This will be an exciting divisional matchup featuring two teams who are tied for 2nd place in the NL East. The Marlins have been hot as of late winning 5 of their last 6. The Braves have been just as impressive winning 6 of their last 8. I like the Braves as a small favourite in this one for a few reasons. Atlanta has a significant advantage on the mound in this matchup featuring Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.67) and Ricky Nolasco (10-7, 5.42). Each pitcher has been strong as of late, but Jurrjens has been incredibly dominant going 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his last three starts. Atlanta’s offense has been on fire as of late, averaging 6.1 runs per game in its last 10 contests and averaging 0.319 versus right handed pitchers during that stretch. The Marlins on the other hand have been averaging 4.2 runs in their last 10 and batting 0.257 versus right handed pitchers down that stretch. Additionally, there are a few trends that heavily favour Atlanta in this one. Florida is 3-12 in its last 15 starts as a home underdog and 0-5 in Nolasco’s last 5 starts versus the Braves.
2) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: Under 10 -120 (4 units)
There is a substantial amount of value playing the UNDER in this matchup. The total at 9.5 or 10 is inflated. Detroit sends rookie lefty Lucas French (1-1, 2.22) to the mound. He has been faring rather well recently with an ERA of only 2.17 in his last 3 starts. This works in our favour since UNDER is 8-2 in Texas’ last 10 home games versus left handed pitchers. Vincente Padilla (7-5, 4.67) will start for the Rangers. Padilla’s numbers haven’t been fantastic but the UNDER trends related to Padilla are heavily one sided. UNDER is 6-0 in Padilla’s last 6 home starts and 7-0 in Padilla’s last 7 overall. Overall, the Tigers and Rangers have been UNDER machines as of late. UNDER is 10-1 in Detroit’s last 11 and 10-0-1 in the Rangers last 11. UNDER is 22-5 in Texas’ last 27 when the total is set at 9 to 10.5.
unlockedsports 07/28
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