[yisman]

Detroit x6 (1 is RL) / Cleveland x2
over x2 / under
Angels x18 / Minnesota x7
over x3 / under
White Sox x11 / Yankees x11
under
Toronto x11 (1 is RL) / Oakland x2
under x3 / over x4
Colorado x12 (1 is RL)/ Cincinnati x3 (1 is RL)
under
Phillies x7 (2 is RL) / San Francisco x4
under x4
Boston x10 (3 are RL) / Baltimore x4
San Diego x5 / Milwaukee x3
over / under x2
Florida x19 / Cubs x5
over x2
Texas x6 (1 is RL) / Seattle x3
over x2 / under x2
St. Louis RL x8 ML x5
Atlanta x16 / Dodgers x6
under x2
Mets x10 / Arizona x2 (In rain delay)
under
Pittsburgh x15 (1 is RL) / Washington
under
Kansas City x3 (1 is RL) / Tampa Bay RL x2 ML x1
under

[yisman]

Again, White Sox/Yankees ends up a huge split, just like Friday. A lot of picks on the game, split down the middle.

[yisman]

got so wrapped up in completing this that I forgot to make my noon pick on Streak for the Cash.

[yisman]

bolded.

Angels is weakest of bolds.

St. Louis strongest (RL before ML), then Pittsburgh

good luck

[yisman]

St. Louis and Pittsburgh lost.

But this is key where grading is concerned. The consensus indicated RL instead of ML, which makes a big difference in how much is lost.

[curious]

St. Louis and Pittsburgh lost.

But this is key where grading is concerned. The consensus indicated RL instead of ML, which makes a big difference in how much is lost.

I've been parlaying these big favorites on the ML with the total that I think they have to hit in order to win. For the Cardinals that is the UNDER. I also take the UNDER as a straight bet. Doesn't always work but I think it is the only way to lay so much lumber.

Bet like this:
Cardinals -290 and Cardinals UNDER -120 pays +100, $100 to win $100
Cardinals UNDER -120 $120 wins $100

Here are the possible outcomes:
Cardinals win
Cardinals UNDER Win $200

Cardinals Lose
Cardinals UNDER Push

Cardinals Lose
Cardinals OVER Lose $200

Now, do the same thing betting the ML
Cardinals -290 $290 to win $100
Cardinals UNDER $120 to win $100

Cardinals win
Cardinals UNDER Win $200

Cardinals win
Cardinals OVER Push

Cardinals Lose
Cardinals UNDER Lose $190

Cardinals Lose
Cardinals OVER Lose $410


Now lets do it with the RL
Cardinals RL -1 1/2 -150 $150 to win $100
Cardinals UNDER -120 $120 to win $100

Cardinals win
Cardinals UNDER Win $200

Cardinals win
Cardinals OVER Lose $20

Cardinals lose
Cardinals UNDER Lose $50

Cardinals lose
Cardinals OVER Lose $270

Now examine all 3 approaches in terms of risk/reward:

Parlay approach:
Risk $220
Outcomes
Cards Win and UNDER Win $200
Cards Win and OVER Lose $20
Cards Lose and UNDER Push
Cards Lose and OVER Lose $220

Lay the wood Jenna style on the ML:
Risk $410
Outcomes
Cards Win and UNDER Win $200
Cards Win and OVER Lose $20
Cards Lose and UNDER Lose $190
Cards Lose and OVER Lose $410

Wimp out and use the RL
Risk $260
Outcomes
Cards Win and UNDER Win $200
Cards Win and OVER Lose $20
Cards Lose and UNDER Lose $40
Cards Lose and OVER Lose $260

You can either risk:
$200 Parlay $410 ML or $260 RL

the maximum win is the same in every case
The maximum loss is $200 Parlay $410 ML and $260 RL
The split of the side winning and the UNDER losing is the same in every case.
The split of the side losing and the UNDER winning is a loss of:
Push Parlay $190 ML or $50 RL

Use of the RL increases decreases the ROI.

