A battle of southpaws is on tap at Citizens Bank Park, as the Rockies’ Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA) is scheduled to match up against J.A. Happ (7-2, 2.97) and the Phillies in the middle game of a three-game series.
The Rockies pounded out an 8-3 victory on Tuesday and they’ve now won five in a row – all by multiple runs – after starting their road trip with three straight losses to the Mets by the combined score of 18-3. Colorado, which leads the N.L. Wild-Card race, is on surges of 39-15 overall, 21-8 on the road and 15-6 against teams with a winning record. However, the Rockies have dropped four of six to lefty starters.
Philadelphia has lost three in a row and five of its last six. Still, the defending champs are on positive streaks of 20-8 overall, 14-4 at home, 6-0 in the second game of a series, 6-2 versus left-handed starters and 15-6 when facing lefties at home. On the downside, the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six against the N.L. West and 1-5 in their last six on Wednesday.
The Rockies’ victory Tuesday was a rare one, as the Phillies had taken seven of the previous eight series clashes dating to the start of last season.
Colorado has won seven straight games behind De La Rosa overall and four straight on the road, and the lefty has delivered a quality start in his last six trips to the mound, posting a sensational 2.20 ERA during this stretch. On Thursday at the Mets, De La Rosa gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 victory, improving to 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA in nine road starts (2-0, 2.92 ERA last two on the road).
Happ is coming off consecutive defeats to the Cardinals (8-1 at home) and DBacks (4-0 on the road), giving up a combined seven runs on 13 hits in 12 innings. Those were his first two losses of the season and his first defeats since losing his major-league debut on June 30, 2007. Including the five-run, six-inning blowout against St. Louis, Happ is 3-1 with a 4.47 ERA in 13 appearances (six starts) at Citizens Bank this year.
De La Rosa has faced the Phillies five times (three starts) and is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA, including an 8-4 home loss on April 11 when he gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Happ’s history against Colorado is limited to one relief appearance, and he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings.
The over is 3-1 in De La Rosa’s last four starts overall and 3-0 in his three career starts against Philadelphia. However, with Happ on the hill, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 13-3-1 overall (6-0 last six) and 7-2 at home (3-0 last three).
These clubs have been involved in shootouts lately, as the “over” is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings overall and 11-4-1 in the last 16 clashes in Philadelphia (playoffs included). The “over” is also 5-1 in the Phillies’ last five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (62-43) at Tampa Bay (59-48)
The Red Sox and Rays conclude a brief two-game series at Tropicana Field, with Boston sending veteran Brad Penny (7-5, 5.07 ERA) to the hill opposite Tampa Bay phenom David Price (4-4, 5.10).
In Tuesday’s series opener, slugger Evan Longoria blasted a two-run homer – his second of the game – with two outs in the bottom 13th inning to lift Tampa Bay to a 4-2 victory. The Rays have followed a 1-3 slump by taking four of their last five (all at home), and they’re on further upticks of 92-38 at Tropicana Field going back to 2008 and 41-15 in the second game of a series.
Not only did Boston have its four-game winning streak halted in brutal fashion last night, but its offense was held down after averaging 8.3 runs in its previous seven games. Still the Red Sox remain on runs of 19-8 against A.L. East rivals, 6-2 on Wednesday and 12-5 in the second game of a series, but they’ve now lost 28 of their last 40 games played on artificial turf.
Tampa Bay holds a 7-4 lead in the season series with Boston, though the teams have alternated wins and losses in the last seven contests. Going back to last September – and including the A.L. Championship Series between the clubs – the Red Sox have lost eight of their last 11 at Tropicana Field, going 1-4 this year.
The Red Sox are 1-5 in Penny’s last six starts, including Wednesday’s 8-6 home loss to the A’s in which the right-hander surrendered seven runs, seven hits and four walks in five innings. Penny is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 2-3 with a 5.51 ERA in nine road outings this season, with the Red Sox going 3-6.
