Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's play 10 Dime -- BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Dodgers (Billingsley)
BRAVES NOTE: List only Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher
Braves starter Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.69 ERA) has quietly become one of the best right-handers in the National League.
Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA over his last four starts, and has allowed one earned run and six hits in his last 20 2/3 innings at Turner Field. The 23-year-old Atlanta ace allowed two runs and seven hits in six innings Tuesday at Florida.
Jurrjens hasn't faced the Dodgers yet this year, but he went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against them last season, allowing two runs and eight hits in 13 innings.
Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley (10-6, 3.96) won nine games by mid-June, but has triumphed just once with a 6.46 ERA in his last eight starts. The right-hander allowed six runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday at St. Louis.
Billingsley has had troubles with Atlanta in the past, going 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in four appearances (two starts). He allowed nine earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in two outings against the Braves last year.
The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six games in Atlanta, and I don't see that improving today. Go with the Braves in this one.
Arizona starter Jon Garland is 0-3 in his last three outings. So why do I like him today?
Well, for starters, his ERA is just 3.79 in those starts, which tells me that he hasn't received much run support when on the mound. In fact, Garland has pitched six consecutive quality starts, including allowing three runs and five hits in six innings Monday against the Phillies.
Not only did Garland turn in a quality outing against Philadelphia, but his three previous quality performances before that were against Colorado, St. Louis and Florida, which all have offenses that can rake. So going against the Mets today shouldn't worry Garland too much.
Garland has been sharp in 10 road starts this season, despite his 2-5 record, with a 2.67 ERA. He allowed three runs (two earned) and six hits in six innings in his only career start vs. New York on June 18, 2008.
Mets starter MIke Pelfrey (8-6, 4.72) beat Colorado on Tuesday, allowing seven hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings, but that was just his fourth victory in his last 15 outings.
The right-hander is 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA in three career starts vs. Arizona.
I expect Garland to turn in another solid start today in a winning effort for Arizona. Take the Diamondbacks in this one.
Dominic Fazzini 8/2/09 (paid + free)
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