The parlay of the ML and the UNDER along with betting the UNDER straight up is the best way to go.

[yisman]

I just pretty much avoid any baseball moneyline of -200 or worse.

They're simply not worth it.

If you like a favorite that much, take the run line.

[BettorBob]

Bad day today... I guess we were due for a losing day though.



2009-08-02,Pirates,15,-133,3-5,L,$22406
2009-08-02,Mets,10,-116,2-5,L,$24401
2009-08-02,Braves,16,-128,9-1,L,$25561
2009-08-02,Cardinals,13,-270,0-2,L,$27609
2009-08-02,Marlins,19,-135,3-2,W,$31119
2009-08-02,Rockies,12,-125,6-4,W,$29219
2009-08-02,BlueJays,11,-108,7-2,W,$28019
2009-08-02,Angels,18,-104,13-4,W,$26919
2009-08-01,Mariners/Rangers UNDER 8,6,-109,7-2,L,$25119
2009-08-01,Rangers,5,110,2-7,L,$25773
2009-08-01,Mets,5,136,9-6,W,$26273
2009-08-01,Yankees,10,-140,4-14,L,$25593
2009-08-01,Rays,9,-300,7-1,W,$26993
2009-08-01,Rockies,13,-142,6-2,W,$26093
2009-08-01,BlueJays,5,-104,6-5,W,$24793
2009-07-31,Mets,12,100,2-3,L,$24293
2009-07-31,Rockies,15,-160,5-3,W,$25493
2009-07-31,Cardinals,8,-174,4-3,W,$23993
2009-07-31,Cubs,15,-131,2-5,L,$23193
2009-07-31,Rangers,6,-159,5-4,W,$25158
2009-07-31,Rays,11,-270,8-2,W,$24558
2009-07-31,Tigers,16,-164,5-6,L,$23458
2009-07-31,Angels/Twins OVER 10,7,-110,11-5,W,$26082
2009-07-30,Cubs,6,-180,12-3,W,$25382
2009-07-30,Brewers,10,-285,7-3,W,$24782
2009-07-30,RedSox,5,-386,8-5,W,$23782
2009-07-30,Rangers,8,-168,7-1,W,$23282
2009-07-30,Mets,8,-138,7-0,W,$22482
2009-07-29,Marlins,15,-153,6-3,W,$21682
2009-07-29,Phillies,18,-159,0-4,L,$20182
2009-07-29,Rangers/Tigers UNDER 8.5,12,-116,13-5,L,$23044
2009-07-29,Giants,11,-163,1-0,W,$24436
2009-07-29,Cubs,5,-185,12-0,W,$23336
2009-07-28,Mariners,14,-122,4-3,W,$22836
2009-07-28,Braves/Marlins UNDER 7.5,7,-105,3-4,W,$21436
2009-07-28,RedSox,8,-226,8-9,L,$20736
2009-07-28,Yankees,19,-138,2-6,L,$22544
2009-07-27,Giants,10,-230,4-2,W,$25166
2009-07-27,RedSox,11,-325,8-3,W,$24166
2009-07-27,Rangers/Tigers UNDER 9.5,6,-116,5-2,W,$23066
2009-07-27,Rangers,12,-153,5-2,W,$22466
2009-07-27,Cubs,10,-158,5-1,W,$21266
2009-07-27,Angels/Indians OVER 10,7,-113,8-6,W,$20266
2009-07-27,WhiteSox/Twins OVER 9.5,6,100,4-3,L,$19566
2009-07-27,Phillies,16,-112,6-2,W,$20166
2009-07-27,Yankees,11,-103,11-4,W,$18566
2009-07-27,Rockies,12,-154,3-7,L,$17466
2009-07-27,BlueJays/Mariners UNDER 7.5,8,-141,11-4,L,$19314
2009-07-26,Nationals,5,-154,3-2,W,$20442
2009-07-26,Cubs,10,-225,5-2,W,$19942
