We rate these starters close to even in this situation, but the Phillies have the much better offense. Philadelphia is 11-0 on the ROAD with Hamels when he threw more than 98 pitches and won in his last start, as long as it wasn’t a complete game shutout. In his last start in this spot (6/4) he went up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers in LA and pitched a complete game 3-0 shutout. Hamels is also at his best when the team is on a winning streak. The Phillies are 6-0 with Hamels this season when they won at least their last three games, winning by an average of 5.5 rpg.
In the series opener, Philadelphia scored the first six runs of the game and eventually won 6-2. The Phillies’ bats are terrific in this spot. Philadelphia is 13-0 on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after scoring six-plus runs, scoring an average of 7.1 runs per game. Philadelphia last eight wins in this spot, which are all from THIS season, were by multiple runs.
The D-Backs had their chances to score yesterday, as they out-hit the Phillies 9-6 and drew five walks. Some may use this as evidence for a play on the Snakes, but this would be faulty reasoning. Arizona is 38-55 after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 9-0 THIS season on the road after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks.
With Arizona a poor 30-37 as a favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led, we’ll take the champs as a dog.
MTi Sports 7/28
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