25 top nba finals' betting angles
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EASTERN/WESTERN CONFERENCE TRENDS
The EASTERN CONFERENCE has won seven straight NBA Finals games against the spread after the West had won eight of the prior 10.
Overall, since ’97, the WESTERN CONFERENCE holds a 37-29 SU edge, but the ATS series is tied 32-32-2.
The EASTERN CONFERENCE has only been the FAVORITE in 21 of the last 67 NBA Finals’ games. Their record in that role: 18-3 SU & 12-9 ATS.
The WESTERN CONFERENCE has accumulated a 33-10 SU & 22-19-2 ATS mark as chalk in the NBA Finals since ’97.
FAVORITE/UNDERDOG TRENDS
Dating back to ’97, ROAD TEAMS playing as FAVORITES or in pick em’ spreads are 12-2 SU & 9-4-1 ATS.
The UNDERDOG team won four of the six games in the 2008 NBA Finals against the spread.
SMALL HOME FAVORITES have been a great bet in the NBA Finals, as those laying 4-1/2 points or less are 18-4 SU & 15-7 ATS since ’97.
It’s been a dangerous proposition to lay big points in the NBA Finals of late. Dating back to 2000, FAVORITES of 7-1/2 points or more are 9-3 SU but just 2-9-1 ATS.
OVER/UNDER TRENDS
UNDER has been the total of choice in NBA Finals games of late, 10-6 over the course of the last three series’.
Thursday’s Game 1 of the ’09 Finals between Orlando and the Lakers will be the first Finals’ game in over 12 years with a total of 200 or more.
In the last 20 NBA Finals’ games with posted totals of 190 or above, the OVER has been the winning total 12 times, as opposed to 8 UNDER’s.
SERIES GAME NUMBER TRENDS
The HOME TEAM is 5-1 SU & ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals dating back to 2003.
Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone UNDER the total five straight times.
The HOME TEAM is also 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in Game 2 of the NBA Finals since ’04, with the last four teams owning home court advantage in the series going up 2-0.
Although HOME TEAMS own a 4-1 SU edge in the L5 Game 3’s of the NBA Finals, the ROAD TEAMS have swept the last three ATS.
The EASTERN CONFERENCE has owned Game 4 of the NBA Finals of late, going 5-1 SU & ATS since ’03.
FAVORITES have also dominated Game 4 in the NBA Finals, 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS since ’97.
Home court advantage virtually disappears once Game 5 of the NBA Finals arrives, as the last 18 games from then on have been split 9-9 SU with ROAD TEAMS owning a distinct 12-6 ATS edge.
OVER has been the correct total wager in nine of the last 13 NBA Finals Game 5’s and beyond.
SEED NUMBER TRENDS
There have been three teams in the NBA Finals playing as seeds #3 or lower since ’02. They have performed very well: At home, those teams are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in that span. On the road, they are 5-4 SU & 5-2-2 ATS.
#1 seeds have had some trouble protecting the home court vs. non-#1 seeds, just 3-7 SU & 2-6-2 ATS since ’01 in the NBA Finals. However, on the road they are 6-1 ATS in that same time frame.
SCORING TRENDS
The benchmark point total for HOME TEAMS to reach is 96 points in the NBA Finals. When doing so, they are 26-5 SU & 18-11-2 ATS since ’97.
When HOME TEAMS have eclipsed the 92-point mark in the NBA Finals, OVER the total is 23-9 since ’97. When they don’t score 93 points or more, the UNDER is 31-3.
For ROAD TEAMS, the magic-mark seems to be 93 points. When they reach that total, they are 14-7 SU & 19-1-1 ATS since ‘98.
Although a point total for any team of 80 or less this year seems unlikely between the Magic and Lakers, past ROAD TEAMS that have failed to eclipse the 80-point mark are just 2-16 SU & ATS in the NBA Finals since ’97
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