30 DIME: YANKEES (Chamberlain) on the run line (-1 1/2 runs) over Red Sox (Smoltz)
NOTE: Both Joba Chamberlain (New York) and John Smoltz (Boston) must start this game or this play is VOID!
Yankees (-1½ runs)
It’s time. It’s time for the New York Yankees to finally get the best of their hated rivals – and do so in blowout fashion!
As I’m sure you know by now, Boston has won all eight meetings in this rivalry this season and nine in a row dating to last September. However, it must be noted that seven of those nine wins came at Fenway Park (this is just the third meeting of the season at new Yankee Stadium). It also must be noted that these squads haven’t met in nearly two months, and in the interim, the Yankees have been playing some of the best baseball in the league.
In fact, after getting swept in Boston from June 9-11 (the final two losses being by a single runs), New York went on to lose six of its next 10 games. But since then, the Bronx Bombers are 27-10 overall, including 14-3 at home, and 10 of those 14 home victories were by multiple runs. One of the reasons for the Yankees’ turnaround? The pitching of Joba Chamberlain.
Going back to June 7, Chamberlain has made 10 starts and New York has won eight of them, with the right-hander giving up three earned runs or fewer in nine of the 10 games. Most recently, Chamberlain has been virtually unhittable, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts (two runs allowed on eight hits while striking out 19 in 21 2/3 innings. During this 10-start stretch, the Yankees are 6-1 behind Chamberlain at home (4-0 last four), and his home ERA is 3.72 over those seven games. That might not look that great, but trust me – with the way the ball flies out of new Yankee Stadium, that 3.72 ERA looks like 2.72.
Granted, Chamberlain hasn’t been all that sharp in his two starts against Boston this year, giving up six runs (five earned) on 15 hits in 11 innings. However, when he faced the Sox at home on May 5, 12 of the 17 outs he recorded were via strikeout – that should tell you how dominant his stuff can be! In fact, in four career starts against Boston, Chamberlain has notched 28 strikeouts (vs. 11 walks) in 24 innings, with the Yankees going 2-2.
Of course, Chamberlain isn’t the only guy who will be on the mound tonight. His counterpart is the washed-up John Smoltz. The right-hander has been a complete mess since joining Boston’s rotation in June, going 2-4 with a 7.12 ERA in seven starts. In his last three outings, he allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 16 2/3 innings (9.18 ERA), and he served up six home runs in those three games. That last stat is very disturbing considering Smoltz is facing the team that’s hit the second most home runs this year in a ballpark that’s been a launching pad since the day it opened.
Bottom line: As far as I’m concerned, you can totally disregard Boston’s 9-0 run against the Yankees. Why? Because these are two completely different clubs than they were when they last met two months ago. Also, the Red Sox’s two best pitchers – Jon Lester and Josh Beckett – started five of Boston’s eight wins over New York this season. Finally, after losing in Tampa Bay the last two days, the Red Sox are now just 2-9 in their last 11 games against clubs near or above .500 (Tampa Bay, Texas, Toronto and Seattle). Put it another way, 12 of their last 13 wins have come against Baltimore, Kansas City and Oakland – the three last-place teams in the American League who are a combined 54 games under .500!
Throw in the fact that the Yankees are on runs of 17-4 against right-handed starters, 7-1 against A.L. East foes and 14-3 in Chamberlain’s last 17 home starts, and I’m ALL OVER the Bombers tonight. Lay the 1½ runs and watch the Yanks pummel Smoltz and give their fans a blowout win of at least four runs!
Bad call with Wednesday’s free play on the Blue Jays. Still, I’m 19-10 with my last 29 freebies, and I’ll get back to my winning ways Thursday by backing the Braves at the Dodgers.
First off, Los Angeles is struggling, losing eight of its last 13 games (2-4 at home). The slump isn’t all that surprising, as the Dodgers – as well as they’ve played all season – have been way overdue for a prolonged downturn.
Tonight, they face former teammate Derek Lowe for the second time in five days. On Saturday in Atlanta, Lowe held the Dodgers to three runs on five hits over six innings, earning a 4-3 victory. No doubt, Lowe will be even more pumped up tonight, returning to the stadium he called home for four seasons from 2005-2008. Last year, Lowe was incredible at Dodger Stadium, going 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA and a 0.93 ERA in 17 starts, and for his career, Lowe has 33 wins and a 3.21 ERA in Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, as was the case on Saturday in Atlanta, Lowe will be matched up against Randy Wolf. Wolf didn’t pitch horribly in that game, allowing three runs, nine hits and two walks and getting a no-decision. Still, his career numbers against the Braves are not pretty (4-12, 5.32 ERA in 26 games, including 24 starts).
Finally, the Braves have won five straight games in back of Lowe, with the right-hander going 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over this stretch, pitching exactly seven innings in all five games. By comparison, L.A. is just 3-5 in Wolf’s last eight starts. Take the value with what is sure to be an inspired Lowe in this contest.
Jeff Benton 8/6
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