[G-men]

BEN BURNS

AL West GOY

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I really like the A's in this spot. The fact that the game is being played at Oakland is very important. For starters, the A's played here yesterday afternoon. The Rangers played a night game at Arlington and then had to travel. In theory, that should make the A's a little "fresher" for tonight's game. Additionally, like most teams, both these squads are better at home, particularly Texas. The Rangers are great at home but they've hit just .237 on the road, averaging only 4.2 runs. The fact that Oakland lost yesterday and Texas won doesn't bother me, either. If anything, that should provide the A's with some added motivation here. Most importantly, I also feel the pitching matchup favors Oakland.

Brett Anderson has been very solid of late. His last three starts came against the likes of the~ Angels, Yankees and Red Sox, currently the top three teams in the American League. Despite the tough opposition, Anderson went 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in those games, averaging nearly seven innings per start. Looking back a bit further and we find Anderson is 3-1 with a superb 1.85 ERA in his last six starts. During that stretch, the rookie southpaw has 40 K's in 39 innings and is limiting opponents to a mere .173 batting average. For the season, he has a respectable 4.01 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in seven home starts, averaging better than six innings in those starts.

Dustin Nippert goes for the Rangers (due to an injury to Millwood) and he's got an ugly 7.36 ERA and 2.044 WHIP in his two road starts. He didn't last four complete innings in either of those starts.

With the total currently holding at 8.5, note that the Rangers are a money-burning 4-10 (-4.6) this season when playing a game with a total of either eight or 8.5. On the other hand, even with yesterday's loss (total dropped from 9 to 8.5) the A's are still above .500 (21-20) in that situation, earning a modest profit.

While they've had trouble at Texas, the A's have won three of their last four home meetings with the Rangers. I expect them to provide Anderson some run support and look for them to start the series with a much-needed victory.

*AL West GOY

[G-men]

Ben Burns

FREE PLAY

Game: Chicago Cubs (r) at Cincinnati Reds (r) Aug 3 2009 7:05PM

Prediction: Cincinnati Reds (r)

Reason: The Reds have really been struggling and they lost another tough one yesterday, falling 6-4 in extra innings. I feel they've got a strong shot at scoring the upset here though. Despite a rough outing last time out, Harang has been solid at home. The Reds have won six of his 11 starts here and he's got a respectable 3.57 ERA during those games. The Reds also won each of Harang's final three home starts last season, making them 9-5 his last 14 home starts overall. Prior to his debacle vs. the Padres, Harang had allowed three earned runs or less in seven straight home starts. It's also worth noting that Harang has allowed four earned runs or less in eight of his nine career home starts vs. the Cubs. The Reds were 5-4 in those games.

As already noted, I feel the Reds have a good shot at winning this game. However, with their current struggles and due to the fact that Wells has been quite good for the Cubs, I believe that taking the Reds on the run-line (at +1.5 runs) makes sense. For starters, Wells has seen six of his 15 starts decided by a single run. Additionally, looking at the last four games between these teams, played here at Cincinnati, and we find that three of them were also decided by one run.

Consider Cincinnati at +1.5 runs.