Penny faced the Rays twice in a five-day span in early May, giving up three runs in six innings of a 5-3 road loss, then allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-3 home victory. He’s 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA in six appearances (five starts) versus Tampa Bay.
Price is coming off one of his better outings of the season, as he limited the Royals to a run on five hits over seven innings en route to an 8-2 home victory. Price has given up a single run in each of his last three home starts, going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. For the season, he’s 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in six home starts this year, with Tampa winning five of those contests.
Tonight marks Price’s first career start against the Red Sox. However, the rookie lefty got the final out for Tampa Bay in Game 7 of the ALCS against Boston last year and ended up pitching 2 1/3 hitless innings in that series.
Boston is on “under” runs of 8-2 on the road, 7-2-1 against the A.L. East, 6-2 against left-handed starters, 8-3 with Penny on the mound, 5-2 with Penny working on the road and 4-0 when Penny faces divisional foes. Similarly, Tampa Bay is riding “under” streaks of 39-17-2 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 26-8-2 versus right-handed starters, 5-1 on Wednesday, 12-3 in divisional play and 14-3 against winning teams. Finally, the under is 8-4-1 in the last 13 meetings in this rivalry.
Can we just go ahead and call 2009 a lost season for the Mets?
Barring a miraculous hot streak over its final 56 games, New York will be watching the postseason from home for a third straight season.
Injuries to the everyday lineup as well as the starting rotation and bullpen are the chief culprits for this season’s disappointing showing.
And while there remains hope that All-Stars Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran will return sometime this month, you have to question the three core players’ motivation to get back.
The atmosphere in the Cards' locker room is much more optimistic. The club is humming along in the NL Central, and its newest acquisitions (LF Matt Holiday and 2B Mark DeRosa) are loving life in St. Louis.
Pick: Cards
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-126, 9.5)
For those of you who watched the Rays’ 10-4 win over the Royals, you may have gotten a sneak peek at Tampa Bay’s new batting order.
Manager Joe Maddon gave leadoff man B.J. Upton and designated hitter Pat Burrell the day off Monday.
Maddon, instead, threw shortstop Jason Bartlett into the No. 1 hole and let Willy Aybar take his cuts at DH. Both players were key contributors in the victory.
Maddon was noncommittal on whether the moves would become permanent, but there’s reason to think they will. Aybar has three more homers than Burrell in 71 fewer at-bats, while Upton’s on-base percentage has dropped to a puke-invoking .318.
Expect the Rays to take this game while the Red Sox daydream about the following day’s contest versus the Yankees.
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Jorge De La Rosa (Colorado Rockies)
No member of the Rockies has benefited more from the midseason managerial change to Jim Tracy than De La Rosa.
The lefthander is 9-2 in 11 starts since Tracy took over in late May. He has won his last seven outings, working at least 5 2-3 innings in all of them while allowing no more than three earned runs in any of them.
"He's dealing with adversity a lot better," Tracy told the team's web site. "He's not overthrowing the ball, not rushing, he can get his pitches in the strike zone. When he does that with the stuff that he has, he's a very tough guy."
During his unbeaten streak, De La Rosa has a 2.70 ERA despite making five starts in hitter-happy Coors Field. One reason for De La Rosa's prolonged success has been his ability to limit the long ball. He has given up just three homers in his last 46 2-3 innings as a starter after allowing four in his previous 15 innings.
Rich Harden (Chicago Cubs)
The right-hander is in his best stretch of the season, even though his win-loss record may not reflect it.
In his last four starts, Harden is 2-0 with a pair of no-decisions in which the Cubs managed just three runs. He has gone four straight starts without allowing three runs for the first time this season.
There's more. In addition to a 1.50 ERA, Harden has allowed just 18 hits and walks while striking out 32 in 24 innings, including a season-high 11 in just five frames in his last outing.
Among pitchers with at least 90 innings, Harden is second in the NL in strikeout ratio, averaging 10.56 per nine innings.
