Listing both pitchers tonight, as I believe Hiroki Kuroda produces a quality effort for a Dodgers team that will be looking to avenge last night’s loss to the Brewers.
I realize it's taken probably half the season, but the Dodgers’ right-hander is seemingly just getting back on track after following his Opening Day win by spending two months on the disabled list. The mechanical flaw that harbored him early on has been ironed out and after strengthening his core, he's now using his lower body much more. By doing so, he’s increased the quality of all his pitches, particularly a sharp-diving splitter that is his late-count, out pitch. He may have just three wins, but he’s improved steadily and should be on for this one tonight.
Look for the Dodgers to rattle Yovani Gallardo, a flyball pitcher who’s made mistakes over the zone at times, and was roughed up by this lineup less than a month ago. Over five innings on July 12, the right-hander was battered for five earned runs and took the loss. He’s 2-3 in his last six starts and I simply like the Dodgers lineup to get to him tonight, while supporting Kuroda.
200♦ MARLINS RUN LINE (LIST Johnson over the Nationals) - A complete mismatch of teams here, and though this one is taking place in Washington D.C., I’m not concerned one bit with right-hander Josh Johnson toeing the slab for me tonight. He was impressive in overcoming several mistakes in his last start to pick up his tenth win of the season. Generally a stingy hurler, the Braves got to him for three runs on eight hits. Though his last start wasn’t as good as some of his previous outings, Johnson is still dominating opposing offenses, as he’s now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 18 straight starts.
Now Johnson will face one of the worst teams in the bigs, and I’m not going to shy away from an arsenal that features two- and four-seam fastballs with plenty of life up and down the zone, while coming inside effectively with plenty of confidence. But it’s that power slider that is secondary pitch that makes a big difference for him, as he’s found a knack for changing the break of that pitch, depending on the hitter. That strategy will work well against the lowly Nationals.
The Marlins have won Johnson’s last three starts and 16 of his 21 outings this season. He’s comes in with a stifling 2.87 ERA. Add in the fact the Marlins have won 10 straight meetings, they’ve won 18 of 20 this season and last and the average margin of victory in 2009 is nearly three runs per win in nine wins this year, and I don’t see any problem in taking the road team on the run line.
200♦ RAYS (LIST Garza over Lester) - Once again I’m all over my boy Matt Garza, as he’ll rise to the occasion tonight and pitch his absolute best against American League East rival Boston in the opener of this crucial series. Though this is no cakewalk for the Red Sox, there’s no doubt in my mind they’re already thinking about the Yankees by now. The most hated MLB rivalry will go down in the Bronx this weekend, but first things first for the Crimson Hose; that being a date with the defending American League champs.
Remember, the Red Sox stumbled out of the break, losing eight of 12; and though it’s easy to believe they’ve righted the ship by scoring 36 runs to win their last four, the run came against lowly Baltimore. This is an entirely different animal, as the Red Sox are 4-6 against the Rays this season, and have lost three of four in St. Petersburg, where they have won just twice in their last 14 regular-season games.
And I’d much rather take Garza than Jon Lester, who recorded a 4.97 ERA after losing both starts against the Rays in the American League Championship Series last season. Those struggles didn’t disappear this year either, as he’s lost both of his starts against them in 2009, allowing 13 runs and 18 hits in 9-1/3 innings. Garza, meanwhile, recorded a 1.38 ERA to win both of his playoff starts against Boston, and carried that momentum over to this season, going 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in three outings.
I’m laying the low chalk with Tampa and listing both.
200♦ UNDER Yankees/Blue Jays (LIST Pettitte/Halladay) - This will make for good TV drama, and you better believe I’ll be tuned in for this pitching showdown of future Hall of Famers. Though the Yanks and Jays are both 1-2 in these two hurlers’ last three starts, Andy Pettitte has turned in a 2.70 ERA in his outings while Roy Halladay has produced a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts.
Pettitte comes in after taking another tough no-decision, this time at Chicago, where he threw six innings of one-run ball before taking an unfortunate slip on the infield that set up the White Sox to score the go-ahead run. Fact is, the southpaw’s stuff has been crisp, especially that late-biting cutter. In those past three starts, Pettitte has limited opponents to six earned runs in 20 innings, and has little to show for it. I expect his absolute best tonight. For New York, the under is on winning runs of 20-6 when Pettitte is on the road, 20-8 when he throws against AL East foes and 7-1 when he’s taking on a losing team.
With Halladay, things should be much more relaxed in this start, as the trade talks have gone way and the home crowd will likely welcome him with huge applause tonight. And because the right-hander has been taking the hill without the luxury of run support moist recently, he’s going to be looking to overpower the Bombers in his house. Halladay has just one win over his past seven outings. Yet during that span he's gone 1-3 with a 3.00 ERA for the Jays. The under has cashed in for the Jays in his last four starts and is 8-3 in his last 11 starts on five days rest.
The under is 10-4 the last 14 meetings in Toronto and 4-1 in Pettitte’s last five starts in Toronto. Play this one low.
Chris Jordan 8/4
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