Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians Aug 1, 2009 7:05PM
PICK: over
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #922 CLEVELAND/DETROIT Over
The last time that Rick Porcello took the mound we put an Over ticket into play, noting how he had literally hit the wall in his rookie season. We lost that ticket, but it had nothing to do with Porcello’s part of the equation – he allowed five runs in 5.1 innings against the White Sox, with an ominous secondary chart that showed that both his home runs and walks allowed exceeded his strikeouts. Or in this case, strikeout, since he could fan only one of the 24 batters that he faced. Now the 20 year old will likely go over 100 innings for the season tonight (he enters at 97.1), and with his confidence wobbling this is not a situation for a turnaround. And keep in mind that his stuff is not all that dominating, but that early-season opponents lacked scouting reports. In four “second look” games it has been an unsightly 7.45 allowance, and this will be the second go-around this season for a Cleveland offense that has been one of baseball’s best since the break.
We write about Jeremy Sowers often, almost always getting the money, and he simply is who he is – a guy that is crafty enough to fool overly aggressive hitters at the AAA level, but just does not have enough pop in his arm to succeed from major League mounds. In going 1-6/6.42, 4-9/5.95 and now 3-7/5.15 the past three seasons the cement is getting dry for his epitaph, and his struggles to get out right-handers makes him a particularly bad matchup vs. the Tigers. Seven Detroit players have at least five career at-bats against him and six of those seven are hitting .333 or better, with Curtis Granderson, Marcus Thames and Miguel Cabrera all having home runs in their portfolios. There is no particular reason to believe any of that changes in this setting.
Not only is there the potential for a lot of early scoring here; the pace never slows down. With neither Edwin Jackson nor Fausto Carmona working many innings last night the bullpens got a high exposure in the series opener, and note that both closers had long stints, with Fernando Rodney going two full innings at 29 pitches, and Kerry Wood 1.1 and 26. That means that the door stays wide open for the hitters throughout in this one.
zigo it's ok we appreciate your help, please look out for the dups, and usually the free picks goes under the premium pick on the capper in cuestion.
Good luck with your picks
Dave Malinsky 8/1
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