[G-men]

NFL preview: Pats look to regain AFC East crown
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Michael Vick in the AFC East?

Buffalo craves attention after teetering on the verge of irrelevancy for a decade. Having Vick on the same offense as Terrell Owens would at least keep Ralph Wilson awake on Sunday afternoons.

Vick could be the mother of all Wildcatters in Miami, and give the Dolphins a chance to score on every play.

How about the Jets, where Vick could be a fall-back in case things move too fast for Mark Sanchez?

And what about New England? Rumors had Vick working out for the Pats in Foxboro on Friday. Could Bill Belichick be up to something? Probably not. Looks like Dolphin castoff Cleo Lemon will be the man holding the clipboard this year in New England.

New England Patriots

Projected win total: 11.5

Prediction: Over

Now that the one-year sabbatical is over, the Patriots can go back to doing what they did so well in 2007 – crushing every ounce of dignity out of their opponents.

Tom Brady is back, and much of the record-setting offensive crew he remembers is also returning, with a few exceptions.

Jabar Gaffney, whose fate was sealed when he dropped a game-deciding TD pass in Indianapolis last season, is gone, replaced by veterans Greg Lewis and Joey Galloway. With Randy Moss at the other wideout and Wes Welker underneath, Lewis and Galloway will see mostly one-on-one coverage.

Enigmatic running back Laurence Maroney supposedly is healthy, and newcomer Fred Taylor will get a lot of carries, especially if Maroney disappoints early on.

The defense gave Belichick more than a few Excedrin headaches last year. The linebackers were slow and banged up, the secondary was in tatters after Asante Samuel flew the coop and the vaunted defensive line (Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork) too often was moved off the line of scrimmage.

Only cosmetic changes were made to the front 7, but vets Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden were brought in to shore up a secondary that gave up too many big plays last season.

Stat to remember: Last season’s Patriots scored 179 fewer points than the 2007 record-setting New England team, but still led the division in scoring.

Miami Dolphins

Projected win total: 7

Prediction: Over

Dolphin fans will tell you that last season, when everything went right, was merely payback for 2007, when everything went wrong. Whatever.

But right from the get-go, things went Miami’s way – the Brady injury, the Wildcat offense, the fact that the out-of-gas Jets were on the schedule in Week 17. It all added up to 11-5 and the AFC East title.

GM Bill Parcells and coach Ton Sparano got blood out of a stone in 2008, and while 11 wins seems optimistic, 7 seems on the narrow side.

Pretty much what you saw last season is what you’ll see again next month – QB Chad Pennington running a don’t-screw-up offense and Joey Porter leading a trash-talking defense. (Porter led the AFC is sacks last season, with 17.5).

Miami tried to deal away the No. 1 pick in 2008, but they appear to have themselves a good one in Jake Long, a sure-fire staple on the left side of its O-line.

Stat to remember: Chad Pennington completed more than 72 percent of his passes in the third quarter of games last season.

New York Jets

Projected win total: 7

Prediction: Push

Coach Rex Ryan moves over from Baltimore and you can’t blame him if he tries to implement a similar defense to what the Ravens have shown over the past half-decade.

The alternative isn’t pretty. Last season the Jets gave up the most points in the division, and second-most in the AFC last season.

Linebacker Bart Scott was pilfered from Baltimore to stiffen the spine of the linebacker corps and there are some decent players returning, including safety Kerry Rhodes.

Now that the Brett Favre nonsense is over, the Jets can turn to serious rebuilding behind rookie Mark Sanchez. Sanchez, who will start sooner rather than later, has the benefit of an excellent offensive line that includes LG Alan Faneca, C Nick Mangold and LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson.

Ryan exudes confidence, especially in his defense, but there are some tough tests early. NY opens at Houston, then takes on New England and Tennessee at home before traveling to New Orleans.

Stat to remember: RB Thomas Jones was a strong finisher, averaging 90 yards rushing in games 9-16 after just 75 in games 1-8.

Buffalo Bills

Projected win total: 7.5

Prediction: Under

OK, Terrell Owens might work out. But why stop there? Why not load up on every trouble-maker in the league? Kellen Winslow Jr.? Vick himself? What’s Pacman Jones up to these days? In for a dime, in for a dollar.

You can’t blame the Bills for the Owens move. They’ve been off the radar screen for too long and had to do something to keep from losing the fan base. What Owens (38 TDs in three years in Dallas) has left in the tank and how long he goes without blowing a gasket are Questions 1 and 1A, but if he can still play a bit he should make life easier for wideout Lee Evans.

QB Trent Edwards was never the same after that concussion last season, but he’s the guy and if he can stay on the field, the Bills should be able to move the ball. RB Marshawn Lynch went to his first Pro Bowl last season, but was suspended for three games after a hit-and-run incident in Buffalo and for carrying an unregistered gun in California. Picky, picky, picky.

Defensively, the Bills can be a top-tier defensive team, especially in the line where draft pick Aaron Maybin adds depth. Aaron Schobel appears healthy after being hampered by a foot injury last season.

Stat to remember: The four teams Buffalo defeated at the start of the 2008 season (Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland and St. Louis) finished the season with a combined 16-48 record. None of the Bills’ seven victories came against teams that finished with winning records.

