[G-men]

vegas-runner | MLB RunLine Thu, 07/02/09 - 8:10 PM

triple-dime bet 964 KAN +1.5 (-130) Bodog vs 963 CWS
Analysis:
*** MLB 3* RUN-LINE GAME of the WEEK ***



CHEN +1.5 (RL) -130 over Buehrle

Now as much as I was tempted to Bet the Royals on the ML...Feeling that they are in a great spot to take GM1 of the Series...Especially since the last time CWS came into KC, they ended up Sweeping the Royals...

So I really expect them to be ready for Tonight's Home Game...and more importantly, looks like a nice let-down spot after just sweeping the Indians on the Road...



But with that said...the TRUE VALUE based on my "Projected Finals Model" shows that at anything less than -150...Getting +1.5 Runs in this spot is a very profitable...And couple that with the fact, 3 different Outfits all bet this game Under...and the decision actually wasn't very difficult at all...



Bottom Line is that we have done all this Damage in MLB by following my Projections...then seeking additional support and confirmations based on added info throughout the day...So when my Projections show that with the +1.5 runs, it increases our chances for Cashing this bet much more than on the ML...and more important based on the assigned price to back them...we are getting an Overlay...then I'll go ahead and pass up the +130...and lay -130 without any hesitation...



And although they should get the Home Win on the ML...Let's go ahead and curb our greed some, and instead make the bet which offers the most value, with the best chance of cashing...by grabbing the +1.5 with the ROYALS tonight...VR