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Ferringo 7-28-09
2-Unit Play. Take #905 Colorado (-125) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
Just backing the better team here and Pinata Pelfrey has been a mess for the Mets recently. Pelfrey’s ERA for the season is now 5.00 – which is awful – and over his last four outings his ERA is a robust 8.03. Colorado should jump all over Pelfrey, who has won just three times in his last 10 outings. The Mets have had trouble all year with quality right-handed pitching and I think that Jason Marquis will keep the ball down and in the ballpark tonight.
2-Unit Play. Take #916 San Francisco (-130) over Pittsburgh (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
Barry Zito usually does work after the All-Star break and he has a good spot here. The Giants were all over the Pirates last night in San Fran and should have won by a lot greater margin than they did. Pittsburgh is just 19-47 on the road and a feble 13-48 on the road against a lefty starter. The Giants were shut down by Chuckles Morton in Pittsburgh last week. I don't see that happening again.
1-Unit Play. Take #901 Atlanta (-115) over Florida (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
The road team has been the play in this series, as the visitors have won all five meetings this year and six of seven overall. Also, the Braves are 5-3 in their last eight games in Florida so they happen to play well there. I think that the Braves are a little hotter right now and that they have the edge coming into this series. Ricky Nolasco is 1-4 in his career against the Braves and hasn’t seen the new-look lineup yet. I like the Bravos to keep rolling and to get the first game in this series. The Braves are 37-17 after an off day and the Marlins are 2-8 with rest. Also, Florida is just 3-12 as a home dog.
1-Unit Play. Take #917 N.Y. Yankees (-135) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
The Yankees are hot and they continue to pound away at left-handed pitching. They have won seven of eight on the road against a lefty and they have won five of seven overall in Tampa. Scott Kazmir just has not been the same guy this season. He has a 9.50 ERA at home and a 6.69 ERA overall. He has just been too up-and-down to be considered reliable in a big spot here. C.C. Sabathia has won four of six starts and posted a quality outing in six of eight starts. Sabathis is 7-1 in his career against the Rays and I’m just going to ride the hot team here.
1-Unit Play. Take #908 Milwaukee (-1.5, +100) over Washington (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
Looking for a bounceback out of the Brewers, who are sinking like a stone. We’ve seen a 40-cent bounce on this line and I think that might be an indicator that the Brew Crew is going to come to play today.
1-Unit Play. Take #928 L.A. Angels (-1.5, -110) over Cleveland (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
Would really love to go higher on this one because I think David Huff is terrible. And I know we should have won last night but the Angels bullpen – once again – choked it away. However, Cleveland is getting hot. They have won five straight and are finally starting to play like the team I thought they would be earlier this year.
1-Unit Play. Take #912 St. Louis (-115) over L.A. Dodgers (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
Chad Billingsley just has not been himself over the last month or so and now he’s being mentioned in trade rumors. Tough times. He has given up 24 runs in his last 34 innings (a 6.35 ERA) and right now the Cardinals are just playing better, more confident, baseball. St. Louis is 35-16 in Adam Wainwright’s last 51 starts and 19-8 when he starts at home. Further, the Cardinals just seem to have the Dodgers’ number. St. Louis is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings and 25-8 when they play near the Arch. That’s 70 percent in this series overall, 70 percent with Wainwright overall, 75 percent in St. Louis, and momentum is on our side against an up-and-down pitcher.
Today's Totals
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Oakland at Boston (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at Florida (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Pittsburgh at San Francisco (10 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Philadelphia at Arizona (9:40 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Colorado at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Houston at Chicago Cubs (7 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Detroit at Texas (8 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)
That's it for today. Jumping back in with the totals, but treading pretty lightly with all of them. This may not last long.
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