[InTheHole]

BEN Burns PERSONAL FAVORITE (9-2-1 L12 MLB!)
Play DETROIT TIGERS

I'm laying the price with DETROIT. Those who haven't followed baseball closely this season might be surprised to see the Tigers listed as favorites over the Red Sox, particularly with "Dice-K" on the mound for Boston up against rookie Rick Porcello for the home team. However, in my opinion, Detroit is favored for good reason and given the matchup, the price is actually very reasonable. For starters, the Tigers are a profitable 15-7 (+6.1) at home. The Red Sox are just 12-16 (-6.7) away from Fenway. The Tigers are hitting .275 and scoring six runs per game at home. The Red Sox are hitting .252 and scoring just 4.4 runs per game on the road. As for Dice K, (Daisuke Matsuzaka) while he did pitch very well against Detroit last year, he's really struggled this season. In fact, that's putting it kindly. Last time out, he lasted only five innings and allowed a whopping 12 baserunners, nine hits and three walks. He also threw four wild pitches. He has yet to pitch past the sixth inning all season. Overall, he's 0-3 (Boston is 0-4, -5) with an awful 8.82 ERA and 2.327 WHIP in four starts. In two road starts, he's got a 12.00 ERA and 3.167 WHIP. While Boston's starter has struggled, Detroit sends red hot Rick Porcello to the mound. Porcello is 5-0 with an outstanding 1.50 ERA his last five starts, averaging six complete innings in those starts. The Tigers won those five games by a combined score of 35-10. For the season, he's 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four home starts, giving up just one home run in those games. He'll have the advantage of facing Boston for the first time. The Tigers are 11-3 (+8.4) against teams with a winning record this season. With this game being played at Detroit and with Porcello in MUCH better current form than Matsuzaka, I expect them to improve on those numbers here. *Personal Favorite

[yisman]

Burns FP

Texas/Yankees under

Many assume that games between the Rangers and Yankees are typically going to be high-scoring. That's not always the case though. In fact, looking at the last 15 meetings and we find the UNDER at a profitable 8-5-2. The last five meetings have averaged just 8.8 runs. With Yankee Stadium proving to be "hitter-friendly," thus far, we've got a high over/under number (opened at 10.5 and climbed to 11 at some shops and now back to 10.5) to work with. I won't be surprised if this evening's game also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting.

Burnett is coming off a gem vs. these same Rangers, which saw him allow just three hits through six shutout innings. That was the sixth time that he has faced Texas and he allowed four earned runs or less in all six games. He had a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in those games with the 'under' going 4-1-1. That includes a 3-0-1 mark since Burnett moved over to the American League.

While it's true that the Rangers will be getting a second look at him in a short time (which can be helpful to hitters) I think the fact that Burnett pitched so well is more important, as he'd gone through a tough stretch and has now delivered two quality starts in his last three. He's a "streaky" pitcher and when "on," he's capable of dominating - even against a lineup that has just seen him. It should also be noted that the Rangers, who are expected to be without slugger Josh Hamilton, typically don't hit nearly as well outside of Texas. While their offensive stats at home are great, the Rangers are averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road and hitting only .249.

Padilla managed to avoid the Yankees in the recent series. He was 'ok' in last season's start against them, allowing four runs through six complete innings. He had five K's and one walk. He was very sharp in his lone start here at New York though, allowing just three hits (and two runs) through 6 2/3 innings. While this is a new version of Yankee Stadium, the point is that he wasn't bothered by pitching under the 'big city lights.'

More importantly, Padilla has been dominant of late. In his last three starts he's gone 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a terrific 1.57 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. He went at least seven complete innings in all three start, including eight in two of them - he didn't allow a home run in any of them. For the season, he's got a 2.08 ERA and a very stingy 0.807 WHIP on the road. It should be noted that Padilla is coming off the disabled list for a strained shoulder and that he hasn't pitched since mid-May. That was one of the reasons this didn't quite make the cut as a "guaranteed"selection. All the same, I feel the 'under' is worth considering.

[LUCKYME1]

Ben Burns Game Of The Year

Pit Penguins