2009-07-26,RedSox,8,-176,2-6,L,$18942
2009-07-26,Rays/BlueJays UNDER 8.5,8,-108,5-1,W,$20350
2009-07-26,Rays,12,-107,1-5,L,$19550
2009-07-26,Angels,17,-140,1-10,L,$20834
2009-07-26,Rangers,10,-144,7-2,W,$23214
2009-07-26,Astros,15,-151,3-8,L,$22214
2009-07-24,Braves,9,-118,9-4,W,$24479
2009-07-24,Rangers,9,132,2-0,W,$23579
2009-07-24,Angels,8,-145,6-3,W,$22391
2009-07-23,Phillies,12,-300,9-4,W,$21591
2009-07-23,Diamondbacks/Pirates UNDER 7.5,6,100,11-4,L,$20391
2009-07-23,Yankees,12,-270,6-3,W,$20991
2009-07-23,Angels,19,-143,6-5,W,$19791
2009-07-23,Cardinals,13,-174,4-1,W,$17891
2009-07-23,WhiteSox,21,-113,5-0,W,$16591
2009-07-23,Mariners/Tigers UNDER 9,5,-118,2-1,W,$14491
2009-07-23,Tigers,11,-120,1-2,L,$13991
2009-07-22,Mariners,24,-135,2-1,W,$15311
2009-07-22,Giants/Braves UNDER 7,8,-109,4-2,W,$12911
2009-07-22,Giants,15,101,2-4,L,$12111
2009-07-22,Cardinals/Astros UNDER 7.5,8,-126,4-3,W,$13611
2009-07-22,RedSox,10,-150,1-3,L,$12811
2009-07-22,Marlins,11,-144,5-0,W,$14311
2009-07-21,Brewers,8,-137,2-0,W,$13211
2009-07-21,Dodgers,6,-201,12-3,W,$12411
2009-07-21,Angels,7,-123,10-2,W,$11811
2009-07-21,Angels,7,-130,8-5,W,$11111
2009-07-21,RedSox,11,-169,2-4,L,$10411
2009-07-21,Phillies,13,-126,4-1,W,$12270
2009-07-20,WhiteSox,14,-101,4-3,W,$10970
2009-07-20,Rockies,23,-148,10-6,W,$9570
2009-07-20,Twins/Athletics UNDER 8,6,-120,14-13,L,$7270
2009-07-19,Giants/Pirates UNDER 7.5,6,-120,4-3,W,$7990
2009-07-19,Mariners,13,-111,5-3,W,$7390
2009-07-19,Phillies,13,-126,5-0,W,$6090
2009-07-17,Rays,7,-145,8-7,W,$4790
2009-07-17,Twins/Rangers UNDER 10.5,8,100,5-3,W,$4090
2009-07-17,Rockies,7,-147,5-3,W,$3290
2009-07-16,Rockies,17,-125,10-1,W,$2590
2009-07-12,Giants,6,-127,4-10,L,$890
2009-07-12,Tigers,4,-197,10-1,W,$1652
2009-07-12,Marlins,11,-117,8-1,W,$1252
2009-07-10,Marlins/Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5,5,-110,8-0,L,$152
2009-07-10,Dodgers,5,-130,12-8,W,$702
2009-07-09,Dodgers,6,-156,11-2,W,$202
2009-07-07,Twins,5,120,2-10,L,$-398
2009-07-06,Mariners,4,-110,5-0,W,$102
2009-07-06,Tigers,5,-143,3-4,L,$-298
2009-07-03,Cardinals,6,-116,7-4,W,$417
2009-07-02,WhiteSox,5,-132,4-1,W,$-183
2009-07-02,Cubs,6,-144,9-5,W,$-683
2009-07-01,WhiteSox,6,114,6-2,W,$-1283
2009-06-30,Mariners/Yankees UNDER 9.5,3,-121,8-5,L,$-1967
2009-06-24,Pirates,5,-120,10-6,W,$-1604
2009-06-22,Cardinals,4,-111,4-6,L,$-2104
2009-06-21,Rangers,3,-139,2-3,L,$-1660
2009-06-21,Brewers/Tigers UNDER 8,3,-119,3-2,W,$-1243
