Getting a game plan for betting the NFL preseason
By DAVID JONES
David Jones has worked in the sports betting industry as an oddsmaker and handicapper.
One-hundred and eighty-eight days. That’s much time will have passed since Super Bowl XLIII when the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans take the field on Sunday in the Hall of Fame game.
While fans tolerate the preseason because of the football drought, sharp bettors cherish it.
Here are few ways to be successful betting the exhibition calendar:
New sheriff in town
Since new head coaches are stepping into losing situations, there is a view that these new leaders will try to establish a winning mentality right out of the gate.
First year coaches went 9-8 against the spread last season and 15-14 in 2007. Obviously the stats aren’t overwhelming but in most cases, new sideline bosses like to win their first game, even if it’s an exhibition.
The chaos theory
Clubs with starting quarterback battles are perceived by many to have some value in the preseason. The idea is that these squads will be more aggressive with their offense to give them the best opportunity to evaluate who will start at the most important position on the field.
The seven squads that had some starting quarterback questions heading into the 2008 preseason went 12-16 ATS.
Numbing numbers
Even trends over multiple seasons can be a little shaky. In 2006-07, unders went 21-9-3 in the first full week of the pre-season (Hall of Fame games included). Last year, the majority of the games went over the total with 10 of the 17 contests yielding 35 or more total points.
The game plan
The preseason is about evaluating personnel while avoiding injuries. The regular season is about winning. So, handicappers must adjust accordingly.
During the regular season, coaches say little in their encounters with the print and broadcast media. They give generic answers about the upcoming game and will avoid giving their foes any bulletin board material to use.
Usually, the status of injured players is the most important topic of these media sessions. However, the coaches rarely add much to the widely available injury reports that are distributed by the league. In the regular season, the best available players will play.
This is not the case in the preseason.
The comments of coaches this time are usually more helpful to handicappers than the predictable quotes from the regular season. Before each preseason game, the head coach will usually inform the media of how much the first, second and third string units will play in the upcoming contest.
There are also some other subtle concepts to consider that are less obvious than new coaches or starting quarterback battles. There are teams that have a returning head coach but are breaking in a new coordinator on offense or defense.
What about teams that have a battle going for the backup quarterback spot? With the established starting QB exiting by halftime in three of the four pre-season games, the teams looking to fill the important backup spot are likely to be more aggressive in the passing game to find a reliable No. 2 signal-caller.
The preseason is bizarro world to the regular season. Last year’s Detroit Lions are the perfect example. They went 4-0 in August and became the first team to ever go 0-16 in the regular season.
Georgia's 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
By THE PREZ - I am your Financial Advisor - I take this very seriously
Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team in the country last year and everything seemed in place for the Dawgs to be in the national title race: a future NFL franchise QB in Matthew Stafford, an All-American-caliber running back in Knowshon Moreno and a super-freshman WR in A.J. Green.
But injuries played a huge role in Georgia’s disappointing season. The Dawgs lost three games and their defense was shredded in all three, allowing 41 points to Alabama, 49 points to Florida and 45 to Georgia Tech. The unit also allowed 38 points against Kentucky and LSU.
A 24-12 win over Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl assured Georgia double-digit wins for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. But it also was the end of Stafford’s and Moreno’s career as both headed off to the NFL draft. And that probably means a bit of rebuilding this year.
Georgia finished last season at No. 16 in the AP poll and that’s about where many experts have them pegged in 2009 preseason polls. The Dawgs return 13 total starters.
Here’s Georgia’s 2009 schedule (all times still in flux):
September 5 at Oklahoma State
September 12 vs. South Carolina
September 19 at Arkansas
September 26 vs. Arizona State
October 3 vs. LSU
October 10 at Tennessee
October 17 at Vanderbilt
October 31 vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
November 7 vs. Tennessee Tech
November 14 vs. Auburn
November 21 vs. Kentucky
November 28 at Georgia Tech
Georgia’s over/under regular-season wins this year is 8.5 and I think the Dawgs fall just under that number (remember, any bowl wins don’t count). Fifth-year senior Joe Cox, he of the 33 career passes, takes over for Stafford. Caleb King should get most of the carries in place of Moreno, and he has a high ceiling. The good news is that eight guys who have started games on the offensive line are back this year, so that unit should be a source of strength a year after it was a soft spot.
The schedule is brutal, so winning more than eight games seems unlikely.
Kudos to Georgia for opening with such a tough game. The Cowboys will be a preseason top-10 team with one of the best offenses in the country. Can’t imagine this revamped UGA team winning in Stillwater.
There really isn’t a gimme game in all of September, although I think Georgia does finish the month 3-1.
LSU should be a much better team this year. The Tigers allowed 52 points in a home loss to Georgia last year. But Georgia has had LSU’s number of late, winning three in a row in the series. Call it a close win for the Dawgs.
But that Tennessee game a week later will be a bit of a trap. The Vols will get their first big win under Lane Kiffin. Vandy should then pose few problems and Georgia gets two weeks to prepare for its showdown with Florida.
The Gators had no trouble in this game last year and won’t again – there’s just too much talent on that team. UF will probably clinch the SEC East in this game.
Look for Georgia to get back on track with three straight home wins to start November. The Yellow Jackets in the season finale have arguably the best running attack in the nation. They gouged Georgia for 409 yards rushing last year and get the game in Atlanta in 2009.
That’s loss No. 4 for the Dawgs, which means a 10-win season won’t be in the cards this year.
Georgia is +500 at BetUS.com to win the SEC East and +800 to win the SEC title. Putting money down there is just throwing it away, especially with the Gators in the same division.
The Arena Football League is on its deathbed, with a league source telling TV partner and equity owner ESPN that it was "suspending operations indefinitely," with an official announcement likely to come that the indoor league will fold.
Known for its small fields, pass-happy offenses and high-scoring games, the AFL gave a jump-start to the career of quarterback Kurt Warner, who went on to win NFL MVP and a Super Bowl.
The AFL lasted 22 years but suspended play for the 2009 season due to financial reasons. There was optimism among some owners that the league could return in 2010, but no plan materialized.
The Philadelphia Soul, partially owned by rock star Jon Bon Jovi, won the final ArenaBowl in 2008. Two days before that game, AFL commissioner David Baker resigned and was never replaced. The league's web site has not been updated since April, when the Los Angeles Avengers ceased operations.
Football 8/5
Reply With Quote