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Inside the lines 7/31
INSIDE THE LINES
FRIDAY, JULY 31
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (54-46) at Florida (52-49)
Two of the hottest teams in the National League open a three-game set at LandShark Stadium in Miami today as the Cubs send righty Rich Harden (7-6, 4.55 ERA) to the mound opposite Marlins’ right-hander Christopher Volstad (8-9, 4.44).
Chicago comes in having won seven of its last eight with an offense that has put up five runs or more in each of those eight contests. The Cubs took three of four over the Astros with Thursday’s 12-3 victory and outscored Houston 24-3 in the final two games. Chicago is on runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 against N.L. East teams and 5-1 on Fridays.
Florida fell 6-3 in 10 innings against the Braves on Thursday, but the Marlins have still won six of their last eight overall. They are riding additional positive streaks of 11-4 at home, 7-2 at home against right-handed starters and 4-1 in series openers, however they are just 3-12 in their last 15 as a home ‘dog and 1-5 in their last sis on Friday.
Chicago has taken four of the last five meetings with the Marlins, but the Fish have won seven of the last nine in Florida.
Harden has been nails for the Cubs lately, going 2-0 in his last three starts with a 0.95 ERA. He’s 4-1 on the road this season with a 2.03 ERA and he’s allowed a total of two earned runs in his last three roadies, covering 20 innings. He got roughed up by the Marlins back on May 1 when he gave up five runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings, but his offense came back to win the game 8-6. With Harden on the mound, the Cubs are just 1-4 on the road against winning teams, but they are on runs of 4-0 when he’s a road chalk and 5-2 when he faces the N.L. East.
Volstad has been shaky at home for Florida, going 3-6 with a 5.24 ERA. In Los Angeles on Sunday, the Dodgers got him for four runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings and his offense pulled out the win, 8-6. He faced these Cubs back on April 30 and allowed two runs on three hits over seven innings of an 8-2 victory. He’s allowed just six earned runs in three starts against Chicago over the last two seasons. Florida is 4-0 when Volstad gets four days of rest, but just 1-5 when he starts on Friday, 1-4 in his last five at home and 0-4 when he opens a series.
It’s all “unders” for the Cubs when Harden pitches, including 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-1-1 as a road favorite and 4-1 when he gets four days of rest. As a team, the Cubs have topped the total in four of five against the N.L. East and four of five on the road, but they’ve stayed under the number in 10 of 13 as a road favorite and 31 of 48 on Fridays.
With Volstad pitching, the Marlins are on “under” runs of 7-3-2 in series openers, 9-3-1 as an underdog and 11-3-1 against winning teams. As a team, Florida has topped the total in five straight on Friday, eight of 12 against the N.L. Central and 11 of 18 at home against right-handers. In this series, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 in Florida and 4-1 in the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (60-40) at Minnesota (52-50)
The Twins will try to make it five in a row when they send righty Nick Blackburn (8-5, 3.82 ERA) to the hill inside the Metrodome to welcome Angels’ right-hander Ervin Santana (3-6, 7.29) in the first game of this three-game set.
The Angels finished a seven-game homestand on Wednesday by beating the Indians 9-3. They went 5-2 in those seven, including 3-1 against these Twins in a four-game set last weekend. Los Angeles is on a plethora of positive runs, including 36-16 overall, 13-3 on the road, 13-3 in series openers, 9-2 as a ‘dog, 6-0 after an off-day and 6-2 on Fridays.
Minnesota swept the White Sox this week, winning all three games by two runs or less, including Wednesday’s 3-2 victory. The Twins are just 1-4 in their last five against A.L. West teams, but they are on streaks of 65-32 at home, 58-22 as home favorites, 24-7 on Fridays and 23-8 after an off-day.
Santana has won two of his last three starts, but his ERA is a whopping 6.11 in those three. He got blasted by these Twins on Sunday, allowing six runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss in the series finale in Anaheim. He’s allowed 11 runs in his last 9 2/3 innings and he’s yielded four runs or more in seven of his last 10 outings. Still, with Santana on the hill, the Angels are on runs of 10-2 in series openers, 4-1 when he’s a ‘dog, 5-2 on the road and 7-3 against the A.L. Central.
Blackburn is a perfect 5-0 at home with a 2.67 ERA, but he is just 1-1 with a 9.77 ERA in his last three outings overall. In Anaheim on Saturday, he allowed six runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-5 Twins’ loss. In two outings this season against Los Angeles, he’s given up 10 runs in 10 innings.
With Blackburn throwing, the Twins are 0-5 against the A.L. West and just 5-11 when he faces a team with a winning record, but they are on positive runs of 12-1 when he’s a home favorite, 17-4 when he’s at home and 5-1 when he pitches on Friday.
Los Angeles is on several “under” streaks with Santana on the hill, including 9-2 on the road, 5-1-1 on Fridays, 13-6-1 when he gets four days of rest, 8-3 in series openers and 8-3-2 against A.L. Central teams. Conversely, as a squad, the Angels are on a host of “over” runs that include 36-15-3 overall, 11-0 against the A.L. Central, 21-5-2 following a win and 23-6-1 against right-handed starters.
With Blackburn pitching, the Twins have stayed under the total in eight of his last 11, seven of 11 when he’s a home favorite and four of five at home. However, as a team, Minnesota is on “over” runs of 39-19-2 on Fridays, 5-1 against right-handers, 4-1 after an off-day, 5-2 in series openers and 5-0 against the A.L. West. Finally, the over was a perfect 4-0 when these two met in Anaheim last weekend.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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