20 DIME: BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Dodgers ... NOTE: List Jair Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher. If Jurrjens does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Braves
Ever so quietly, Jair Jurrjens has put together some incredible numbers and emerged as the Braves’ bona fide ace this year. No, his 9-7 record isn’t very attractive, nor is his team’s 11-11 mark when Jurrjens pitches. However, those records don’t come close to reflecting how strong the right-hander has been this season. For a more accurate depiction of Jurrjens’ abilities, get a load of these stats:
He has a 2.69 ERA, which is sixth-lowest in the National League; he has a 2.51 ERA in 11 home starts (including giving up just one run in his last three at home); he’s allowing barely a baserunner per inning (159 combined hits and walks allowed in 134 innings); and he has 93 strikeout against 48 walks overall (nearly a 2-to-1 ratio). Also, in Jurrjens’ 22 starts, he’s given up three earned runs or fewer 19 times, two earned or less 17 times and one or no earned runs on nine occasions, and he’s pitched at least six innings in 17 of his last 18 starts that weren’t interrupted by rain.
Jurrjens enters this game against the Dodgers on a roll, having given up a total of five runs and 17 hits in his last four starts covering 25 2/3 innings (1.75 ERA). The Braves won the first three of those games – beating Colorado 4-3 on the road and the Mets (11-0) and Giants (4-2 at home) – before suffering a tough 4-3 loss at Florida on Monday.
And for good measure, look at what Jurrjens did in two starts against the Dodgers last season: He gave up a run on three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 home win last April, then surrendered just a run on five hits over six innings of a 9-3 road victory last July. Those two runs allowed in 13 innings equates to a 1.39 ERA. By comparison, Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley also faced the Braves twice last season and went 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA – including going opposite Jurrjens in that 9-3 Atlanta win in Los Angeles.
Speaking of Billingsley, the Dodgers’ ace has hit a big-time wall. Over his last four starts, he’s gotten tagged for 19 runs (all earned) in just 18 1/3 innings (9.33 ERA). L.A. split those four games, including a 10-0 loss at St. Louis on Monday, and the Dodgers are just 3-5 in his last eight trips to the mound (2-3 on the road). One sure sign that the hard-throwing Billingsley isn’t right: He has 11 walks against 16 strikeouts during his four-start funk after enjoying a 115-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 18 starts.
With this game being played at night, it’s also interesting to note that Billingsley’s ERA under the lights (4.40) is nearly twice as high as Jurrjens’ ERA in night games (2.52). Throw in the fact that the Braves have won 11 of their last 14 home games, eight of their last 11 as a favorite, and five straight games against the N.L. West with Jurrjens starting, and I’ll lay this very reasonable price – especially considering this a very tough spot for the Dodgers, who are wrapping up a seven-game road trip with a less-than-desired night game, after which they’ll board a long red-eye flight back to L.A.
I at least got back to my winning ways with the freebies Saturday, not only scoring an easy 5♦ winner on the Cardinals-Astros UNDER the total, but pegging the 3-1 final score. I’m now on a 17-8 free-play roll, and for Sunday, I’m going take a shot with the struggling Royals as a big road underdog at Tampa Bay.
Obviously, this has been a lost season for Kansas City, which got off to a solid 18-11 start to the season only to plummet drastically from there. Among other slumps, the Royals have lost 52 of their last 74 games overall, 26 of their last 36 on the road and 21 of their last 27 games against the Rays (including five in a row over the past two weeks).
So I understand that backing the Royals in any situation doesn’t come without risk. But in this instance today, the potential reward (i.e. the very generous plus price) makes the risk worth taking. And it’s all about the starting pitching matchup. Because if you believe, like I do, that starting pitching is 75 percent of the equation when handicapping baseball, well, the Royals offer a lot of value today. After all, Kansas City’s Brian Bannister has 6-7 record, a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 19 starts. Tampa Bay starter has a 6-7 record, a 3.87 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 22 starts.
It doesn’t take a brainiac to conclude that nothing separates these two starters. In fact, when you consider that Shields has been favored in the majority of his games (and the Rays are just 10-12 when he pitches), while Bannister is usually an underdog (Kansas City is 9-10 in his 19 starts), it’s clear who the better “money” pitcher (i.e. more profitable) has been: Bannister. And if you check recent form, you’ll see that Bannister has pitched at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts and allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 outings, while Shields has a 6.47 ERA in his last four starts, with the Rays going 1-3 (0-2 at home).
Yes, that one victory behind Shields came in Kansas City on July 17, when the Rays rallied for an 8-7 victory. However, Shields gave up seven runs on 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings that day. Shields’ counterpart just happened to be Bannister, who allowed two earned runs in five innings – but was a victim of his bullpen, which blew leads of 6-2 and 7-4. Could that bullpen implode again? Of course. But it’s just as likely that Bannister will outpitch Shields again, and if he does, then I love my chances with Kansas City – especially at this massive underdog price.
Jeff Benton 8/2
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