GAME: San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros Aug 3, 2009 8:05PM
PICK: San Francisco Giants
REASON FOR PICK: The Pittsburgh Pirates are legitimately the central story in tonight’s matchup between the Giants and Astros. Both Mike Hampton and Matt Cain have absolutely dominated Pittsburgh this season. Cain faced them twice since the All Star break, allowing just a single run in 16 innings of work in a pair of San Francisco victories. Hampton has faced Pittsburgh’s anemic lineup four times this year, going 4-0 in those ballgames while allowing only three earned runs and 15 hits in 27 innings of work.
Clearly, both Cain and Hampton can handle the Pirates. But when we examine these two pitchers against the other 28 teams in baseball, the modest price we’re being asked to lay with the Giants becomes too attractive to pass up. Houston is 2-12 in Mike Hampton’s other 14 starts this season, and Hampton is sporting a 7.07 ERA in those ballgames. Hampton has given up 22 earned runs in just 19 innings of work in his last four trips to the hill. Meanwhile, San Francisco is 14-2 with Cain on the hill in his last 16 outings, with eleven of those victories coming by more than one run. He’s gotten stronger as the season has progressed; allowing a grand total of four earned runs in his six July starts.
Houston has no closer available tonight, with Jose Valverde throwing 48 pitches over the last two days, while LaTroy Hawkins is languishing on the DL. The Astros offense has been positively anemic without Lance Berkman in the lineup, held to three runs or less in eight of their last nine games. Facing a hot, confident Giants squad coming off a 6-1 homestand, look for the Astros slump to continue tonight.
Teddy Covers 8/3
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