15-Dime Red Sox -1' Runs (I am taking whomever pitches for Boston over Berken)
This should be easy money, as I’m siding against Jason Berken wholeheartedly. After all, the Orioles are 0-3 in his last three starts, he’s sporting a 7.16 ERA in those games, he’s 1-8 with a 6.21 ERA in 2009 and Baltimore has lost 10 of his 12 starts this season.
Those are some horrendous numbers to come in with, especially with the Red Sox aiming for a shot to get back into first place in the American League East, with an upcoming series with the Yankees around the corner.
Yesterday’s 4-0 win clinched Boston’s ninth straight series win over the O’s, while it improved to 25-10 in Baltimore since 2005. Meanwhile, the Orioles dropped to 4-11 since the All-Star break and looked terrible in going 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position.
That offense won’t catch any breaks today, as it’s scheduled to face Clay Buchholz, who comes in after tossing 5-2/3 innings of two-run ball last Tuesday, when he struck out a season-high five in what ended up being a 9-8 loss to Oakland at Fenway Park. He took the no-decision, so after what was a respectable outing, I like my chances in him finishing the job today.
15-Dime Rays -1' Runs (I am taking whomever pitches for Tampa over whomever is going for Kansas City) - A 15-3 edge over the first two games of this series, and there’s no reason to believe the Rays can’t pull off the blowout win in the series finale.
The Royals come in on a 3-12 slide as an underdog and will be playing their seventh straight road game in as many days. Tampa Bay is in on winning runs of 9-3 versus the American League Central, 91-37 at the Trop and 24-6 in this series, including all eight meetings this season. Meanwhile, the Royals stumble into this one on a plethora of losing streaks, including 15-38 off a loss, 2-7 on the road, 7-21 against winning teams and 6-24 after giving up five or more runs their last time out (last night’s final was 7-1).
I said much of the same yesterday, and believe it’s all relevant in this one today. Lay the run line with Tampa Bay, which will crush the road-weary Royals once again.
15-Dime Tigers (WITH Galararraga over Pavano) - Off a solid extra-inning win yesterday, the Tigers will finish up with their American League Central rivals by knocking them off for the ninth time in 12 meetings this season. Though Cleveland won the opener 6-5 on Friday night, these two have gone into extra innings in games one and two, and I don’t believe the Indians will have enough left in the tank for the series finale.
Detroit starter Armando Galarraga will be glad to start August after a winless July, and I don’t mind backing the right-hander, knowing his record is far from indicative of how well Galarraga has pitched the past month. Galarraga sported an impressive 3.29 ERA in four July starts, scattering 21 hits over 27-1/3 innings while fanning 18 batters. Durability was a strong point, as three of his last four starts lasted at least seven innings, with the lone exception being a six-inning performance. He’ll be pitching in revenge for a July 11 loss to the Indians and Carl Pavano.
The Cleveland right-hander, who is sporting a 5.66 ERA this season, has given up 13 runs total against the Blue Jays and Angels in his last two starts and now faces a Tigers team that is scrapping to maintain its standing atop the Central division. That’s not exactly a good thing for Pavano, who gave up eight home runs in those two games. The long ball could be an issue today, and I’m going to be on the right side of them.
Seattle won yesterday; tonight it’ll be the Rangers in a blowout of the M’s.
Scott Feldman battled through his shortest outing in 43 career starts and the most runs allowed this season, so I’m thinking he’s going to put forth his absolute best effort tonight for the win. After all, he had thrown at least five innings in 17 starts and snapped a streak of six consecutive quality starts.
He should do much better than Ian Snell, who is making his Mariners debut after being acquired from the Pirates in a seven-player trade on Wednesday. He went 2-8 with a 5.36 ERA in 15 starts for the Pirates. This is someone who was supposed to be an integral part of the lineup, but was optioned to a Triple-A assignment and spend some time in Toledo.
The scenery won’t change much for Snell, he’ll still struggle; and besides, this is the wrong opponent to make your American League debut against, as the Rangers could rip him for double digits.
Scott Delaney 8/2
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