5-Star LA Angels +140 over MINNESOTA
The Angels beat the Tribe 9-3 on Wednesday to get to 60-40 on the season. They are a significant dog here because Blackburn has great numbers at home and the Twins have won four straight. However, the Angels have scored at least six runs in nine of their last ten games and they are very tough to beat when they are putting up big numbers. The Angels have not lost this season on the road when they are off a 5+ run win, going a perfect 8-0.
The Angels are motivated by three things: when they facing a team on a winning streak, when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record and when they are a dog when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. All three are active here. The Halos are a best-in-league 32-14 vs a team that has won at least their last four games (o:streak>=4 and date>=20050501 and team) including 15-6 as a road DOG vs a team that has won at least their last three games. Also, LA is 9-4 since May as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record and a scintillating 15-3 as a DOG when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. Yikes!
Both these teams are off wire-to-wire wins. However, Minnesota is 0-6 as a favorite of more than 110 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and the Angels are 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a road series when they are off a win in which they never trailed, with two of the six wins as a dog.
Many squares will lay this big number citing the fact that Minnesota is 11-1 their last dozen when Nick Blackburn starts as a home favorite and Ervin Santana lasted only three and two-thirds in his last start, allowing six runs. However, this information does not give any line value because the linesmakers KNOW that Blackburn has been a good investment at home and they KNOW that Santana was bombed in his last start. Less well known is the fact that the Angels are a staggering 21-4 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start! They are 11-1 their last dozen in this situation and they have not lost in this spot this season. Finally, the Angels are a perfect 10-0 with Santana in the first game of a road series - including 3-0 this season. We give the Angels a significantly better than even chance at winning here and they are a BIG dog.
We're playing LA on the adjusted run line (-1.5 runs at a big price).
4-Star NY METS -110 over Arizona - The Mets lost 4-2 in the nightcap yesterday to break a five-game winning streak. They led 1-0 after five, but the Rockies tied it up in the sixth and went on to win 4-2. We expect that they'll get right back to their winning ways tonight. The Mets are 8-1 since late April in the first game of a series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. Their only loss was by a single run against the Yankees and Chamberlain as a 185 dog. More specifically, NY is 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a home series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead, winning each of the last four by multiple runs.
Hernandez has produced wins in two straight starts, going seven innings in each and allowing 2 and 3 runs respectively. The Mets are a reliable 5-0 since May at home when they won the last two games their starter started.
Arizona is off a 4-0 shutout of the Phillies and they send Doug Davis to the hill to face the Mets. The Diamondbacks are a huge money-burner in this spot. The Snakes are 0-19 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and their starter lasted more than six innings (team=Diamondbacks and D and po:BL=0 and p:SIP>6 and 20080524<=date) - including 0-10 THIS season.
In his last start, Doug Davis went six innings and allowed no runs in a 7-0 win over the Pirates. Well, Arizona is 0-5 THIS season when Doug Davis starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs.
The price is right.
4-Star LA Dodgers +155 over ATLANTA - Both these teams won on the road in extra innings by scoring multiple runs in the top of the tenth. LA broke a four game losing streak yesterday with a 5-3 win over the Cardinals in ten innings and the Braves broke a 2-game losing streak with a 6-3 win in Florida in ten innings.
The Dodgers outhit the Cards 12-6 and this is a positive indicator. LA is 11-2 as a ROAD DOG after a win in which they had at least a dozen hits, including 8-1 THIS season and 5-0 their last five. In the first game of a series, the Dodgers are 8-1 THIS season when they are off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits, including 4-0 if it is the first game of a road series.
The Dodgers put their game faces on when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record, going 14-8 as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record.
The obvious reason why the Dodgers are such a huge dog here is the pitching match-up. In his last start, Schmidt allowed five runs in three innings and the Dodgers lost 8-6 to the Marlins. In his two starts, he has received plenty of run support and we expect the Dodgers' bats to support him better than expected here. LA is a perfect 5-0 THIS SEASON when their starter went less than four innings in his last start, out-scoring their opponent by an average of 4.8 runs per game.
In Hanson's last start, the Braves were shut out 4-0 as a dog in Milwaukee. Atlanta, unlike the Dodgers, does poorly when their pitcher got little run support in his last start. The Braves are 5-15 since late April as a favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.
The Braves won Hansen's first five starts, but are 1-3 his last four. There is a good chance that this will be his first home loss, as LA is a solid 3-3 their last six as a 150+ dog.
Mti 7/31
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