16 ATS.
Numbing numbers
Even trends over multiple seasons can be a little shaky. In 2006-07, unders went 21-9-3 in the first full week of the pre-season (Hall of Fame games included). Last year, the majority of the games went over the total with 10 of the 17 contests yielding 35 or more total points.
The game plan
The preseason is about evaluating personnel while avoiding injuries. The regular season is about winning. So, handicappers must adjust accordingly.
During the regular season, coaches say little in their encounters with the print and broadcast media. They give generic answers about the upcoming game and will avoid giving their foes any bulletin board material to use.
Usually, the status of injured players is the most important topic of these media sessions. However, the coaches rarely add much to the widely available injury reports that are distributed by the league. In the regular season, the best available players will play.
This is not the case in the preseason.
The comments of coaches this time are usually more helpful to handicappers than the predictable quotes from the regular season. Before each preseason game, the head coach will usually inform the media of how much the first, second and third string units will play in the upcoming contest.
There are also some other subtle concepts to consider that are less obvious than new coaches or starting quarterback battles. There are teams that have a returning head coach but are breaking in a new coordinator on offense or defense.
What about teams that have a battle going for the backup quarterback spot? With the established starting QB exiting by halftime in three of the four pre-season games, the teams looking to fill the important backup spot are likely to be more aggressive in the passing game to find a reliable No. 2 signal-caller.
The preseason is bizarro world to the regular season. Last year’s Detroit Lions are the perfect example. They went 4-0 in August and became the first team to ever go 0-16 in the regular season.
Minny All-Pro D-tackles win ruling, expected to start season
Minnesota defensive lineman Kevin and Pat Williams are expected to start the season on the field for the Vikings. Hennepin County Judge Gary Larson paused state court proceedings in the case on Wednesday, pending a decision from a federal court, the Associated Press reports.
Larson added a ruling before the conclusion of the upcoming NFL season is unlikely, but the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals will hear arguments Aug. 18 in St. Paul.
This is a huge victory for the duo, which comprise the heart of a promising defense on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The Vikings are listed at +2400 to win the Super Bowl at betED.com. They are an early, 3-point favorite over Cleveland for the season opener on Sept. 13, a game the lineman are expected to play in.
Both defensive tackles tested positive for a banned diuretic that can mask the presence of steroids last summer, but have been fighting a four-game suspension levied by the NFL.
The Arena Football League is on its deathbed, with a league source telling TV partner and equity owner ESPN that it was "suspending operations indefinitely," with an official announcement likely to come that the indoor league will fold.
Known for its small fields, pass-happy offenses and high-scoring games, the AFL gave a jump-start to the career of quarterback Kurt Warner, who went on to win NFL MVP and a Super Bowl.
The AFL lasted 22 years but suspended play for the 2009 season due to financial reasons. There was optimism among some owners that the league could return in 2010, but no plan materialized.
The Philadelphia Soul, partially owned by rock star Jon Bon Jovi, won the final ArenaBowl in 2008. Two days before that game, AFL commissioner David Baker resigned and was never replaced. The league's web site has not been updated since April, when the Los Angeles Avengers ceased operations.
College football's best bets laying big points
By DAVID PAYNE
Teams that are used to being big favorites are conveniently good at covering big spreads.
In the last five seasons, the 10 teams most often favored by 20 or more points are 112-78 against the spread (ATS) in those games.
Only one of the 10 teams, LSU, has a losing ATS record when favored by 20 or more. The Tigers are 9-10 ATS as big favorites.
At 14-7 ATS, Louisville has the highest winning percentage as a big favorite. But 13 of those covers came during Bobby Petrino’s tenure. The Cardinals have rarely deserved to be favored period, let alone by 20, under coach Steve Kragthorpe.
Which teams have the goods to lay the wood this season?
Here are five capable candidates:
Texas Christian Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs rolled over lesser opponents last season, going 5-0 ATS as favorites of at least 20 points.
Coach Gary Patterson has his starting quarterback, top rusher and top two receivers back from that team.
TCU is going to put up points against the lackluster defenses of the Mountain West. If the defense continues its opportunistic ways (+13 in turnovers last year), the Horned Frogs will post their fair share of blowouts.
Games to note: vs. SMU, Oct. 3; vs. Colorado State, Oct. 17; at Wyoming, Nov. 21; vs. New Mexico, Nov. 28.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes love to punish lesser opponents at home. They’ve covered in 13 of their last 14 home games when favored by more than three touchdowns.
With an elite offensive line, look for Kirk Ferentz’s club to overpower, wear down and put away weaker opponents in the second halves this year.
