[stats]

Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic Jun 11 2009 9:00PM
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Reason: I'm playing on ORLANDO. Practically all the comments that I have read about this game have been the same. The general idea is that the Magic played their very best in Game 3 and that the Lakers did not (Kobe "choked" in 4th) and yet the Magic still barely won the game. They feel that the Lakers will bounce back with a better effort and that the Magic have nowhere to go but down. Practically all the people that I have spoken to have had a similar opinion. I disagree with their logic. Let me start by saying that I have a lot of respect for the Lakers. They're very talented. They're very well coached. They're very hungry. They've also been very good to me as I've gone 6-0 ATS with my last six 'sides,' when playing on or against the Lakers, incl. 2-0 in this series. In four of those cases, I played on the Lakers. In two, I played against them. So, it's not that I'm "anti-LA." Rather, it's just that I feel much the same way about the Magic and am "pro Orlando." The Magic are more talented than people still realize. Stan Gundy has proven to be a much better coach than many gave him credit for. He gets his team ready and he's had them at their best in their biggest games. His play-calling, in my opinion, has been excellent. Keep in mind that the Magic are only a missed layup away from being up 2-1 in this series and that they defeated the Lakers in both regular season meetings. Let's also remember that the Magic just defeated the defending champs, defying the odds by winning Game 7 at Boston, and then more or less had their way with the top-seeded Cavaliers. Those victories were arguably more impressive than LA's series victories over Houston and Denver. Because the Magic won the last game, everyone figures that the Lakers can't lose two in a row. Therefore, we're getting a much better line to work with than Orlando bettors were for the last game. Although it doesn't guarantee it, the number is now low enough that a SU victory will very likely also result in an ATS victory. Why is the number lower? While, as mentioned earlier, many think that the Lakers will play better and they still don't believe in the Magic. Surely, Kobe and the mighty Lakers can't lose twice in a row? Sure, the Lakers will naturally be looking to bounce back with a victory. However, I don't believe that there's any reason why the Magic can't also bring their top A-Game once again. In fact, I feel that the Game 3 victory will give the Magic even more confidence and giving them the true belief that they actually have a chance. Additionally, that victory helped to take some pressure off. Now, they know that at least they're not going to get swept and that they got the Orlando fans a long-awaited playoff victory. With that "monkey off their back" it should allow them to shoot freely and easily - not that they need any help in the shooting department after shooting 62.5% last time out. The Magic are now 4-1 SU when trailing in a playoff series. On the other hand, even counting the last game as an ATS win, (some would have pushed) the Lakers are still only 3-8 ATS the last 11 when leading in a playoff series. Note that they're also an ugly 8-18 ATS their last 26 games in the NBA Finals. The Magic are 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they were home favorites of three points or less. With Game 3 finishing well above the total, the over/under line has climbed from the high 190s that it was in Game 3 to the low 200s for tonight's game. That's worth noting as the Lakers are a money-burning 7-15 ATS the last 22 times that they played a road game with a total ranging from 200 to 204.5. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Magic are a profitable 13-6-1 ATS (16-4 SU) when playing a home game with a total in that range. Playing at home where they've won five straight and eight of nine, I expect the Magic to "do the unthinkable" and hand Kobe and co. their second straight loss, covering the very small number along the way. I successfully went against the Magic for my NBA GOY (98-80 winner with Milwaukee on 4/13) but I'm playing ON them for my *Playoff GOY

[LUCKYME1]

BEN BURNS LOST ALREADY WITH FLORIDA MARLINS (ANNNIHILATOR PLAY)

NOW HIS PERSONAL FAVORITE IS

I'm laying the price with WASHINGTON. It's not all that often that you find a team, with a record as poor as the Nationals, favored in this price range. It does happen occasionally though and in this case, I feel that the line, which has now fallen consideraby from its opening number, is actually very fair. That's because, in my opinion, this is a "pitching mismatch." John Lannan has become a consistent workhorse for the Nationals and after producing a solid 3.91 ERA last season he’s bested that so far this season, as he's got a 3.68 ERA so far. He’s 2-0 with four no-decisions in his six home starts this season. Lannan also has an outstanding 1.76 ERA at home and he's held opponents to a paltry .233 batting average here. He’s already faced the Reds twice in his career and he’s held them to just 10 hits in 11 2/3 innings. Cincinnati is one of the weaker offensive teams in the league and this is especially true when they’re on the road. Missing Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto has made things even tougher on an already weak Reds offense. That makes defeating John Lannan an even tougher task. Adding to the concerns for Cincinnati Thursday afternoon is that they are sending Micah Owings to the mound. The right-hander is 1-5 on the road this season and has lost four straight decisions. Owings has only averaged five innings per start over the last four weeks and he has a 5.48 ERA in his career day games. Indeed, Owings may not last long here. With 25 hits allowed in his last 19 2/3 innings, Owings is in poor form right now. Washington has hit the ball well in day games this season as they are tied with the Giants for 5th out of the 16 teams in the National League. Conversely, the Reds' .246 batting average in day games is only getting worse as the absence of Votto has hindered their hopes of turning things around offensively. I expect Lannan to continue to be the most consistent pitcher in the Nationals rotation, out pitching Owings and helping the Nationals get back on track. *Personal Favorite*