[G-men]

Getting a game plan for betting the NFL preseason
By DAVID JONES
David Jones has worked in the sports betting industry as an oddsmaker and handicapper.


One-hundred and eighty-eight days. That’s much time will have passed since Super Bowl XLIII when the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans take the field on Sunday in the Hall of Fame game.

While fans tolerate the preseason because of the football drought, sharp bettors cherish it.

Here are few ways to be successful betting the exhibition calendar:

New sheriff in town

Since new head coaches are stepping into losing situations, there is a view that these new leaders will try to establish a winning mentality right out of the gate.

First year coaches went 9-8 against the spread last season and 15-14 in 2007. Obviously the stats aren’t overwhelming but in most cases, new sideline bosses like to win their first game, even if it’s an exhibition.

The chaos theory

Clubs with starting quarterback battles are perceived by many to have some value in the preseason. The idea is that these squads will be more aggressive with their offense to give them the best opportunity to evaluate who will start at the most important position on the field.

The seven squads that had some starting quarterback questions heading into the 2008 preseason went 12-16 ATS.

Numbing numbers

Even trends over multiple seasons can be a little shaky. In 2006-07, unders went 21-9-3 in the first full week of the pre-season (Hall of Fame games included). Last year, the majority of the games went over the total with 10 of the 17 contests yielding 35 or more total points.

The game plan

The preseason is about evaluating personnel while avoiding injuries. The regular season is about winning. So, handicappers must adjust accordingly.

During the regular season, coaches say little in their encounters with the print and broadcast media. They give generic answers about the upcoming game and will avoid giving their foes any bulletin board material to use.

Usually, the status of injured players is the most important topic of these media sessions. However, the coaches rarely add much to the widely available injury reports that are distributed by the league. In the regular season, the best available players will play.

This is not the case in the preseason.

The comments of coaches this time are usually more helpful to handicappers than the predictable quotes from the regular season. Before each preseason game, the head coach will usually inform the media of how much the first, second and third string units will play in the upcoming contest.

There are also some other subtle concepts to consider that are less obvious than new coaches or starting quarterback battles. There are teams that have a returning head coach but are breaking in a new coordinator on offense or defense.

What about teams that have a battle going for the backup quarterback spot? With the established starting QB exiting by halftime in three of the four pre-season games, the teams looking to fill the important backup spot are likely to be more aggressive in the passing game to find a reliable No. 2 signal-caller.

The preseason is bizarro world to the regular season. Last year’s Detroit Lions are the perfect example. They went 4-0 in August and became the first team to ever go 0-16 in the regular season.

[G-men]

Virginia Tech's 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
By THE PREZ - I am your Financial Advisor - I take this very seriously

The Virginia Tech Hokies have appeared in more ACC Championship Games than any other team, and Frank Beamer’s club has beaten Boston College in the title game the past two years.

The Hokies ACC title run last year was a bit of a surprise. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year with so many young players and a weak receiving corps.

There were hiccups, including three losses in four games midseason, but Virginia Tech closed strong, including that win over BC in Tampa and an Orange Bowl win over Cincinnati.

A BCS bowl berth alone might be considered a disappointment this year with 15 starters back (eight on offense, seven on defense). The Hokies’ national title hopes rest mainly on quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s growth as a passer. Only eight Division I teams had worse passing attacks last year than the Hokies. Sophomore running back Darren Evans will be one of the best backs in the country, and the defense and special teams will be excellent – as always.

Here’s Virginia Tech’s schedule (times still in flux):

September 5 vs. Alabama (Atlanta)

September 12 vs. Marshall

September 19 vs. Nebraska

September 26 vs. Miami (FL)

October 3 at Duke

October 10 vs. Boston College

October 17 at Georgia Tech

October 29 vs. North Carolina

November 5 at East Carolina

November 14 at Maryland

November 21 vs. North Carolina State

November 28 at Virginia

The Hokies have a difficult non-conference schedule. The good thing is that even with a loss in opening night to Alabama, Virginia Tech could probably still reach Pasadena by winning out because of its schedule and the fact it will be ranked in the preseason top 10.

I expect the Hokies to beat an Alabama team with a new starting QB under center. Tech should finish September 4-0, but there will be some close calls.

The Hokies should be 6-0 heading into a huge game against Georgia Tech, which is in Atlanta. This is Virginia Tech’s only true road test in the conference and I think the Hokies do fall here, but that it will be their only loss in conference.

With 12 days off afterwards to prepare for North Carolina, Virginia Tech will handle the Heels and win out – all games in which Tech will be favored.

Is an 11-1 record and 7-1 in the ACC enough to reach the national title game? It’s possible. Tech catches a break that its main challenger in the ACC Coastal, Georgia Tech, has a much tougher road schedule than the Hokies.

So even though I expect Georgia Tech to win the head-to-head, I also see the Jackets losing two conference games, giving the Coastal to Virginia Tech.

The Hokies will then beat Florida State in the ACC championship game but just miss a spot in the BCS championship, probably to either Texas or Oklahoma.

I still recommend taking an optimistic flier on nearly every Virginia Tech futures bet. Tech’s odds are +150 to win the Coastal (take it) and +250 to win the ACC crown (take that too). I would even take a shot at the +1650 to win the national title, because it’s certainly possible this team is playing Florida in early January.