[InTheHole]

EXPERT: Stephen Nover
REASON FOR PICK: I'll lay this short price with a much superior starting pitcher in Josh Johnson against journeyman Tim Redding and a banged-up Mets club.

Johnson is having a great comeback season. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs during his past seven starts and only twice during that span has he given up three runs. His ERA is an impressive 2.67.

Redding is a journeyman who struggled mightily against the Marlins last year. His ERA was 7.76 versus Florida.

The Mets are missing Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Ryan Church.

This is a one-unit play for me.

[LUCKYME1]

FREE PICK
Stephen Nover | MLB Total
free pick922 BAL / 921 DET Under 9 Bookmaker.com Analysis:
Who's the hottest pitcher in baseball right now? You can't be faulted for automatically saying Zack Greinke. But you can also argue for Justin Verlander.

Verlander is 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts. His strikeout-to-hit count is 60-to-24. He's only allowed 10 walks during this span. Verlander has a strong track record against Baltimore, too. In four starts versus the Orioles, he's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Detroit's key bullpen arms are rested.

The key to making this under work, though, is Baltimore starter, Jeremy Guthrie. He's 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA. On the surface, this isn't very impressive. But keep in mind, Guthrie has pitched against teams in the toughest division, the AL East. He has faced very strong offenses going against the Yankees three times, the Blue Jays twice while also facing the Red Sox, Rays, Rangers and White Sox.

Guthrie is off a confidence-building victory against Toronto. He is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA at home. The Tigers have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last seven games. Nobody in the Detroit lineup has more than five career at-bats against Guthrie.

I can see Guthrie matching Verlander in a well-pitched game that goes under this total.