Games to note: at Northern Iowa, Sept. 5; vs. Arkansas State, Oct. 3; vs. Indiana, Oct. 31.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions’ recent resurgence has been spurred by an offensive upgrade. Offensive coordinator Galen Hall came over from Florida in 2004 and instantly jumpstarted Joe Pa’s stale attack. PSU has averaged more than 30 points in three of Hall’s four seasons, including a high of 38.9 last season.
With senior quarterback Daryll Clark and leading rusher Evan Royster returning, the Nittany Lions should continue to put up big numbers this season.
They’ve covered in nine of their last 10 games as at least 20-point favorites.
Games to note: vs. Akron, Sept. 5; vs. Temple, Sept. 19; vs. Indiana, Nov. 14.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys from yesteryear had a tendency to play down to the level of their competition. But not recently.
Under coach Mike Gundy, OSU is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 20 points.
With an ultra-explosive offense featuring possibly four high NFL draft picks, the Cowboys have the ability to overwhelm opponents.
Games to note: vs. Rice, Sept 19; at Grambling, Sept. 26.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Coach Chris Ault’s Pistol offense is firing on all cylinders. The Wolf Pack averaged 37.6 points last season, the most in Ault’s five-year tenure.
It’s a fast-paced attack that has the ability to tire out defenses. Quarterback Colin Kapernick is in his third season running the offense and has most of primary weapons back.
The Wolf Pack is 4-1 ATS as 20-point favorites under Ault.
Georgia's 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
By THE PREZ - I am your Financial Advisor - I take this very seriously
Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team in the country last year and everything seemed in place for the Dawgs to be in the national title race: a future NFL franchise QB in Matthew Stafford, an All-American-caliber running back in Knowshon Moreno and a super-freshman WR in A.J. Green.
But injuries played a huge role in Georgia’s disappointing season. The Dawgs lost three games and their defense was shredded in all three, allowing 41 points to Alabama, 49 points to Florida and 45 to Georgia Tech. The unit also allowed 38 points against Kentucky and LSU.
A 24-12 win over Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl assured Georgia double-digit wins for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. But it also was the end of Stafford’s and Moreno’s career as both headed off to the NFL draft. And that probably means a bit of rebuilding this year.
Georgia finished last season at No. 16 in the AP poll and that’s about where many experts have them pegged in 2009 preseason polls. The Dawgs return 13 total starters.
Here’s Georgia’s 2009 schedule (all times still in flux):
September 5 at Oklahoma State
September 12 vs. South Carolina
September 19 at Arkansas
September 26 vs. Arizona State
October 3 vs. LSU
October 10 at Tennessee
October 17 at Vanderbilt
October 31 vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
November 7 vs. Tennessee Tech
November 14 vs. Auburn
November 21 vs. Kentucky
November 28 at Georgia Tech
Georgia’s over/under regular-season wins this year is 8.5 and I think the Dawgs fall just under that number (remember, any bowl wins don’t count). Fifth-year senior Joe Cox, he of the 33 career passes, takes over for Stafford. Caleb King should get most of the carries in place of Moreno, and he has a high ceiling. The good news is that eight guys who have started games on the offensive line are back this year, so that unit should be a source of strength a year after it was a soft spot.
The schedule is brutal, so winning more than eight games seems unlikely.
Kudos to Georgia for opening with such a tough game. The Cowboys will be a preseason top-10 team with one of the best offenses in the country. Can’t imagine this revamped UGA team winning in Stillwater.
There really isn’t a gimme game in all of September, although I think Georgia does finish the month 3-1.
LSU should be a much better team this year. The Tigers allowed 52 points in a home loss to Georgia last year. But Georgia has had LSU’s number of late, winning three in a row in the series. Call it a close win for the Dawgs.
But that Tennessee game a week later will be a bit of a trap. The Vols will get their first big win under Lane Kiffin. Vandy should then pose few problems and Georgia gets two weeks to prepare for its showdown with Florida.
The Gators had no trouble in this game last year and won’t again – there’s just too much talent on that team. UF will probably clinch the SEC East in this game.
Look for Georgia to get back on track with three straight home wins to start November. The Yellow Jackets in the season finale have arguably the best running attack in the nation. They gouged Georgia for 409 yards rushing last year and get the game in Atlanta in 2009.
That’s loss No. 4 for the Dawgs, which means a 10-win season won’t be in the cards this year.
Georgia is +500 at BetUS.com to win the SEC East and +800 to win the SEC title. Putting money down there is just throwing it away, especially with the Gators in the same division.
Football 8/6
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