1. I am not going to at all try and defend the recent play from Terry Francona's Red Sox, save the last few innings yesterday, because it has been beyond brutal. Boston has regressed terribly over the past few weeks and it is a total possibility that they may not even make the playoffs, even with that last comeback win over the A's
John Smoltz gets the ball for Boston and he has been anything but good of late. The future Hall of Famer has struggled immensely and is not the same guy that was with the Braves, I fully understand that. But Smoltz was very solid in that game about a month ago at Camden Yards before the rains came and he had his win stolen from him because of the unreal Oriole 10-1 comeback where the birds prevailed 11-10. If there is ever a case that the baseball Gods or Karma or whatever you want to call it will even things up then this is it. I'm not saying that I handicap on those feelings at all because that is a bit silly but let's be honest here, Smoltz still has enough in the tank to be alright and the Red Sox are still the far superior team today with the much better bullpen.
Jeremy Guthie is alright. The righthander can be very good at times but he also can be pretty poor at times. In other words he is a feast or famine type hurler so you never fully know what is up with him. His last outing was bad in Fenway and I don't believe we will see a 180 today and watch Guthrie look anything above mediocre.
Look for Pedroia, Bay, Lowell, Big Papi, Ellsbury and the Sox to flex their muscles and take care of business here at this bargain basement price. We really are looking at a steal of a price as Boston wins this game a lot more than the oddsmaker seems to believe.
2. The Padres did play a little better in that last series in Cincinnati but don't let that fool you one bit as they flat out do not hit at home in PETCO Park. Besides Adrian Gonzalez there is very little talent and to get Fielder, Braun and the far more talented Brewers at this cheap cheap price is way too good to pass up.
Both Braden Looper and Chad Gaudin are decent enough Major Leaguers. Neither is great but when push comes to shove I'll take my chances on Looper. He has been better for sure as a starter then when he closed games for the Mets and is your typical six inning three run type of a guy which is definitely good enough with his high powered offense.
Obviously PETCO is a total pitchers' ballpark and with the Padres horrible offense I fully believe that Looper is going to have a really really solid outing and in the end that will be more than enough for the far better Brewers to do their thing.
San Diego is probably the worst team in all of baseball and to get the Brew Crew at this number, even away from Miller Park, is just fine with me!
If you ask me who is better between Clayton Richard and Sergio Mitre than I will say Richard. The Chicago southpaw just looked great in that last outing stifling the Tigers at Comerica and helped his White Sox salvage a game in that series. Meanwhile Mitre is only on the Yankees due to atrition and has to potential to get smacked today if that sinker is not working. So the edge in terms of the starters clearly goes against me, and I am not belittling the importance of that, but I still cannot pass up the much better and still much hotter Yankees at this price. Chicago did pull it out last night but that doesn't faze me at all.
I do expect Mitre to give up runs but I also expect Richard to come back down to Earth in a higher than expected scoring game. Balls fly out of this ballpark and we all know how Arod, Teixeira, Damon, Jeter and the Bombers do not mind that one bit.
Ever since Arod returned the Yanks have been winning at a ridiculously high pace and I just do not see much changing here against a White Sox team that has been pretty brutal over the past few weeks. Besides Mark Buehrle nobody on "the good guys" has been doing much of anything. Chicago lost three of four in Detroit and just were swept in Minnesota. For sure coming home is a good thing but I'm betting it's not good enough in this spot.
Matt Rivers 7/31
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