[joey]

Today’s Free Pick

GAME: Atlanta Braves @ Florida Marlins Jul 28, 2009 7:10PM SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks PICK: under Offered at: 8.5 WSEX REASON FOR PICK: 4* #901 ATLANTA/FLORIDA Under

Ricky Nolasco continues to bring much better stuff to the table than his 5.42 full-season ERA indicates. Jair Jurrjens continues to throw at a consistently high level. With all bullpen arms fresh behind the starters, we have excellent value to work with here in a game in which they allow us to have 8 as a “win” number.

In nine starts since returning from that stint in the Minors, Nolasco has worked to a 5-2/2.73 tune, and those are the only numbers that matter to us in terms of measuring him. He has been every bit of that, with a 1.01 WHIP and a sparkling ratio of 68 strikeouts vs. only 12 walks, and only once in his last seven starts has his PPI gone above 15.5. He has allowed only eight runs in 36 home innings since the return, and after having twice as many strikeouts as base-runners allowed in shutting out San Diego in his last outing, the confidence level will be high for this key division showdown.

Meanwhile Jurrjens has been a model of consistency in his young career, bringing a rare savvy for a pitcher of his age. He held the opposition to three earned runs or less in 21 of 30 starts LY, and so far this season it has been 18 of 21, with two or less being allowed in 16 of those games. In two starts since the All Star break he has twice as many strikeouts (10) as hits allowed (five), while also walking only three batters, and in his only start against the Marlins this season he got a “W” from this mound after allowing only three hits in seven innings.

With both starters more than capable of working deep into the night here the middle relief arms can be taken out of play, and that means a bridge right to the rested set-up men and closers.


anyone see his other plays

[joey]

4- Boston -1.5 +100