Ferringo is becoming the Lang of baseball
This is why I always say I'm the best handicapper with the worst luck:
7-Unit Play. Take #973 Boston (-125) over Baltimore (7 p.m.)
Note: This is my Game of the Month.
I watched John Smoltz’s first start and I have to say, I was impressed. Smoltz had a very shaky first inning that can pretty clearly be attributed to his year-long absence from facing Major League hitting. But what impressed me was that he bounced back from that poor start to settle in and dominate. He was hitting 93 and 94 mph on the gun and he looked like he had really nice stuff out there on the hill. I think that he has a huge bounce back performance tonight. In 2005 he got crushed for seven runs in just over one inning in his Opening Day start after years in the bullpen. He bounced back to strike out 15 in his next outing. I think he’s got the same thing in him today. On the other side is Rich Hill. Hill is incredibly streaky and has a fat 12.01 ERA in two starts at home this year. Not good. He has a 6.03 ERA on the season and he is known to either be light’s out or lit up. Further, Hill averages just about five innings per start. That means that we could get into the O’s bullpen – No. 24 of 30 in MLB – early in this one. Oh, and the Red Sox kill left handed pitching. They have for years. This season they are 18-6 against lefty starters and that includes a 10-2 mark in their last 12, a 17-4 mark in their last 21 and, recently, a 7-1 mark since May 31. In those last eight games against a lefty starter the average score was Red Sox 7.5, Opponent 3.75 with Boston outscoring those foes 60-30. On top of that, the Sox are 48-23 in their last 71 games against a left handed starter and a stellar 11-3 in their last 14 road games. And that’s key: they have been playing well lately. And on top of that they play well in Baltimore. The Red Sox are 60-26 in their last 86 meetings in Baltimore and 49-15 in their last 64 games against the Orioles. On top of that the Red Sox have won all five meetings this year, have won eight straight in the series, and have won 12 of 13 dating back to last year. Boston just has their number. I know that it’s a bit risky to go this big on John Smoltz since he is not yet a proven commodity in his comeback. But that’s also why we’re getting the odds that we are in this spot. I have nothing but respect for Smoltz. And after a shaky first outing I think he’s on a mission. Backing that up is the fact that A) his opposing pitcher isn’t great, B) the opposing pitcher is a lefty and the Red Sox dominate lefties, C) the Sox have been playing great baseball and are locked in, D) the Sox didn’t play well behind Smoltz the first time out and want to make it up to him, E) the Sox are playing a team which they have beaten at a 76-percent rate over the last three years. We have motivation, matchups, talent and line value all working in our favor. I think it’s worth the play.
I just don't even have anything to say, except that whenever I lose a big play it's always the same as this one - just a joke. We were up 10-1 late in the game and lost. That's a monumental f*#k^ng joke. That's a losing night, and that means that we didn't win four of five days. I guess that makes me a bad handicapper, right? Just like when I had a GOTW in May on Toronto, they were up 7-1 in the seventh inning with Roy Halladay on the mound, and Baltimore came back to win 12-10 to cost us 5.5 Units. Those two games represent a $2,950 swing. Again, I guess that's my bad then. Should have had Baltimore both days, right?
I picked up +120 Units and $9,500 for my $100 bettors in 36 days to start the year. I've turned a profit in back-to-back seasons, including a +300 Unit season in 2007. Bottom line: nothing has changed. Still going to do work on the diamond and still want to have you on board with me. Like I always say, it's a long season. I am confident that I am one of, if not THE, best MLB handicapper in the country and I think that my past performance can back that up. But that doesn't mean I'm immune to a down period. And the bottom line is that I'm going to turn a profit for this season. I guarantee it. And I'm not one for guarantees. It's just that simple. It's a razor-thin margin between winning big and losing big, and if you're not ready to walk that edge, don't play.
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Originally Posted by jcygts6