2009-06-21,Twins,4,-113,1-4,L,$-1543
2009-06-19,Athletics,4,-130,7-5,W,$-1091
2009-06-19,BlueJays,4,-102,1-2,L,$-1491
2009-06-19,WhiteSox,4,105,3-4,L,$-1083
2009-06-15,Angels,8,-125,9-7,W,$-683
2009-06-10,Cubs,4,-122,7-1,W,$-1483
2009-06-08,Cardinals,3,-127,2-5,L,$-1883
2009-06-08,Rangers/BlueJays UNDER 10.5,3,-104,6-3,W,$-1502
2009-06-03,Braves,4,-130,2-3,L,$-1802
2009-06-02,Giants,5,-146,6-10,L,$-1282
2009-05-26,Astros,5,-113,4-6,L,$-552
2009-05-26,Twins,4,-112,5-2,W,$13
2009-05-25,Tigers,6,-136,13-1,W,$-387
2009-05-25,Diamondbacks,4,-140,7-9,L,$-987
2009-05-24,Tigers,4,-152,1-3,L,$-427
2009-05-24,Brewers/Twins OVER 9.5,4,-120,6-3,L,$181
2009-05-22,Phillies/Yankees OVER 11,4,-126,7-3,L,$661
2009-05-22,Twins,4,-138,11-3,W,$1165
2009-05-22,WhiteSox,5,-130,2-0,W,$765
2009-05-21,Giants,4,-134,2-3,L,$265
2009-05-19,Pirates/Nationals OVER 10,3,107,8-5,W,$801
2009-05-19,Athletics/Rays OVER 9.5,3,-115,4-1,L,$480
2009-05-19,Cubs,4,-122,0-3,L,$825
2009-05-19,Dodgers,4,-145,5-3,W,$1313
2009-05-17,Orioles,4,-104,4-7,L,$913
2009-05-15,Indians/Rays OVER 10.5,4,-107,8-7,W,$1329
2009-05-14,Mets,4,-130,7-4,W,$929
2009-05-11,Indians/WhiteSox OVER 9.5,3,-104,9-4,W,$529
2009-05-11,Giants,8,-150,11-7,W,$229
2009-05-10,Giants,4,-126,7-5,W,$-571
2009-05-08,BlueJays,5,-110,3-5,L,$-971
2009-05-08,Marlins,3,100,8-3,W,$-421
2009-05-08,Royals,4,-110,1-4,L,$-721
2009-05-07,Cubs/Astros OVER 10,3,-126,8-5,W,$-281
2009-05-07,Cubs,3,-141,8-5,W,$-581
2009-05-07,Phillies,6,111,5-7,L,$-881
2009-05-06,Twins,5,-112,1-4,L,$-281
2009-05-05,Dodgers,4,-118,3-1,W,$279
2009-05-05,Cardinals,8,-140,7-10,L,$-121
2009-05-04,Angels,3,-114,5-2,W,$999
2009-05-04,Rangers/Mariners UNDER 7.5,3,-115,6-5,L,$699
2009-05-04,Braves,3,-116,4-6,L,$1044
2009-05-02,Rangers,4,-128,9-6,W,$1392
2009-05-02,Mariners,6,-135,2-3,L,$992
2009-05-01,Brewers,3,-143,2-5,L,$1802
2009-05-01,WhiteSox,3,-111,4-3,W,$2231
2009-05-01,Padres,5,121,0-1,L,$1931
2009-05-01,Giants,5,-108,3-2,W,$2431
2009-04-30,Cardinals,4,-112,9-4,W,$1931
2009-04-30,Brewers,5,-105,4-1,W,$1531
2009-04-30,Dodgers,4,-144,8-5,W,$1031
2009-04-30,RedSox,5,-105,0-13,L,$631
2009-04-29,Giants,3,-143,9-4,W,$1156
2009-04-29,Cardinals,3,107,5-3,W,$856
2009-04-29,Pirates,3,183,0-1,L,$535
2009-04-28,Cardinals,6,-106,1-2,L,$835
2009-04-26,BlueJays,5,-147,4-3,W,$1471
2009-04-24,RedSox,5,-141,5-4,W,$971
2009-04-24,Rangers/Orioles OVER 11,3,-114,5-4,L,$471
2009-04-24,Giants,5,-125,5-1,W,$813
2009-04-23,WhiteSox,4,-107,2-6,L,$313
