Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
100 Dime ---- RED SOX (With Lester) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over ORIOLES (With Guthrie)

Did I or did I not tell you I smelled two huge plays this week? I already cashed in, albeit not the way I expected, on my 75-dime easy winner on Arizona Thursday night as they blasted Pittsburgh in the late innings, 11-4. Tonight, I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on the run line in a similar situation. Honestly, I can't see a single situation in which the Baltimore Orioles have a chance to keep this game within five runs tonight. Boston is in a situation they're not used to being in... catch up mode. They find themselves two-and-a-half games behind the AL East leading NY Yankees and although it's still way too early to start panicking, you know it's in the back of their minds that they need to get wins in games like the one they have in front of them tonight. A team they've absolutely dominated in recent meetings limps back into Fenway tonight in hopes of getting another shot at Jonathan Papelbon. Baltimore left the bases loaded against the Red Sox closer last night in a 3-1 loss as the final two hitters of the inning struck out. That, my friends, was about the best chance the Orioles are going to have in this series of grabbing a road win.

Boston's bats never really got going against Bradley Bergesen, but still managed to squeak out a 3-1 win behind Brad Penny. They scored two in the fourth and one in the fifth, but that's surprisingly all they would need. Tonight it's going to be much different. First off, you can't expect me to believe Boston is only going to score three runs against a struggling Jeremy Guthrie, can you? Secondly, Jon Lester is more than capable of holding his own at home vs. a team he shut out the last time he faced them. Before tonight's 3-run output by the Boston hitters, the Red Sox had scored 6, 10, 4, and 12 runs vs. the Orioles the last four times they have met.

Back to Guthrie... he's been flat out awful against Boston recently (4 innings, 8 hits and 8 runs in his last outing vs. the BoSox) and on the road (3-4 in nine starts with a 6.34 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 49 innings). Over his last three road starts, Guthrie has allowed 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings of work and the last time his overall ERA has been under 5 was back on May 30. Since then, Guthrie has been hit hard while struggling a bit with control (over 2 walks per game). In his career vs. Boston, his numbers have been respectable but not great (1-2 record, 4.01 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in eight starts), but the number that sticks out most to me is the fact the Red Sox hit .285 as a team vs. Guthrie. If the Red Sox can hit .285 collectively tonight, they'll have no problem clobbering Baltimore (as I expect them to do).

For Boston, how could you not want Lester on the hill at home in this situation? Forget his 8-7 record overall and concentrate more on his 8-0 career record (in 10 starts) vs. Baltimore. That's right, Lester has OWNED the Orioles in his career, not only winning eight times with no losses, but allowing just 15 earned runs in 62 innings of work. As previously mentioned, Lester last faced Baltimore on June 29th (in Baltimore) and he was absolutely filthy, tossing seven innings of five-hit, scoreless ball while recording not a single walk and striking out eight in the process. LESTER OWNS BALTIMORE and he'll prove it again tonight. Not only that but he's been very effective at home recently, not allowing more than two earned runs in his last four home starts. Lester + Fenway Park + Baltimore's offense = monster Boston win.

Want more proof? Boston has won 50 of the last 66 meetings with Baltimore, 27 of the last 33 vs. the O's in Boston, and 22 of the last 27 Lester starts at home. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 1-5 in their last six overall, 1-4 in Guthrie's last five starts vs. teams from the AL East and 60-130 in the last 190 games vs. a lefty starter. Boys, it doesn't get much easier than this. Boston wins this one going away. Play Boston on the run line as your top play of the day.