Returning
Joe Martinez (San Francisco Giants)
The rookie righty will face Houston in his first major league start. He pitched twice in relief in April but took a line drive to the forehead off the bat of Milwaukee's Mike Cameron. He suffered a concussion, three hairline skull fractures, internal bleeding and a black eye.
Martinez underwent multiple CAT scans and was hospitalized for several days. More than a week after the incident, he still had no memory of it.
After a period of inactivity and eight rehab starts at three different levels of the minor leagues, Martinez is back in the majors with the Giants still searching for rotation consistency behind Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.
Martinez was 0-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 37 2-3 minor league innings. He was 10-10 with a 2.49 ERA for Double-A Connecticut in 2008.
Kyle Davies (Kansas City Royals)
Davies has not pitched since June 19, after getting sent to the minor leagues because a prolonged stretch of poor outings. Davies is taking the rotation spot of Sidney Ponson, who was designated for assignment.
In his last seven starts before his demotion, Davies was 1-6 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP (walks + hits per inning). He allowed eight homers in that stretch, and his only win came in a contest where he pitched the minimum five innings.
In eight starts at Triple-A Omaha, Davies was 4-2 with a 2.14 ERA. He was sent to the minors to work on command of his fastball.
"We still want to see it be better," Royals manager Trey Hillman told the team's web site. "It's just time to get him back up here and ride it out, get him back in the rotation and, hopefully, he performs well."
Slumping
Sergio Mitre (New York Yankees)
Take a good look at the journeyman right-hander filling the fifth spot in the rotation. He is getting worse with every outing, which is not a good sign for a team already monitoring Joba Chamberlain's innings.
In Mitre's first start, he worked his way through 5 2-3 innings to get a win. In his next start, he gave up four runs and nine hits in just five innings but received no decision. In his last outing, he was roughed up for five runs and seven hits in three innings and took the loss.
The innings are shortening, the runs are growing and the price on Mitre is shrinking. Those are telltale signs of a slumping pitcher.
Thursday afternoon is usually the getaway day in baseball, but Wednesday features a handful of games with teams that are escaping town. The night slate does highlight several matchups with key playoff implications, specifically in the American League.
Red Sox at Rays (7:05 PM EST)
An odd August series concludes at Tropicana Field, as the Rays and Red Sox wrap up a quick two-game set. The Rays are trying to make up ground on both Boston and New York in the AL East, as it's looking more and more that the team that finishes second in the division will win the Wild Card.
David Price (4-4, 5.10 ERA) sealed Boston's fate in the ALCS last season, recording the final out of the Game 7 victory at home. This will be Price's first start against the Sox, as the young lefty is still trying to find consistency in his initial season as a starter. Price has been solid at home, compiling a 4-1 mark, while allowing three earned runs in his last three home starts. Price's problem comes when the sun goes down. The Rays southpaw is just 1-4 with an ERA of 6.48 at night this season, while Tampa Bay is 2-5 in his seven night outings.
Brad Penny (7-5, 5.07 ERA) has incurred plenty of problems away from Fenway Park, as the Red Sox are 3-6 in his nine road starts. Penny was touched up by a non-descript Oakland squad his last time out, allowing seven earned runs in five innings of work. Penny has delivered a pair of quality starts against the Rays this season, going 1-1.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Rays as a $1.15 home favorite, with the total listed at 10.
Rockies at Phillies (7:05 PM EST)
A pair of left-handers look to keep up their winning ways, as Colorado and Philadelphia meet up for the second game of their three-game set. The Phillies look to rebound after the Rockies pounded Philadelphia on Tuesday, 8-3.
J.A. Happ (7-2, 2.97 ERA) has dropped two straight outings after winning his first five decisions as a starter. The Phillies southpaw was roughed up by the Cardinals, but delivered a quality start in a loss at Arizona. The 'under' has hit in Happ's last six starts, as seven or less combined runs have been scored five times in this span. The Phillies are 1-3 in Happ's last four starts as a home favorite.
Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA) has been one of the hotter pitchers in baseball over the last six weeks. The Rockies are 7-0 in De La Rosa's last seven starts, while the lefty has delivered a quality start in six straight appearances. One criticism of De La Rosa's hot run may be the competition he's faced, seeing five teams out of contention (Nationals, Diamondbacks, Mets, A's, and Pirates). De La Rosa's road numbers have been strong, at 4-2, with the Rockies winning six of his nine away starts.
The Phillies are a $1.40 home 'chalk,' with the total set at 9 ½, according to LVSC.
Angels at White Sox (8:10 PM EST)
The Halos are by far the hottest team in baseball, winning 17 of 21, despite Tuesday's 5-4 loss to the White Sox. Los Angeles is doing this without its top two power threats, Vladmir Guerrero and Torii Hunter. Since Hunter has been out of the lineup with a groin injury, the Angels have nailed 13 straight 'overs,' to go along with an 11-3 mark.
Sean O'Sullivan (3-0, 3.72 ERA) looks to keep up his winning ways, as the righty makes his first start since July 21 against Kansas City. The Angels have won comfortably in O'Sullivan's five starts, picking up four victories by at least three runs.
Gavin Floyd (8-6, 4.07 ERA) tries to follow up a 10-strikeout effort against the Yankees, allowing only four hits in seven innings of a 3-2 victory. The Sox have won each of Floyd's last eight home starts, all quality outings. The 'under' has been a strong play when Floyd takes the U.S. Cellular Field mound, hitting in seven of ten tries. Floyd was on the short end of a 3-2 loss to the Angels back in late May, despite going eight innings and striking out eight.
LVSC has listed the White Sox as a $1.25 favorite, with the total listed at 10.
What else to watch for:
-- The Indians are absolutely horrible in Game 2's this season, going 8-26. Cleveland is 3-16 off a win in a series opener, and 5-10 off a defeat. The latter stat applies Wednesday as the Tribe hosts the Twins at 7:05 PM EST.
-- The Nationals send out their ace, John Lannan against the Marlins. Lannan has been a strong 'under' play this season, hitting it in 16 of 22 starts, and each of the last four at home. However, Washington has been on a nice 'over' run lately, nailing the 'over' in eight of the last nine games.
-- A Pirates/Diamondbacks matchup in August doesn't mean much at this point in the pennant race, but for bettors, Pittsburgh is worth a strong look. Ross Ohlendorf is 7-2 at PNC Park this season, while not losing a home start since late May.
In keeping with our game plan of acknowledging good pitchers and avoiding bad pitchers during their GOOD and BAD months of the season, below is the list of arms to watch throughout the month of August. Note that the W-L records are those of the team in which the listed pitcher started over the previous three seasons.
Herein, I present a list of the BEST and WORST pitcher performance records during the month of August over the past three years. Note: a handful of pitchers on this list are currently on the Disabled List but could return to the rotation sometime this month. Keep a close eye on their status.
And, hey beer man, pour me another one for the road, whadda ya say? Enjoy...
AUGUST GOOD MONTH PITCHERS
American League
A.J. Burnett - NY Yankees: 11-5
Brad Penny - Boston: 10-4
Ervin Santana - Anaheim: 10-4
Jake Westbrook - Cleveland: 9-2
National League
David Bush - Milwaukee: 11-5
Josh Johnson - Florida: 7-3
Brett Myers - Philadelphia: 9-3
Roy Oswalt - Houston: 14-2
Johan Santana - NY Mets: 14-4
Randy Wolf - L.A. Dodgers: 10-2
AUGUST BAD MONTH PITCHERS
American League
John Danks - White Sox: 2-9
Kyle Davies - Kansas City: 3-8
Jeremy Guthrie - Baltimore: 4-9
Gil Meche - Kansas City: 4-12
Nate Robertson - Detroit: 4-12
Jarrod Washburn - Seattle: 5-13
National League
Zach Duke - Pittsburgh: 2-8
Scott Olsen - Washington: 5-12
Chris Young - San Diego: 3-8
Inside the lines 8/5
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