2009-04-23,Rays/Mariners UNDER 7.5,3,-110,1-0,W,$741
2009-04-23,Dodgers,5,-128,2-0,W,$441
2009-04-23,Cardinals,3,-135,12-8,W,$-59
2009-04-22,Cardinals,5,-101,5-2,W,$-359
2009-04-21,Marlins,5,-138,2-3,L,$-859
2009-04-20,Astros,4,-122,3-4,L,$-169
2009-04-20,Marlins,3,-128,0-8,L,$319
2009-04-20,Rockies,5,-101,3-6,L,$703
2009-04-19,Pirates,3,-105,1-11,L,$1208
2009-04-19,Orioles/RedSox OVER 10,3,106,2-1,L,$1523
2009-04-19,Indians/Yankees OVER 10.5,4,-124,7-3,L,$1823
2009-04-17,Astros,6,-147,1-2,L,$2319
2009-04-17,Marlins,5,-125,3-2,W,$3201
2009-04-17,Padres,6,156,8-7,W,$2701
2009-04-16,Phillies,6,-128,2-8,L,$1765
2009-04-16,BlueJays,6,-133,9-2,W,$2533
2009-04-15,Reds,3,125,3-9,L,$1933
2009-04-15,Yankees,3,-108,4-3,W,$2233
2009-04-14,Cardinals,3,-127,6-7,L,$1933
2009-04-14,Royals,6,-136,9-3,W,$2314
2009-04-14,Yankees,4,110,7-2,W,$1714
2009-04-12,Rangers,4,107,4-6,L,$1274
2009-04-11,Cubs,5,-128,6-5,W,$1674
2009-04-11,BlueJays,3,-115,5-4,W,$1174
2009-04-10,Indians/BlueJays OVER 9,2,-112,13-7,W,$874
2009-04-10,Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 10,2,-128,9-4,W,$674
2009-04-10,Angels,4,-107,6-3,W,$474
2009-04-10,Rangers/Tigers OVER 10.5,3,-115,15-2,W,$74
2009-04-08,Reds,3,-118,7-9,L,$-226
2009-04-07,Rockies/Diamondbacks UNDER 9,2,-117,3-0,W,$128
2009-04-06,Angels,3,-138,3-0,W,$-72
2009-04-05,Phillies,3,-124,1-4,L,$-372

[yisman]

I checked vegasinsider.com.

They have historical runline info.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds...1-09/time/1915

I think it would be more accurate to use RL numbers for players denoted as RL plays, like the Cardinals today.

[curious]

I checked vegasinsider.com.

They have historical runline info.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds...1-09/time/1915

I think it would be more accurate to use RL numbers for players denoted as RL plays, like the Cardinals today.

You cannot use league wide RL stats to decide whether to take a particular team on the RL. For some teams this is a good idea, the Orioles for example. The Orioles $Won on the ML when they are the home favorite is -$30. On the RL -1 1/2 the Orioles $Won as a home favorite is $530.

Other teams are a complete disaster on the RL. The Mariners are -$160 ML money won when they are a home favorite. On the RL -1 1/2 the Mariners are -$1125 as a home favorite.

The teams are split about 50/50 as to whether or not using the RL improves their $Won as a favorite.