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06/28/09
11:21 AM Smart Money MLB Wiseguys just hit #951 San Francisco.

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06/28/09
11:55 AM Smart Money MLB Sharps taking OVER in #951 San Francisco.

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Today's Featured Capper
BEN BURNS
PICK: Twins/Cardinals OVER 8.5 (MLB)

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UNDER 22-6-1 in Rangers' last 29 home games

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TEAM TIPS
YANKEES: Chien-Ming Wang goes for his long awaited first victory of the season. The Yankees have destroyed the Mets in the first two games of this series. The Yankees have outscored the Mets, 14-1, and out-hit them, 22-4. The Yankees are 62-30 in their last 92 games during Game 3 of a series. However, Wang has been dreadful this season with a 0-6 mark and 11.20 ERA. The right-hander has yet to reach the sixth inning in a start this season. The Yankees are 1-4 in Wang’s past five interleague starts and 0-4 in his last four road outings. Wang is 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA in two career starts versus the Mets. The over is 9-3-1 in Wang’s last 13 starts. The Yankees have won six of the last eight meetings between the two teams. Derek Jeter has missed the past two games because of illness.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)

METS: Playing without injured outfielder Carlos Beltran, first baseman Carlos Delgado and shortstop Jose Reyes, the Mets have not been competitive with the Yankees. Veteran right-hander Livan Hernandez will try to get the Mets on the right track, although he is 0-3 with a 6.94 ERA in six lifetime starts versus the Yankees. Hernandez is 5-2 on the season with a 4.05 ERA. His only two losses have come to the Cardinals. Hernandez faced the Yankees on June 12 and didn’t get a decision in a 9-8 Yankees win. The Yankees scored six runs on seven hits against Hernandez in 5 1/3 innings. Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Jeter all smacked home runs off Hernandez. The over has cashed in five of Hernandez’s last seven starts when he’s faced teams with a winning record. The Mets are 3-10 in their last 13 Sunday games.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

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TEAM TIPS

Padres: There are multiple reasons why the Padres are such big underdogs. Not only has San Diego scored the fewest runs, but the Padres are 18-41 in their last 59 away matchups. The Padres also have lost 37 of their past 52 interleague games, including going 4-10 this season. Erratic Chad Gaudin gets the start. He’s 3-6 with a 5.60 ERA on the season. He has been worse on the road away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park going 2-4 with a 6.18 ERA. Gaudin, though, tied his career-high with 11 strikeouts in his last start at Seattle. He was the winning pitcher in a 9-7 victory against Seattle on Tuesday. Gaudin yielded two runs on four hits, while going seven innings. Gaudin has an 11-to-three strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts, both against the Mariners. The Padres are 7-20 in their last 27 games versus AL West clubs.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Texas is 17-6 (74 percent) in its last 23 home games versus an opponent with a losing mark. The Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 interleague games as chalk. Texas also has won 17 of its past 26 home contests. The Rangers have improved their defense and pitching, while missing the bat of injured slugger Josh Hamilton. This has contributed to the under being 42-17-1 in the Rangers’ last 60 games. Tommy Hunter was called up from Triple-A Oklahoma City to replace Matt Harrison, who was put on the disabled list with a sore left shoulder. Hunter was 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA for Oklahoma City. Hunter also stepped in for Harrison on May 29. The right-hander didn’t get a decision in Texas’ 6-3 victory against the Athletics. Hunter allowed three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings, giving up seven hits and three walks to go with one strikeout.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

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TOP TRENDS
The Yankees are 4-7 in their last 11 road games against a right-handed starter.
The Mets are 11-6 in their last 17 home games when going against a right-handed starter.

KEY INJURIES
Derek Jeter (illness) is questionable.
Carlos Delgado (hip), Carlos Beltran (knee) and Jose Reyes (calf) are all on the DL.

TOP TRENDS
The Padres are 5-17 in their last 22 interleague games against a team with a winning recordThe Under is 22-6-1 in the Rangers’ last 29 home games.
The Under is 9-1 in Fieldin Culbreth’s lasts 11 games behind home plate.

KEY INJURIES
Brian Giles (knee), Nick Hundley (wrist) and Jake Peavy (ankle) are all on the DL.
Josh Hamilton (abdominal) is on the DL.

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sportsbook spy
73% on mets
27% on yanks

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Lineup Alert MLB Atlanta SS Y. Escobar and CF N. McLouth are not expected to be in the starting lineup today against Boston.

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Lineup Alert MLB Philadelphia SS J. Rollins is now doubtful to play today against Toronto.

Lineups MLB Cleveland infielder Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for right-handed reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later.

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The club from the Bronx is 16-4 after four or more consecutive road games in 2009 and 12-3 OVER with a rested bullpen, which has throw two or less innings in each of the last two games since last year. The Mets are hoping Hernandez can provide a spark, since he is 14-7 (+11.2 Units) as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons. (Team's Record) Based on the current form of both pitchers, Hernandez moving to 16-5 OVER as a home underdog of +100 or higher (Team's Record), would not be a shocker.

[ManOfValue]

I'm considering taking Texas in this one..BOL ...